Trump, Biden, the Election, and the Gong Show

buster · July 16, 2024, 12:04:36 PM

The assassination attempt on Trump, the mispeaking of Biden, and the presidential voting system in the USA guarantee Trump will win if Biden stays in the race. If the Democrats replace Biden they have a fighting chance.

This BBC article lists the possible replacements in a simple, clear manner. I hope it's Gretchen because she's the prettiest, as well as being a good politician.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80ekdwk9zro

ssfc72 · July 19, 2024, 08:33:04 AM

It amazes me that a convicted criminal, such as Trump, can run for President of the US.

Jason · July 19, 2024, 09:09:05 PM

Quote from: ssfc72 on July 19, 2024, 08:33:04 AMIt amazes me that a convicted criminal, such as Trump, can run for President of the US.

Ah, but it's all fixed by the Sleepy Joe and his corrupt administration! It's a witchhunt, I say, a witchhunt. No President has EVER been treated the way I, I mean "he", has (lost myself there). If he takes off his shirt, you can see his scars. UNFAIR!!!!

I entirely agree with you, Bill. And now they're making it so future presidents are immune from any crimes as long as they can argue it was an "official" act, an overly broad and useless term. He's the military leader there so does that mean anything he does with it (an official act) is fine?

But seriously, all the other charges against him will likely be dropped with the SCOTUS decision on presidential immunity. The other charges won't be tried until after the election. And presidents can't be prosecuted while in office (before this SCOTUS decision, even) so he'll pardon himself at the end of the term or step down weeks before he has to and have his VP do it. That's assuming there will be another fair US election ever again.

Buster, you're right. I wouldn't say guaranteed, though. There's something in the US known as the October surprise. Generally, something happens just before the election and tosses it all in the air. Hilary Clinton might have won if it wasn't for her October surprise (i.e. deleted emails). Maybe somebody will attempt a hit on Biden. Maybe, it will come out that Trump had sex with an underage girl (or even worse for MAGA Republicans, a non-white boy). The MAGA cultists will believe it's fixed but real Republicans might not. And swing voters aren't likely to fall for the "fix" schtick.

There's hope, but it's rapidly diminishing. I estimate a 5% chance that Biden can still pull it off. He will have to get every Democrat in America out to vote and have Republicans (the non-MAGA) crew sit it out because they won't vote for Democrats but can't stomach Trump anymore.

But if the Democrats replace Biden with someone good, they could have a 40% chance. Every day counts. The longer it takes, the harder it will be to win. Playing dirty might help, too. MAGA Republicans and Trump aren't nice, the Democrats can't play nice to beat them. They can't afford to.

BusterE · July 21, 2024, 10:16:36 PM

Looks as if Harris will be the candidate. If you don't know much about her, here's an easy summary. BBC again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2501n5rvvno

ssfc72 · July 22, 2024, 08:15:41 AM

She won't stand a chance. No criminal record. :-)

Jason · July 26, 2024, 03:06:59 AM

Quote from: ssfc72 on July 22, 2024, 08:15:41 AMShe won't stand a chance. No criminal record. :-)

LOL. I hope that doesn't become a necessary job requirement for the office. Trump has certainly shown it's not a dealbreaker.

Jason · July 26, 2024, 03:15:21 AM

Quote from: buster on July 16, 2024, 12:04:36 PMThis BBC article lists the possible replacements in a simple, clear manner. I hope it's Gretchen because she's the prettiest, as well as being a good politician.

Even before reading the article, I knew she couldn't choose a woman. It's bad enough for a certain segment of the population that she's a woman, more so because she's a racialized one. She has to pick a boring white dude from one of the swing states, maybe even a Christian, as hard as they are to find among Democrats. If age didn't matter Andy Beshear (Kentucky governor) would fill the bill.

Tim Walz, Minnesota Governor, formerly worked 20 years for the National Guard, has religious convictions and a plain-spoken manner. Senator Mark Kelly looks good, too, former astronaut and from Arizona, a swing state that could open up the midwest. Husband to Democratic Gabby Giffords who was seriously injured in a mass shooting. And he has occasionally criticized the Biden Administration. While that could cause some tension with Harris, it's sure to make him more presentable to Republicrats (Red-leaning Democrats) and Independents.

Which one of the MEN would you choose, Buster? "Pretty" might deliver the men's vote but often has the opposite effect on women.

buster · July 27, 2024, 03:43:49 PM

"Which one of the MEN would you choose, Buster?"

Not familiar with any of them enough to make a choice. No idea.

buster · July 27, 2024, 05:51:47 PM

Sorry I put this thread in the wrong section Jason. But anyway picked this up today.

"Bloomberg reported on Saturday that Harris is considering a wide range of vice presidential candidates from the Democratic Party's bench. However, sources familiar with the process indicate that a short list has emerged, featuring three elected officials with nationwide appeal: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz."

Jason · July 28, 2024, 01:08:52 AM

Quote from: buster on July 27, 2024, 05:51:47 PMSorry I put this thread in the wrong section Jason. But anyway picked this up today.

No biggie. I never noticed. But I'll move it now.

Jason · August 04, 2024, 01:09:22 AM

I noticed in several polls that Harris is gaining on Trump in some swing states and ahead in others. But most are within the error rate so statistically tied. It should make for an interesting election.

The Harris and the Dems seem to be using "weird" more to describe Trump. Good choice. The Democrats need to play a little bit dirtier and use some names since Trump is getting way so much of it. But "weird" fits the bill without being nasty.

The Trump campaign or maybe just Trump appears to be flailing suggesting that Harris isn't Black. And Trump even said she failed the bar. Sheesh. Are they going to appeal to their voters and the white supremacists or try to reach the moderates? They're going to need to if they want to win. And moderates aren't going to put up with that kind of foolishness.

The Republicans keep saying that the Dems are unfairly saying Trump is a fascist and a threat to democracy. Meanwhile, Trump is telling Christian groups they only need to vote him for once and never have to vote again. Scary.

Jason · August 08, 2024, 10:19:17 PM

Looks like Kamala Harris made a good choice as a running mate. He's as energetic. And he complements her perfectly filling out the areas where she isn't the strongest, like appealing to Mid-Western and rural voters. I watched Harris speaking in Pennsylvania before a huge crowd followed by Walz. They both inspired me despite me not being (or wanting to be) an American. While they're still the underdogs, they have the momentum. Even if Trump still wins, It won't be a cakewalk. Some in the news are talking about what happens in the case of a tie. It goes to Congress like this:

1. The House of Representatives chooses the President. If they can't agree, then...
2. The Senate decides. If they can't agree...
3. The next person in succession becomes the President, the Speaker of the House.

One fascinating feature (bug?) is that the House of Representatives isn't limited to those two. If a candidate receives some electoral votes, they can be chosen. So RFK Jr. could technically become the President although that'd be very unlikely.

Until recently, the House was likely to go Republican with the Democrats losing some seats unlike in the mid-terms. So they'd probably pick Trump but it's not clear. There are Republicans who are more moderate and would have reservations. Certainly, all the Demos would vote against that. The Senate could go either way but if tied, the VP decides. But can a VP vote on whether she can become President? I suspect so, but it'd be unusual! So we might not have a winner until January if the House has to decide. Potentially longer if it has to go to the Senate.

Jason · August 11, 2024, 06:01:42 PM

I guess this topic is dead.

buster · August 12, 2024, 09:54:14 AM

Not quite dead. It is worth looking at the consequences to the Republian party because the Harris is the opponent. To many of us Trump's speeches have always seemed erratic and disconnected. But some analysis apparently shows this has developed beyond that to confusion and repetition lately. His comments about her are silly. (She has a low IQ was one) He is, I suspect, unnerved by having a real opponent.

Try a Google search with the two words 'Trump dementia'.

Jason · August 20, 2024, 04:29:32 AM

Even more so now. I don't know if it's dementia so much as he's so used to fighting Biden that he's like a stuck record. Even without dementia, the older you are the more inflexible you can think. Neuroplasticity increases. He's talking about Harris more now but still was thinking that Biden would go into the convention and take back the nomination. He wishes. The whole Republican campaign is stuck. He was supposed to speak about the economy and did some stupid thing with different sizes of Tic Tacs. He might have cracked under the pressure.

Watch. He might not care because they plan to steal the election. Not that it'll succeed but he's so used to getting away with crime, he thinks he's untouchable.