Trump, Biden, the Election, and the Gong Show

[fox]

Is Harris really the underdog? Several recent polls show her ahead in the overall vote, and ahead in most of the swing states. Still early days, though.

[Jason]

She no longer is but her campaign still uses that as a talking point. That's understandable.

From what I've read, of the 7 swing states, she's ahead in 5, tied in 1 and behind in 1. However, 4 of the states she's ahead in are small enough to be within the margin of error. So they could be tied or Trump even ahead in a couple. But as the news points out, she has a lot of paths to victory, Trump doesn't have many.

[buster]

Good to have you back Mike.

"Is Harris really the underdog?"

I sat in our camper in Alabama and watched Trump defeat Clinton when the poles suggested a clear victory for her. A few things contributed to this loss, even though in the whole country she got more votes.

It's the electoral college that matters, not the popular vote. And the 'swing states' can be won with a slight shift in votes, so all state votes can be won or lost by minuscule margins.

The Republicans have supporters who always show up to vote, like the evangelical whites, the elderly, and the wealthy. The Democrats have many supporters but some of them don't show up at the voting booths, like the young, and the non whites. When the Democrats get all their supporters out, they tend to win.

The USA is the land of the free, and everyone is valued equally, though in practise 'some are less valued than others'. I heard tales in our time in the south that indicated what in polite terms would be called 'bias'. Harris lacks two qualities that some voters will not tolerate: she is not a man, and she is not white. (I was asked by a neighbour here within the last year, "Don't you think a business should be run by a man?")

People tend to get their news and views from social media and YouTube, so they can easily retain their in some cases idiotic beliefs. Those who believe the election was stolen is a surprising 1/3 of the population (NBC) when it should be approximately 0%.

[Jason]

I think you'll find this time around that abortion will get the Democrats out to vote. That awful 2025 plan calls for a federal ban on abortions. Trump can pretend to distance himself from it all he wants but it's his former advisors and chief staff (including his Chief of Staff) that wrote it. And unless I heard wrongly, J.D. Vance wrote the forward to it.

Hilary Clinton had that whole private email server issue land in her lap, rightfully or wrongfully and that's what did her in. Trump also ran a good campaign if I recall correctly. Nasty, but well-run.

If you look at the approval ratings, Trump isn't getting the fanfare he got first time around. And his campaign is terrible. All character attacks, no policy. But what's worse is that Trump seems less energetic, almost lethargic, this time around. I think the smaller rallies are really getting to him.

And remember he was defeated last time around. If the same people who voted for Biden in 2020 vote for Harris, she should get a comfortable win in the electoral college. But the wild card here is RFK, Jr. Now that's endorsed Trump, will his (even more wacko) supporters take their 5% to him, split some with the Democrats, or just not bother voting? Anti-vaccine nonsense used to be a left-wing conspiracy, now it's a right-wing conspiracy. And Trump's worshippers align with that view perfectly.

Regardless, the popular vote doesn't matter; it's the states, as you point out, Buster. I don't recall if Clinton was ahead in the swing states back then. Also remember that Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, played spoiler in that election. There's no doubt she sucked votes away from the Democrats.

But as Mike says, it's early.

[buster]

I still stand by what I wrote. I don't think if Harris wins it will be easy:


" It's the electoral college that matters, not the popular vote. And the 'swing states' can be won with a slight shift in votes, many state votes can be won or lost by minuscule shifts.

The Republicans have supporters who always show up to vote, like the evangelical whites, the elderly, and the wealthy. The Democrats have many supporters but some of them don't show up at the voting booths, like the young, and the non whites. When the Democrats get all their supporters out, they tend to win.

I heard tales in our time in the south that indicated what in polite terms would be called 'bias'. Harris lacks two qualities that some voters will not tolerate: she is not a man, and she is not white.

People tend to get their news and views from social media and YouTube, so they can easily retain their in some cases idiotic beliefs."

[buster]

I will add the Angus Reid poles

https://angusreid.org/us-election-polling-harris-trump-democratic-national-convention/

and note that they agree Trump is behind. They also note the white voters favour Trump by a lot. Go to the site and scroll and poke about. Lots of interesting stuff from a very reputable site. Clear and simple graphs. Democrats still have to get the vote out.

[Jason]

Let's not forget abortion, though. That gives Democrats a strong reason to vote, especially the youth vote or at least the female youth vote. Trump is the reason for Roe v. Wade being overturned and he wears it with pride. Plan 2025 has a goal of a federal ban on abortions although to be fair, he hasn't said he supports that. He wants to leave it to the states. But, he believes that the abortion pill shouldn't be sold. In states where abortion is practically banned, that may be the only way of getting one.

I'm not saying it will be easy for her. But I am saying that Democrats have a strong reason for showing up at the polls, not just for this reason but all the scary stuff in Plan 2025 and what many Democrats fear could be the end of democracy in the US.

Those are strong motivators if that information gets out there. And the Democrats have done a lot of fundraising since Harris took over the nomination. On the first day, Biden dropped out, she raised more money that day than Trump had for the entire month. And that was with Trump ahead.

You can be the pessimist. I'm going to play the role of optimist.

However, I'm worried about how much time is left until the election giving lots of opportunities for crap to happen. I find it amusing that when Biden stepped down, the US media wondered if there was enough time to switch gears. Meanwhile, our federal election campaigns are only a month long. I think that's too short but most Canadians likely think it's too long.

Thanks for the link. I love charts!

[Jason]

I still stand by what I wrote. I don't think if Harris wins it will be easy:

" It's the electoral college that matters, not the popular vote. And the 'swing states' can be won with a slight shift in votes, many state votes can be won or lost by minuscule shifts.

Nobody said it'd be easy. After having previously worked on campaigns for almost 20 years, I can say elections aren't easy. And nobody knows that like the NDP. I'm just pointing out that you haven't considered some other factors at play in the 2016 election and at play now.

Usually when someone says, "I stand by what I wrote", they're noting that they disagree with someone. Did you notice I said:

Regardless, the popular vote doesn't matter; it's the states, as you point out, Buster.

I even gave you credit. No good deed goes unpunished!

[Jason]

Some looks at polls by state here:

https://www.270towin.com/states/

I believe that Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan are swing states. Florida used to be one but seems to have gone Republican the last few cycles. I might be missing one. If you look up these states, the site suggests they're "too close to call". That's unsettling.

[buster]

" the site suggests they're "too close to call". That's unsettling. "

'Unsettling' is a very moderate word. I'm as close to ninety as I am to eighty, so I wont be around to watch the conflagration. You youngsters will live in the new world. But 'unsettling' doesn't seem to suit.

A close friend said to me about half a century ago. "You'd be surprised, Harry, how many people are just plain stupid." I don't have trouble really with a Republican being elected, though I tend to lean left. I have trouble with having Trump as the leader of the most powerful nation on the planet.

It's going to be close.

We have an American friend who is packed and ready to come to live with us. He is beyond upset.

Popular vote doesn't matter. It's their election procedure, designed to protect the powers of the individual states.

[Jason]

Popular vote doesn't matter. It's their election procedure, designed to protect the powers of the individual states.

It was designed because the constitutional framers didn't think ordinary people should be able to choose the President. The electoral vote system was created as an alternative to that (I took American history). The result is the same, but the impetus is different. The Senate, however, was to give smaller states more power than their population would suggest. So little Rhode Island has as much power in the Senate as mighty California.

Here's an enlightening video (11 minutes) about how Harris is increasing the margin with certain groups of voters and taking Republican support. She was behind in Latino votes by double digits and now she's ahead by double digits. She had a ~40 advantage with Black voters, now it's almost 80%! And she's gaining ground with young voters. Yes, I know you'll say they don't vote much. 50% of young voters do vote. They also discuss with some pollsters what it all means.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8yp0bQNL3E