The Fallout from Covid 19

[buster]

One of the unforeseen problems with Trump's plan to start of the workforce again, and let the chips fall where they might, is the effect this will have on younger people. If the hospitals are overrun with patients, and the staff too small to handle everything, and little Billy falls off his bike and seriously injures himself, and someone has a bowel blockage, and there is a 3 way car crash, what do all the people do? Wait til a new hospital is built, and new nurses and doctors are trained?

I think economic pain and its problems is better than for sure problems with a pandemic.

[William]

Vs.

Companies with no income for 4 months.  So, massive layoffs and bailouts.  High taxes to pay for these costs.  Declining GDP, so less tax.  More costs.  More high taxes.  Round and round we go.  Trump got the direction right.  We have to keep the economic engine running, because we need the money that will generate.  I don't see people who propose 4 months lockdown to voluntarily forgo their pays for 4 months.

[buster]

The 'back to work' can be done, but not Trump's way. I understand completely what you're saying.

My daughter's Maid of Honour from years back has a husband who is working in Singapore until December. My daughter and her friend are in touch every day. However,  Singapore has flattened the curve, anyone with the slightest symptoms is tested, and EVERY time he goes into a building, his temperature is taken.

The White House from the beginning should have been concentrating on test kits, recruiting hospital staff, respirators, new recovery rooms, and social distancing. The first battle is to protect the hospital system. Once that beachhead is secured, we move to limiting the movements of the enemy, and then finally to allowing limited and protected movement moving forward.

We should not send under equipped millions rushing into the gunfire with the battle yell 'Save Our Economy!' , when most know that this modern 'exchange of goods and services' is highly skewed in favour of a small percentage of us.

Edit; Just read this in the free Corona virus section of the Globe and Mail. Powell suggests we control the virus first, then get back to work. Interesting reading:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/us-business/article-feds-powell-says-us-may-be-in-recession-control-of-virus-to/

[fox]

.... Just read this in the free Corona virus section of the Globe and Mail. Powell suggests we control the virus first, then get back to work. Interesting reading:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/us-business/article-feds-powell-says-us-may-be-in-recession-control-of-virus-to/

Interesting read and rational thinking from the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. I hope that cooler heads like him will prevail in the U.S., where already more than 1,000 people have died from the virus.

[buster]

Two bits of news.

-Our friends trapped in Portugal, where they were the only people in the resort, got home very late Saturday evening. They had been going to a local store and buying enough food to cooks meals themselves. All our friends are back now, some with 'interesting' adventures on the way.

-The price of western crude is getting ready to slide under $4 a barrel. Some exotic coffees cost more than than, for one cup.

[Jason]

By the way, I don't think I have heard a single person anywhere say that it will be a four month lock down. The government is just, smartly, preparing for that if necessary. It could be weeks or it could be months. But when the Chair of the US Federal Reserve is saying we need to take strong measures to fight this first, then worry about the economy, that should tell you something, William. He also said that the government can afford it and the Reserve is prepared to lend more to the government, much more than what is being spent.

The argument that it will cause higher taxes with less taxes coming in and a downward spiral is to ignore that doing the opposite will cause huge human strife and economic strife. The US is looking at 100-200K deaths, not just illness, but death. And millions more that will be infected, many of them very sick. What kind of economic damage will that cause? Trump is, as he usually is, out of his mind and beyond his depth. And even now, is finally recognizing, that they're not going to back to normal by Easter.

[Jason]

Turns out transit, or at least the buses I took today had so few people that social distancing was easy. When I arrived at the station, there couldn't have been more than a dozen people there and most buses were in. Normally it's packed and most times of the day other than the evening. I heard through my bus driver friend, who also heads up the local ATU, that most buses have very light loads other than George and Lansdowne because those go to the college and university and some students couldn't go home so they're still in the dorms.

No Frills had very few people in it earlier tonight and I got through the socially-distanced line (markers and all) quite quickly. And even managed to pick up a couple of packages of toilet paper. Score!

Btw, William, you never answered my question about how you came across so much toilet paper. If you were hoarding, the next time I see you, I'm going to bite your leg, even if I have COVID-19. ;-) I've had to beg, borrow and steal from friends to get it until now.

[ssfc72]

By the end of this week, it will have been at least 14 days since the social distancing/stay at home regime has been in effect and I would therefore expect to see a dramatic dropoff in the number of new Covid cases being reported daily, in Ontario.
From what I have read about the Covid virus, it takes about 14 days before anyone who has the virus, whether they exhibit symptoms or not, to stop shedding the virus.

If there is not a dropoff in new Covid cases reported, by the end of this week in Ontario, then I expect the large numbers of people getting this plaque, is going to last for months and not just weeks.

[Jason]

That drop off in new cases is starting to occur in Quebec. And the articles I've seen suggest that the next week will tell if the measures are working.

That doesn't mean the virus will be halted and we can we ease up on the measures we're taking. If we did so, the numbers could shoot back up again. We need to diminish not just the new cases but the total numbers and that will take time. I think you're looking at month before restrictions begin to be lifted and it will be a slow process so they can watch the numbers after each week.

And then we'll get it again in the Fall, likely early Fall and in the Spring again before we have a vaccine. Even the experts are divided on whether the next wave will ease up or be worse.

But as the Royal Canadian Air Farce once said on a best of audio collection, "We're finally beginning to see a light at the end of the mind shaft."

We'll certainly see an end to it before the US does thanks to Trump's dilly-dallying and many Americans in general, just not taking it seriously. The US is the new epicenter for the virus globally.

[buster]

" I would therefore expect to see a dramatic drop-off in the number of new Covid cases being reported in Ontario."

I suspect it will he marginal if at all. As we improve testing, we will find more cases than we did before. As well, two weeks may not be enough. If we can have it and not be aware for a number of days, there was some spread during the first part of the 2 weeks. People are still working to keep the country going and could have spread it at work before the symptoms showed. We have an older woman who lives on our street, and her son lives with her. He is still going out to work. Pizzas are being made. Police are out and about and so on.

But I tend to be pessimistic. I suspect it is going to be awhile before the curve bends much. Hope I'm not correct.

I'm guessing a week at least from now to see measurable change. Hope you're right Bill and I'm wrong.

[ssfc72]

Well, apparently there is about a 5 day backlog/wait for test results to be processed in Ontario, right now. So I would therefore modify my estimate to about 19 days from now and then there should be a noticeable drop off in reported covid cases. :-)

I think that is one of the reasons they are giving for the current daily jump in reported cases, is due to the backlog in testing is gradually being reduced and therefore it appears that the reported cases of virus look to be increasing daily, but they probably are not. 

[Jason]

Just to note, Buster, I believe it was the Chief medical officer for Canada (not sure if that's her position) that said we will know in about a week's time if social distancing is working by the number of new cases. My guess is that researchers can account for confounding variables like new cases springing up just because of increased testing.

I don't think that means the measures will be eased up for some time to come since doing so would risk losing the progress we've made. And when the total numbers do eventually start to come down, the entire pandemic will actually last longer as a result of social distancing and self-isolation. A by-product of flattening the curve means the cases, while lesser, are going to be spread out. From what I understand, the point of these measures is to slow the number of new cases so they're not all occurring at the same time like what happened in Italy.


One thing I have noticed is that the death rate seems to be much less here than in other places around the world. It looks to be hovering about 1% when comparing present cases with deaths. Of course, that's not a perfect yardstick since the total cases includes new and old cases and deaths are more likely due to older detected cases. By older, I mean, even days ago.

It's strange to see how empty the streets of Toronto look from pics I've seen on the CBC. The look reminds me of apocalypse movies, coincidentally, because most of the population has died off due to some illness, usually having to do with zombies.

[ssfc72]

I was walking to the grocery store this morning and passed a house where the young woman was on the porch outside, screaming  at her spouse/whatever  about something she apparently didn't like that he was doing.
I think the divorce courts are going to get backed up with cases, with this stay at home policy, in effect. :-(

[Jason]

I was walking to the grocery store this morning and passed a house where the young woman was on the porch outside, screaming  at her spouse/whatever  about something she apparently didn't like that he was doing.
I think the divorce courts are going to get backed up with cases, with this stay at home policy, in effect. :-(

I shouldn't laugh but I did at this. I think you're right. But people who get divorced because they can't handle being around each other for extended periods probably shouldn't be married to each other. Although I guess anyone can drive you crazy if you see them too much.

[buster]

Things are getting a bit testy at our house.

Marilyn said I was being immature. I told her to get out of my fort!