Rate of Spread of COVID-19 in Canada

[Jason]

I'm trying desperately to start a new topic so it's not all bunched together in the COVID aftermath thread. Also, this topic isn't about the aftermath, it's about the hear and now. Buster mentioned 'time to double' in the media as a number to watch for the spread of COVID-19. The Chief Public Health Officer says there are reasons for cautious optimism as the time to double for case numbers was every 3 days at the end of March. It's now 10 days - for Canada, the number varies depending on which province you're in. That's the optimism part. The caution part is that we can't start letting up yet. I loved the way she put it:

To use another analogy, coming down from this epidemic curve will be like making our way down a mountain in the darkness we mustn't rush, or let go of our safety measures, or the fall will be hard and unforgiving.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-theresa-tam-says-reason-for-cautious-optimism-as-epidemic-growth/

[fox]

I hadn't seen the new 10 day doubling time before - that's good news. If you live in B.C. the news is better. They are getting few to no new cases and their curve is absolutely flat!

I think that in the case of Ontario and Quebec, much of the increase in cases is from seniors homes. Not a good thing if you live in one, and I hope that is addressed heartily. But if you live outside those homes, your risk is much lower. Especially in Peterborough right now. We are getting few to no new daily cases, and have now tested almost 1,400 people, with over 1,100 confirmed negative and about 200 "under investigation" whatever that means. Data from: https://www.peterboroughpublichealth.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/PPH-Situation-Report-for-Health-Care-Providers-April-14-2020-1.pdf.

[Jason]

I think somebody forgot a footnote in that report. I believe that "under investigation" means they're awaiting test results. You'll note that term isn't used in the most recent report. You can also view the daily update here:

https://www.peterboroughpublichealth.ca/your-health/diseases-infections-immunization/diseases-and-infections/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov/local-covid-19-status/

It was 54 for today but was 52 for several days.

Of course, it's important to note that while we are slowing down the spread, it's a long away from being over. If we let up now, we'll lose the gains we've made. But the other good story looks like that in terms of hospitals, we've slowed down the caseload enough that hospitals can handle it overall and in Ontario. There are some hospitals that are more strained than others, though.

As you've noted the situation in LTCs is still bad and in Quebec, quite horrific when you have all the staff walking off in one and a majority of staff leaving in others. But that's because we've neglected those homes for so long and infection protocols were so lax, because provinces let them be. There will be a reckoning coming for politicians in many provinces including Ontario for the years of neglect although Ford will likely blame most of it on the Liberals which isn't altogether unfair.

There is also a lot of concern and sometimes outright panic on Reserves. Maybe providing Reserves with clean drinking water and proper healthcare that met provincial standards might have helped. Half the reserves in Canada still don't have clean drinking water, some of them for more than 10 years, even locally. Curve Lake has been going on 7 years, I believe.

[Jason]

Curiously, Sweden is continuing to keep their schools running because children don't get very sick from COVID-19 if even at all. They're doing it to build herd immunity. Not sure if it's a good strategy since that will take quite a while but they'll get it faster than we will with that strategy. But so far they don't have a higher death rate.

[Jason]

The Toronto Star has posted an interesting article entitled, "Ontario has hit peak of COVID-19 cases, computer modeling suggests".

We did the right thing, we listened to the experts and, thanks to all of you, we have so far avoided the worst-case scenario that we were all dreading, Ford said as the COVID-19 case tally topped 12,000 with more than 600 deaths and confirmed infections continue to rise by about five per cent daily.

We're not out of the woods yet  far from it. We're still in the middle of a battle, Ford said.

I was mentioning to this my wife the other day that articles I had read at CBC and other places that were saying that restrictions would start being lifted soon, within weeks. You could tell this by looking at charts where you could see that the number of new cases was leveling off. So we've basically peaked in the number of cases. The same thing has happened in Peterborough for about the last week. Unfortunately, it's not even, the number of cases in LTCs is increasing and no wonder. Staff didn't have proper protection and everyone is living close together so it's hard to physical distance. I believe that Kawartha Lakes had a large number of cases for its population because of a major breakout at a couple of homes. It
was over 100 cases, the last I looked.

Of course, south of the border, the president has lost his mind, or never regained it. He's talking about reopening businesses when the didn't start social distancing until after us. I believe that only NYC and state is ready to start opening businesses but they were already hit hard and started early. Florida's numbers are going to sharply increase after some moron decided to open a major beach.

[fox]

I listened to the full Ontario news conference on TV. They emphasized that there are two separate dynamics going on in Ontario, one being community spread and the other being long-term care homes. The former is plateauing and is showing the effects of all the measures taken in Ontario. The latter is still getting worse and hasn't peaked. The daily reports we get combine the two and together, they make it look worse than it is from the perspective of risk to members of the public. They are rightfully being careful about easing isolation measures, but I can now see some light in the tunnel from that perspective. Getting Covid-19 under control in long term care facilities is going to take more work and more money. There is not only the potential to get many more cases in the facilities that have it, but also to have it enter facilities that don't. And the majority of facilities in Ontario have no known cases.

[Jason]

And the majority of facilities in Ontario have no known cases.

Did they say that in the conference? I just wonder because I'm hearing that a lot of LTC homes have cases so I didn't get that impression.

Btw, what you're saying about the two dynamics, I mentioned above. So I agree with you.

I think what will happen in LTC homes is that once they get their staffing requirements filled (many have walked off the job or gotten sick), the numbers in them will start to drop, too or they won't have any new cases. The homes were hit after the rest of us probably because they locked out the public as much as they could early on. But staff were will going out into the community. And they didn't have masks, gowns and gloves to the amounts that they needed so they likely were passing it on.

And when I mean more staffing, I mean getting nurses and a few doctors in there from nearby hospitals to fill in for the staff they don't have. In Toronto, they're practically begging for help. Quebec is bad, too. They province put out a call for any nurses and doctors to help the homes by coming in.

One cool story was that one of the MPs that quit the Trudeau cabinet is a medical doctor, Dr. Jane Philpott. So when she found out a home nearby for the mentally challenged had lost most of their staff, she put out the call for the nearby hospital to supply some staff and she rolled up her sleeves, donned her gown and mask and helped out herself. She's no longer an MP and had quit cabinet on principle and in solidarity with her friend, Jody Wilson-Raybould, who was ejected from the cabinet over her actions in the SNC-Lavalin affair.

[fox]

Did they say that in the conference? I just wonder because I'm hearing that a lot of LTC homes have cases so I didn't get that impression.

As I recall, yes they did, but I might have read it elsewhere. This CBC news article states that 1 of every 6 long term care homes in Ontario have COVID-19 outbreaks.

[buster]

We had over 1700 new cases in Canada yesterday. Bending the curve is a correct term, and makes us feel good. But it doesn't convey what is happening in my mind. It's sort of like losing $18,000 at the casino one day, and losing only $15,000 the next. It's better, and apparently not runaway, but it adds to the debt.

When the new cases approach zero, we'll know for sure we're winning. Good to see the bending.

This site has all kinds of neat graphs. I'd skip down the near the bottom of the article where stuff seems less arcane. There are many things to hover over and click.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

[Jason]

Thanks for the info. When is it considered an outbreak? I mean, how many people have to get it, one, two, more? I expect we see a few more before this is over. Plus, we're not doing enough testing. Everyone in an LTC should be tested but I guess the provincial government has said they intend to make that a priority.

[Jason]

We had over 1700 new cases in Canada yesterday. Bending the curve is a correct term, and makes us feel good. But it doesn't convey what is happening in my mind. It's sort of like losing $18,000 at the casino one day, and losing only $15,000 the next. It's better, and apparently not runaway, but it adds to the debt.

I can always count on you to find a dark lining in every cloud. Stop looking a gift-horse in the mouth, mate. But it's not a great analogy because the total caseload of a the day before doesn't add to the caseload of tomorrow. Most of those people today had it yesterday so we can't double count them. So using your analogy, this would be like losing $15,000 one day and then getting back $13,000 the next day and therefore you're losing another $2000. So the total would be $17,000, more debt but not as much as you'd think. And remember the exponential talk? Well, it goes the other way, too. As there are less new cases, that means less new cases that can pass it on.

Sure, it doesn't mean it's over but it means progress. I don't think the number of new cases will ever get to zero but it it doesn't have to. As more people with it recover, it will overtake the number of new cases but there will likely be new cases for years. The cases will disappear and then pop up again, not just this Fall and Spring next year. Even with a vaccine, there will be cases because not everyone will take it. And it will likely mutate into something else in a few years, just as I believe that COVID-19 is a variant of SARS. It was originally called SARS-CoV-2.

There will be more pandemics. If we don't get a handle on climate change, they will start occurring more often. too. My hope is that people will have realized during this pandemic that they don't have to drive as much, shop as much, take trips on planes as much and there will be that tiny little bit of fear of getting this or something else. That doesn't sound hopeful but it will cause a reduction in GHG (Greenhouse gases) emissions. How long it will last, who knows?

[fox]

I can always count on you to find a dark lining in every cloud. Stop looking a gift-horse in the mouth, mate. But it's not a great analogy because the total caseload of a the day before doesn't add to the caseload of tomorrow. Most of those people today had it yesterday so we can't double count them. So using your analogy, this would be like losing $15,000 one day and then getting back $13,000 the next day and therefore you're losing another $2000. So the total would be $17,000, more debt but not as much as you'd think. And remember the exponential talk? Well, it goes the other way, too. As there are less new cases, that means less new cases that can pass it on.
....

Before Buster gets back to you, let me point out that he was talking about NEW cases, not total cases. So although I agree with your general logic about bending the curve, your analogy is not correct.

[Jason]

Perhaps but his still isn't correct because as the number of cases drop off, so do the number of people already who have COVID-19. So the total debt (or total number of cases) is not day 1 + day 2. Because some people on day 1 won't be a case on day 2.

[fox]

You are correct. Some sites include the number of resolved cases, which you can subtract off.