Is World War III coming?

[Jason]

There are a number of similarities between the time before WWII and our present situation. Perhaps I'm too alarmist, but I would suggest that they could set the stage for, at the very least, a regional conflict. Whether we would call that a world war is a matter of semantics, since it would involve multiple countries and/or NATO.

• An aggressive authoritarian power bent on territorial expansion and restoring the glory of a former state
• Continual peace overtures to end or prevent war to a non-cooperative nation
• Complacency - While NATO countries are individually providing support for Ukraine, they haven't addressed multiple incursions into those of member countries
• Europe is beginning to increase military spending
• Potential Isolationism of the US - Trump has suggested the US might not honour its NATO commitments if Russia invades Europe
• Putin and oligarchs in his inner circle want to regain former territories they lost after the Soviet Union fell
• Alliances - NATO must respond if a nation in the pact is attacked; in WWII, the UK and France had a pact to defend Poland
• China is increasingly flexing its muscles toward Taiwan, and buying Russian oil when others won't in violation of international treaty
• North Korea has been supplying weapons and personnel to fight and to take over jobs left vacant by Russian draftees

There are differences, too, in that NATO countries did step up to defend Ukraine materially, even if it was a delayed response (Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, and Ukraine has been fighting Russia-supplied insurgents in Ukraine since). And NATO is a stronger alliance than the mutual defence pacts pre-WWII, especially if the US stays on board. And that's the biggest issue: whether the US will support Europe in full-scale action. Putin may take advantage of the apparent weakness of the relationship between the US and the rest of NATO.

In conclusion, I don't think a world war is a foregone conclusion or highly likely, but I don't think it's unlikely, either. If Putin feels he's pressed into a corner, he may feel a war is the best way to arouse the Russian people.

What do you guys think? Do you think there are similarities, or do you think I'm nuts?

[buster]

1. I'm surprised you've shed your optimistic persona.

2. There are so many lunkhead bullies leading countries now that war is totally possible.

3. You didn't suggest the USA would start a war. Oh, I'm sorry, they already did. I forgot.

4. I doubt China will risk one. They are the world's second largest economy, and seem more clever than some as they continue prospering.

5. Russia-Ukraine is the most touchy in my opinion, as I'd guess your opinion too.

6. War seems so silly considering problems with water, heat, fires, fuel and debt in the world. As a group though, I'm not sure if humans are very smart. Almost anyone reading this can note mind-boggling examples of group stupidity taking place every day.

 

[Jason]

1. I'm surprised you've shed your optimistic persona.

Nah, as I said, I think it's very unlikely, just not impossible.

3. You didn't suggest the USA would start a war. Oh, I'm sorry, they already did. I forgot.

Yeah, me too. Venezuela could have ended up in conflict, too, but I think their VP (now President) probably helped have her former president kidnapped, or she was just happy to be rid of him.

4. I doubt China will risk one. They are the world's second largest economy, and seem more clever than some as they continue prospering.

China is an odd duck. I agree that they probably aren't interested in war because it's bad for business. But China has threatened forces that protect Taiwan (and Japan), even having their fighter jets practically buzz allied fighter jets and bringing military ships in threatening, close quarters. If they attempt to capture Taiwan, it would cause a conflict with the US, except...

... the US has cancelled further military exercises in the Taiwan and Japan seas, basically suggesting they might not honour their commitment to defend South Korea. There are still US troops there, so it doesn't mean they've given up on defending South Korea, but it's a dangerous signal. If they do leave, North Korea, backed silently by China, could try to take all of Korea, or China could just sit back while they do.

5. Russia-Ukraine is the most touchy in my opinion, as I'd guess your opinion too.

Agreed. And the Russian economy is poised to face serious hardship. Russian banks are increasingly tired of providing financial backing to the government to continue the war. And since Russia can't get anyone to buy government bonds anymore (they've cancelled sales due to a lack of interest), they will have to drastically cut social spending. Russians are beginning to show opposition online in ways that were unthinkable a few years ago. They're sick of the war, the rampant inflation, and now the drone attacks from Ukraine. What happens when Putin is cornered, will he step down, flee, or fight? It's anyone's guess.

I occasionally watch war videos from analysts watching the war in Ukraine, and I was surprised to find out that Ukraine had sunk a cargo freighter from Iran bound for a Russian port in the Black Sea. Evidently, Ukraine has been using open-source intelligence and their own surveillance satellite to "tag" ships carrying supplies bound for Russia. Iran isn't going to do anything now, but it makes an already complicated situation more complicated.