Outcome of US Election 2024

[Jason]

Well, that was a disaster. Colbert started his monologue with, "Well, F**K", pretty much how I feel. As I write this, Trump's minions are 3 seats away from control of Congress. With the Supreme Court giving presidents a free pass for crimes as long as they're "official presidential duties", whatever that means, there are no checks on his power.

And it's a guy who has mused about being "a dictator on day one", ditching parts of the constitution, going after not just undocumented immigrants but children of them (many who are adults) and certain groups like legal Haitians. He vaguely said he was against a nationwide abortion ban but we'll see. You've probably heard the rest.

Beaverton, a Canadian satire website, sums it up with the headline, "American Experiment ends in catastrophic laboratory explosion"

"I've looked at all the theories, and honestly only one makes sense to me," said one firefighter on scene. "This laboratory wanted to explode. It dreamed about exploding. It listened to hours of podcasts about exploding. In some rooms, the facility waited 6+ hours just to ensure that it would explode."

What do you guys think? Is this the beginning of Fascism in the US, even if it's not Hitler-style fascism? Or is Trump all bark and no bite?

[ssfc72]

I was shocked when I turned on my computer that morning and saw that Trump had won the election.
I thought Harris would have had a decisive victory.

[tommolica]

Surprised the heck out of me also, because a leading predictor with a great track record had explained why his numbers showed the Dems winning.
So this means the deplorables want to be heard and will risk a possible mess because the last party did not treat them well enough.
I bet the same 'stuff' will hit the fan here in Canada - real soon.
Unfortunately, my sister in law was upset at me for saying people in Canada are upset Biggly. she could not understand that the most politicians have no idea what a real days work is, and have never done it. That is why the Canadian working class will take any change rather than be ignore. Seat belts on comrades, our singular vote will be overcome by the collective masses.

[Jason]

It surprised the heck out of me, too. I know the polls said it was close, but I thought they had to be wrong. How could people even consider voting for that guy? I think you hit it on the nose, Tom. People blamed Biden for the economic changes since 2020, even though it was because of the pandemic. The economy was improving, but that never got through the noise.

I'm starting to think this was their plan all along. We thought nobody would vote for that hateful and stupid crap but it's the same techniques, same speeches (minus the charisma) that have gotten autocrats into power and consolidate it once they're there. I hope in 4 years, assuming there is a fair election, that the Democrats can undo all the damage the GOP causes.

[Jason]

I do suspect that the Conservatives will be in next year. Even though the Liberals haven't done anything wrong. But in Canada, it looks like a government can only go 10 years before getting the boot. People are sick of them. If the Libs could find a new leader, maybe they'd stand a chance but I don't think it matters. However, I don't think the Conservatives will be anywhere near as bad as the Trump party. He should rename the party to include his name. It barely even looks like the Republicans. Reagan must be rolling in his grave with Trump cozying up to Putin.

[buster]

"People blamed Biden for the economic changes since 2020, even though it was because of the pandemic."

I think you give people too must credit for attempting to be reasonable. I doubt humans are reasoning creatures. Trump can win because he knows his audience does not use reason to decide.

[Jason]

"People blamed Biden for the economic changes since 2020, even though it was because of the pandemic."

I think you give people too must credit for attempting to be reasonable. I doubt humans are reasoning creatures. Trump can win because he knows his audience does not use reason to decide.

I don't think it's fair to say that humans aren't reasonable creatures. We're the dominant animal on this planet. We got there because evolution evolved brains that could reason. We then used that reason to make discoveries and used those discoveries to build things. We have the capacity for reason. Trump voters have that same ability to reason but they're using it simplistically.

"Are you better than you were four years ago?" Opposition politicians like to ask that question in tough times. Because they know most people are going to take the shortcut of attributing how their lives are now to whoever was in power. It's a reason. And sometimes it might be mostly the government's fault (e.g. price controls, invading countries) so it could be a good reason. Usually, a bad economy or a company going under isn't caused by one factor.

But if you're doing badly, you're likely to be angry. And we all know how unreasonable people can get when they're angry including ourselves. When you're angry, you're more likely to want a single villain to blame. Trump is the master of rage. He was a master both of getting people angry and then channeling that anger into simplistic solutions that seemed reasonable to somebody that didn't think too deeply. All fascists do the same thing.

If humans didn't have a capacity for reasoning and be able to use it, everything would be chaos if we even had a civilization to begin with.

[buster]

"I don't think it's fair to say that humans aren't reasonable creatures. We're the dominant animal on this planet. We got there because evolution evolved brains that could reason. We then used that reason to make discoveries and used those discoveries to build things. We have the capacity for reason."

This statement is 100% correct. We have this capacity. However, some people gamble away the family house, keep smoking when it may kill them, eat and sit until they are 400 pounds, take drugs that will addict them for life, buy a gun and shoot innocent bystanders, spend Sundays watching 12 hours mostly of advertising and commentary while for a total of just over 35 minutes the football players on the screen are actually doing something, choose sexual partners who are violent, buy cars and houses they can't afford, send money to a prince in Nigeria, watch films with buckets of gore and blood, torture pets, believe advertising.

I think we have reason, but we often decide using irrational impulses. I would suggest we often decide first, and then think up reasons to justify our choices.

Under The Influence is a CBC radio show that doesn't emphasize advertising seeking out hooks into our irrationality, but does give a glimpse into what works and what doesn't.

Better still, listen to people as they justify their behaviour.

[fox]

I was surprised about the election outcome, too, but not that surprised. The polls have been getting it wrong since the 2016 election. Every poll keeps underestimating Trump's support, even when Biden won. This is not just U.S.-wide; it's every (or almost every) state. However, what surprised me was watching the returns come in. In 2020, Biden was behind in almost every swing state by the end of election day, but later counts put him in. In this case, Harris was ahead in all three blue wall states until about 10 pm, and then suddenly Trump surged. Why was the situation reversed between 2020 and 2024?

I was certainly disappointed. I think this could be bad for the U.S., but worse for every country they deal with, including Canada. Let's hope Americans come to their senses two years from now. (Senate and House elections.)

[Jason]

I think we have reason, but we often decide using irrational impulses. I would suggest we often decide first, and then think up reasons to justify our choices.

Irrational impulses certainly play into many decisions. But there is still some rational thought leading to them. Even if that thought is just, "I might like this." The justification comes when someone shows them that the decision doesn't make sense based on that choice, so they come up with others to get that person to leave them alone and probably convince themselves that they had other good reasons. People hate being in that spot between believing one thing or another. It's mentally exhausting. So they resist having anyone push them into that area. It's easier to continue to think the same thing. It's why we suck at having our minds changed.

[Jason]

I was surprised about the election outcome, too, but not that surprised. The polls have been getting it wrong since the 2016 election. Every poll keeps underestimating Trump's support, even when Biden won. This is not just U.S.-wide; it's every (or almost every) state. However, what surprised me was watching the returns come in. In 2020, Biden was behind in almost every swing state by the end of election day, but later counts put him in. In this case, Harris was ahead in all three blue wall states until about 10 pm, and then suddenly Trump surged. Why was the situation reversed between 2020 and 2024?

From some of what I read, many states conducted the elections differently in 2020 and preferred voter options changed. The pandemic lead to a lot of main-in votes which were mostly Democrat because the GOP tried to pretend the pandemic didn't exist. And the mail-in votes couldn't be counted until all the other votes were counted, some not until the next day. This time around, the states either banned mail-in votes, put special conditions on their use, or counted the mail-in votes at the same time. I can only assume the election was so close in those Blue Wall states that a small amount of Trump votes were counted later tipping the scale.

I was certainly disappointed. I think this could be bad for the U.S., but worse for every country they deal with, including Canada. Let's hope Americans come to their senses two years from now. (Senate and House elections.)

I don't think it'll be worse for us than America but that remains to be seen. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition! To fascist or not to fascist.... that is the question.

[William]

What surprised me was, Harris won in states that didn't require voter ID, and Trump won in states that did.  Once again, the old adage rang true: "It's the economy, stupid."

[Jason]

What surprised me was, Harris won in states that didn't require voter ID, and Trump won in states that did.  Once again, the old adage rang true: "It's the economy, stupid."

Interesting. I didn't notice that. It is something that right-wing parties try to do, especially in the US. Poorer voters (often Black there), who frequently don't have ID, tend to vote Democrat.

I agree that the economy, particularly prices (i.e. inflation), had much to do with it. The perception of unemployment being higher, even if it wasn't true is likely part of it.