Election prediction for 2019

Jason · October 21, 2019, 09:33:00 AM

Liberal/Conservative minority (honestly, either could still happen, but it *will* be a minority)
In the case of a Conservative minority, the Liberals *may* negotiate with the NDP (and maybe Greens if they need them) to cobble together and agreement or a coalition. I don't count on it because the main thing that Liberals care about is power, even over the needs of Canadians. I would *not* be surprised if JT resigns, and the Liberals let the Conservatives govern with a minority and force an election in 2 years.
The NDP will be willing to support the Liberals but it will be a tough negotiate. The NDP will want a coalition and cabinet seats, faster action on climate change, Pharmacare, Housing, and maybe electoral reform. But they will settle for an agreement to support the Liberals for a time if they get action on those issues.
The Greens won't matter much, Elizabeth May will likely win only her seat, losing the other seat.
Maxime Bernier won't win.
The Bloc may be the third party but it's going to be close in the total seat count between them and the NDP so hard to tell.
Of the two new independents that JT kicked out of cabinet, one of them will win, but barely. They won't next time around unless they run under another party banner.

Seat prediction:

Liberal 136
Cons 126
Bloc 39
NDP 36
Greens 1
PPC 0
Independents 1
PPC 1

ssfc72 · October 21, 2019, 04:17:04 PM

I would guess, a Conservative minority.
Lindsay area will be Conservative.
Peterborough area will be conservative.

buster · October 21, 2019, 11:55:21 PM

I'll guess Liberals just short of 160, Conservatives around 120, NDP about 25, Block Quebec about 30, maybe a bit more, Greens 2 or 3.

Jason · October 22, 2019, 04:09:19 AM

We can all see the time stamp. That's cheating!

Jason · October 22, 2019, 04:11:31 AM

Quote from: ssfc72 on October 21, 2019, 04:17:04 PM
I would guess, a Conservative minority.
Lindsay area will be Conservative.
Peterborough area will be conservative.

Well, you were right about Lindsay and it was close in Peterborough-Kawartha.

buster · October 22, 2019, 10:12:32 AM

"We can all see the time stamp. That's cheating!"

Cheating??? I didn't see anything in the rules for this competition that stated WHEN we had to have our guesses in.

And also, the Liberals should send a big box of chocolates to Doug Ford as a thank you for helping them keep most of their seats in Ontario.

Jason · October 22, 2019, 01:34:22 PM

Quote from: buster on October 22, 2019, 10:12:32 AM
Cheating??? I didn't see anything in the rules for this competition that stated WHEN we had to have our guesses in.

It's technically not a guess when you read the results off of the results page. Just stop, buster, the joke doesn't get any funnier, the more you tell it

Quote
And also, the Liberals should send a big box of chocolates to Doug Ford as a thank you for helping them keep most of their seats in Ontario.

Good point. And I wouldn't be surprised if there are some organizers which are actually doing that. The sad part is we will never heard about it as I can't imagine Ford's staff would tell us about it.

buster · October 22, 2019, 05:31:13 PM

Do I get prize? And why would anyone think I'm joking?

Jason · October 22, 2019, 06:58:57 PM

Quote from: buster on October 22, 2019, 05:31:13 PM
Do I get prize? And why would anyone think I'm joking?

Just a pat on the back and a roll of the eyes.

Jason · October 22, 2019, 07:03:56 PM

What's interesting about this election and it hasn't happened since 1979, is that a party had a higher popular vote but yet failed to win in seat total, the Conservatives in this case. In 1979 it was the opposite with the Liberals getting the short end of the stick and Joe Clark being elected for a short little reign.

Liberals will think the result this time is fine but will they think so if the reverse happens in the next election? I said this on Twitter last night:

QuoteIf we had a proportional system of representation, the number of votes would reflect the proportion of seats won. So instead of this: Con 115, Lib 156, BQ 32, NDP 25, Grn 3, we'd have this: Con 122, Lib 112, BQ 27, NDP 53, Grn 21. We went from false majority to false minority.

It also means that Peterborough-Kawartha, the majority of voters, 60% did not get an MP they wanted. Across the country that amounts to about 65% of voters.

According to the popular votes by region, there should have been Liberals elected in Alberta (none were), more in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (same with NDP here), more Conservatives and NDP in Ontario, more Conservatives and NDP in the Maritimes and more of all federal parties represented in Quebec. Instead, we will have regions against one another even though it's not the fault of clashing ideas but of the voting system. My frustration is less with the voting system and more with the people who think this is okay and democratic. If the government doesn't represent the plurality of voters it's not democratic - it doesn't matter how it was arrived at (i.e. FPTP). No wonder so many people don't bother to vote.

The only saving grace here is that the Liberals, representing about 33% of the vote, will have to work with the NDP, representing 16% of the vote, an actual plurality of voters (or at least close to it) to get anything done. I hope the Greens, representing 6% of the votes will also be invited in. Then 55% of Canadians' votes will have actually counted for something. That's way better than the 40% we usually get.

I also hope that the NDP, Greens and Bloc will push the NDP on proportional representation, a system that would get rid of false majorities (and false minorities).