Technology shortages to continue, long term

[gmiller1977]

Our company received the following correspondance from a top (3) tier system manufacturer a few days ago.  Our group has faced serious shortages on many components.  This group is the first to send such notification to our channel.  I thought it might be of interesting discussion material.

With the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions continuing across the globe, work from home and distance education are likely to continue and create ongoing demand for IT equipment for 2021. IDCââ,¬â,,¢s preliminary results1 for calendar Q1 2021, show that global PC shipments grew by a massive 55.2% with strong growth expected for calendar Q2 2021.

In parallel the market continues to struggle with setbacks including component shortages and global logistic challenges which unfortunately is leading to incremental cost increases from our suppliers on top of what has previously been announced, especially across DRAM, SSD, LCD panels, integrated circuits and graphic cards. If we look at memory only, PC DRAM prices are forecasted to increase by 23-28% QoQ in Calendar Q2 alone due to the increased production of notebook computers (source: Trendforce)2.

The PC industry is still expected to continue to struggle with severe shortages across multiple component categories3 for at least 2021 before we hope to see the situation ease.

[fox]

Then I guess I've been lucky so far. I don't need to replace any computers in the short or medium term. I have sufficient RAM in my computers, and the only component I have bought in the last few months is a Samsung T7 500 gb external SSD. (And I got that on sale.) Even that wasn't a must-have; I wanted one to store external distros, as on my thunderbolt 3 port, they boot as fast as a distro on my internal SSD. But it's good to know what to expect; if you anticipate needing something soon, buy now or as soon as the item goes on sale.

[Jason]

An increase in sales is expected and I can understand the numbers but still, 55%! I imagine the manufacturing plants have to add extra shifts if they even can. And the virus has probably caused sick days to shoot up. China has it pretty bad last that I heard.

[William]

I could understand shortage in printers.  You normally share printers at office, but you can't at home.  But, computers?  It's scam by manufacturers to jack up the price.  We're working from home, and we all took company computers with us.

[Jason]

I could understand shortage in printers.  You normally share printers at office, but you can't at home.  But, computers?  It's scam by manufacturers to jack up the price.  We're working from home, and we all took company computers with us.

Your work environment isn't everyone's work environment, William. You work for a technology company, I believe? So, of course, you have computers that employees can take home, they're likely laptops. You can't extend your work situation to how every company works but it might be very well applicable to how technology companies work.

Demand increases prices when there isn't enough supply to meet it. It's basic economics. They're not trying to scam you although they will certainly try to get the best price they can. But consumers will also expect the best price they can get, too. There is a lot of competition in technology sales. The margins are pretty thin for wholesalers AFAIK.

[gmiller1977]

I could understand shortage in printers.  You normally share printers at office, but you can't at home.  But, computers?  It's scam by manufacturers to jack up the price.  We're working from home, and we all took company computers with us.

I've sold a LOT of laptops and PCs over the last year.

I can still get workstations, and laptops (but interestingly enough, nothing with SSDs).... but monitors are becoming hard to source in the channel and *forget* about printers, let along OEM supplies for them.

I just bought a Brother MFC from STAPLES of all places (I never pay retail lol), but I haven't seen anything in stock at my suppliers in the last 3 months.

Take care of the toys you have, they might be hard to replace/repair.

[Jason]

I guess I'll have to wait a while for that power supply I need! My printer is on the monthly cartridge replacement program but I print so little I haven't had to get any new ones since I signed up almost 2 years ago. This might explain why I can't find any cheap used computers at Reboot. Nobody can find the new stuff and they're buying most of them up.

[gmiller1977]

I guess I'll have to wait a while for that power supply I need! My printer is on the monthly cartridge replacement program but I print so little I haven't had to get any new ones since I signed up almost 2 years ago. This might explain why I can't find any cheap used computers at Reboot. Nobody can find the new stuff and they're buying most of them up.

Perhaps!  I have no idea how quickly new to used happens!  Maybe Reboot is experiencining the same tech "crunch" we are.  They probably are.

[Jason]

For Reboot, they usually get off-lease donations from businesses and likely government offices. They're usually the more expensive brands from Dell or HP. I think the standard used to be 3-year leases but it's 2 years now, isn't it? You'd know better than I would, gmiller. The local place used to put out a flyer with the ones they had in stock but now their website isn't even there, it just redirects to Reboot Canada.

[ssfc72]

The businesses/factories that used to probably supply Reboot with used computers have disappeared from the Peterborough area , over the years.
The latest is General Electric.  They probably were a huge supplier of used computers to Reboot Peterborough.

[Jason]

The businesses/factories that used to probably supply Reboot with used computers have disappeared from the Peterborough area , over the years.
The latest is General Electric.  They probably were a huge supplier of used computers to Reboot Peterborough.

It's possible but I think they received most of their computers from Reboot Canada which is in Toronto. But I'm not sure of that, it may be that they got a surge of them locally when GE and a few other businesses shut down. I did some contract work at the various government Ministries located download and when their computers were swapped out for new ones there was a place they took them out of town where they were recycled as computers for charities, etc.

[gmiller1977]

For Reboot, they usually get off-lease donations from businesses and likely government offices. They're usually the more expensive brands from Dell or HP. I think the standard used to be 3-year leases but it's 2 years now, isn't it? You'd know better than I would, gmiller. The local place used to put out a flyer with the ones they had in stock but now their website isn't even there, it just redirects to Reboot Canada.

I'll be honest and say I don't know.  None of my clients lease hardware.