US Election Predictions - President, House of Representatives and the Senate

[Jason]

Here's some 22 minutes humour that shows their voting system is even weirder than we thought. Every state has its own way of counting ballots, collecting ballots and even how the actual vote is made. They interview Americans on their system, explain ours and show snippets of their reactions. "The greatest democracy in the world", indeed.

[buster]

"Honestly, I expect it to be a bloodbath for the Republicans "

I love election night TV and I must say you're taking all the drama out of it Jason. Let's pretend it's going to be tense and uncertain so we can watch with trepidation and hope.

(For me it may be like the Maple Leafs playing the Leaside Weasels on the Wayne and Schuster radio show long before TV. Every year we knew who was going to win, but it was still fun to listen and hope too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wayne_and_Shuster#Radio )

[Jason]

Oh, I don't know. In "Saving Private Ryan", you always knew the eventual outcome in that they'd "save" him but watching what it took to get there was still enjoyable. Although, if Biden wins all his expected states and then Pennsylvania or any of the other states you mentioned comes in right away, it might be all over. After that, it's like having a lottery ticket when you know you've won but don't know how much. It's still fun to find out. Keep the popcorn out.

Btw, I used to watch Wayne in Schuster on tv, you know, those new fangled boxes that show moving pictures? It was in colour, too! But we still had a wired box to change the channel, click, click, click, push a dial-up and down to change from lower-numbered channels to upper numbered channels. I made sure to get the button box from dad so I could watch what I wanted. Once I got older, he wasn't there enough to know what was going on, anyway.

[buster]

"In "Saving Private Ryan", you always knew the eventual outcome"

I think these are different categories. I've seen different productions of Hamlet a few times. It's more how he gets to his death rather than the 'surprise' ending. (He always dies by the way  )Princess Bride always ends the same way. Movies and sports are different categories. I watch the election as a sporting event. The fact the ending is unknown makes it simpler and more brutal - winner take all.

Just a personal note - if I like a book I often reread it. It's always different the second time because you see more completely knowing where it's going. "You cannot step into the same book twice."

[buster]

I've refined my view of the election night senario, but not by much.

So give Trump Texas, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and he is still short. Biden will take Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota and be one vote short.

Trump has to take BOTH Florida AND Pennsylvania.

If Joe wins either Florida or Pennsylvania he's in.

Jason has noted that Pennsylvania is the key. True, but we can now add Florida to that as well. Trump has to win both. Still looking forward to a long and interesting night.

[fox]

I wouldn't necessarily give Trump any of those except Texas, and even there he isn't guaranteed. Biden is ahead by a few points in North Carolina, and Iowa, Georgia and Ohio are razor-tight. So by your count, if Biden wins North Carolina but losses both Florida and Pennsylvania, Biden would still win.

[buster]

I agree Mike. I'm looking at a worst case scenario. Trump could manage to get the close ones. But he still faces the challenge of getting Florida AND Pennsylvania, and these would be his most difficult.

Call up the CBC prediction game and click the ones Biden should win fairly easily and you get to 269 votes. Trump has to get every remaining state. And the toughest would be Florida and Pennsylvania.

But I agree. A loss in any of those states remaining would give Biden over 270.

Still, sports and politics have had many last minute unlikely reversals.

[Jason]

I wouldn't necessarily give Trump any of those except Texas, and even there he isn't guaranteed. Biden is ahead by a few points in North Carolina, and Iowa, Georgia and Ohio are razor-tight. So by your count, if Biden wins North Carolina but losses both Florida and Pennsylvania, Biden would still win.

I think that the point that Buster is making is that Trump has almost no path to victory. He'd have to win all those plus Florida and Pennsylvania. In other words, all the stars would have to be aligned for him to win. There is the one scary possibility - that those polled are lying about how they're going to vote. Ugh. Let's not think about that.

To me, the most interesting part of election night will be if Democrats take back the Senate. They only have to tie in seats assuming they win the presidency since the VP chairs the Senate and can cast the deciding vote. If they don't, passing legislation will be difficult since the Republicans will be able to filibuster everything.

I'm already worried about SCOTUS as the ACA is coming before them soon and could be nullified as a result undoing Obama's greatest achievement and millions, maybe tens of millions will lose health coverage during a pandemic no less. But the Republicans will likely push through the nomination even if it's after the election but before the new Congress is sworn in.