Author Topic: US Election Predictions - President, House of Representatives and the Senate  (Read 325 times)

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Offline Jason Wallwork

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Here we can post predictions based on polls, news articles, interactive predictors or games and even our predictions. I'm thinking of who gets control of the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Presidency. All Congressmen (I believe that's what they call House Reps.) are up for re-election, and 1/3 of the Senators.

I thought this article took an unusual approach to predict the outcome. It looks at the first Presidential debate and betting share values and how they went up and down during and since the debate. These numbers are often considered better than surveys as the participants are "putting their money where their mouth is".

On another issue, do you think Trump will succeed in getting his nominee appointed to the Supreme Court before the election or after? I have a suspicion that even if the Republicans lose control of the Senate, they will push through the confirmation before the new Senate is sworn in (January 2021). I don't know if Biden wins if the nomination can proceed but if so, I wouldn't put it past the Republicans to still do it. At that point, win or lose, there would be no consequences.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2020, 06:41:31 am by Jason Wallwork »
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline Jason Wallwork

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Re: Watching the US Election polls - President, House and Senate
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2020, 06:36:54 am »
My prediction is that the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and likely gain quite a few more representatives.

There's now a reasonable chance that the Democrats may take control of the Senate with 2-3 of the Repulican Senators facing tough re-election campaigns.

It's still unlikely to happen but it could. For the Presidency, I think that Biden will get it but we've been surprised before with polls as predictors especially in 2016. The difference between this campaign and 2016 is that the Democratic candidate is further ahead now compared to then and not just in the popular vote but in almost all the battleground states. If Biden wins, I have a strong feeling it will be a landslide.

If the Democrats win at all three levels, it will be the first time since 2008 when Obama won his first term. After 2010, Obama faced a hostile House of Representatives and Senate for the rest of his term and the next. If the Democrats win the House by a few dozen more Democrats, they could have the votes to move toward universal healthcare even with the usual Democrat hold-outs. It's not likely in the two years they'd control the Senate but it's possible. I don't think Biden is much interested, though, and it would take a strong President to push it.
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline Jason Wallwork

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Not as much fun as Buster's predictor, but the charts in this Economist prediction is insightful.

The article convincingly shows that Trump has a real uphill climb to win even right now even if Republican turnout is higher than the Democrats. Polls are taking into account this factor which affected the switch in support in several swing states that decided the winner in 2016.

One horizontal chart puts the state sizes with the proportion of their electoral votes and whether they're solid, leaning or a toss-up (by the percentage chance to win). It shows that for Trump to win, he'd have to win the solid Republican states, the leaning Republican states, a large leaning Democrat state and all of the toss-ups. It also uses as a basis that states that are like each other will vote similarly. So if Trump wins Minnesota, he'll likely take Wisconsin, too. All in all, it gives Biden a 90% chance of winning.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 04:44:52 pm by Jason Wallwork »
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline Jason Wallwork

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It looks like I'm just talking to myself here. But that's okay. After all, I'm fairly interesting. ;)

Here's a popular website with predictions for the presidential election, the House of Representatives and the Senate. It has some good information about how they came up with their numbers, the simulations they ran and links to more specific information.
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline Jason Wallwork

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This website aggregates the results from nine different organizations instead of using polls directly. It predicts, as I've seen some others predict, that Biden's combined Safe, Likely and Leaning Democratic states mean he can without winning any toss-up states or lose some leaning and gets some toss-ups.

Essentially, there is little to no path for Trump to win at this point. Of course, they don't call this month the "October Surprise" for nothing. A surprising development could change the direction of the electorate, although I think (and hope) that Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis was the surprise and it hasn't helped him. It's probably made things worse for him bringing back to the forefront the issue that he has the least amount of approval in.

The site is interactive, too. You can click on states to come up with your own prediction.

I'm hoping that somebody else will post in this topic. The cacophony of the crickets is getting to me.
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline buster

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Have used 538 site for years and find it one of the best.

However, there is one flaw in voter predictions polls that can't be avoided very easily. I would guess the voter intentions are very accurate, but as history has shown, the intentions don't always convert to reality. So the disapproval numbers for Trump are probably correct but...

The Democrats have changed some of their pitch this year away from young voters and moved to older  voters. They may win the hearts of the young, but if it looks as if Dems will win anyway, some don't bother or forget. The older ones march out and vote. More mail in voting may help that.

And historically we note that though there are fewer Republicans, their vote % is always good.

So while it looks good, from my liberal point of view, I still think it isn't over til it's over.
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Offline Jason Wallwork

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Although I haven't followed the issues that closely, I don't think that Democrats have changed their pitch this election. They've always been concerned with older voters, every party has to since they are more likely to vote as you say. I think older voters have moved away from Trump because of his arrogance and lies about COVID-19 and the predictable fallout. Even veteran groups are running commercials against Trump.

It's not just polling though, if you look at how the data is derived in many cases, it takes into account incumbency, historical trends, how states with similar industries and demographics vote, etc. But even with polls alone, Biden is leading Trump by double digits in most cases and in, what's really important, the electoral college.

Trump could still win, he'd just have to win all of the toss-up states, every one of them and a couple of states that are leading Democratic. That's a tall order. To put it another way, Trump could win in flip states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan, etc., and still not have enough electoral college votes to take him over. On top of that, states that Democrats aren't usually competitive in like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia are in play. Trump would need something like a major scandal to crater Biden's momentum at this juncture.

I think the real question is, "How much more will Biden win by?" I'm hoping for Trump to get taken to the wood shed, a royal spanking. That criminal masogynistic sociopath pig deserves it.

I admit that I feel like I'm tempting fate by even saying it but I think even Republicans are going to be shocked at just how badly they lose although it won't really matter by how much they do, except in the Senate. It still gets my goat that RBG couldn't hang on for a few months so the Republicans wouldn't be able to appoint yet another right-wing supreme court justice. Sigh.

Oh, and if Trump does get re-elected, America is doomed. And that'll hurt us, too.
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline buster

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I take it you disapprove of Trump.
"With all due respect John I am head of IT and I have it on good authority if you type 'Google' into Google you can break the internet, so please no one try it, even for a joke." ( Jen on 'The IT Crowd' )

Offline Jason Wallwork

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I take it you disapprove of Trump.

Nah, he's not all that bad once you get to know him.  ;) ;D ;D
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline fox

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I agree that it isn't over until it's over. One big issue has to do with who will ultimately vote, given possible intimidation in some places, and long lines combined with fear of Covid. Biden should win, but I'm not calling it until it's in the bag.
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Offline Jason Wallwork

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It might be a little late for intimidation and for Trump convincing voters when so many have already voted. But I do worry about voter suppression. I believe I hard the news say that 22 million Americans had already voted either by mail-in ballot or in person in advance voting. Some guy in Georgia (I think) said he waited 11 hours to vote. It was also mentioned that the majority of this early voting is by Democrats and that many are voting who didn't vote in 2016. No doubt because they've seen what a disaster resulted because they sat home - not just Trump's inability to put the job before himself but because so many died in the pandemic and more will. And he'll take away their healthcare when they need it most. The biggest flip in voters is those older than 55, the ones that you can be sure will vote because they've seen that their demographic take the brunt of the casualities. All of this bodes ill for Trump.

But I'm calling it. Biden will definitely win and most likely win a landslide. Democrats will take more seats in the House, 12-20 more and have a good chance of taking back the Senate. But the races are close enough in the Senate that I predict they won't, sadly. It would have to be the perfect storm for the Democrats to take the White House and Congress.

If the presidential results are close, I expect Trump to try and fight the result in court over his alleged election fraud. He knows very well that it's not happening and that he will lose the court battle. But since he will never admit to a mistake or losing at anything, he has to convince his fans that the Democrats stole the election. He might say the same thing if he loses big but not take it to court. Remember that even after he won over Hillary Clinton in 2016, he claimed there was massive fraud because he lost the popular vote. Talk about a sore winner.

The funny thing is that I previously predicted that Trump would get a second term. And if it hadn't been for the pandemic, I still would be saying that. But COVID-19 changed everything. It showed that where it really matters, Trump is a buffoon, at least to everyone but the people that would vote for a dead horse as long as it was a Republican. Good riddance to the bad cheeto-in-chief.
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline Jason Wallwork

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Here's what I was talking about regarding mail-in ballots except that it also includes early voting. Two to one for Democratic votes vs. Republican. And that's not just Democratic states, that's across 42 states. And, despite Trump's insane railing against mail-in ballots, Republicans understand the advantage and have been using campaign teams to get their supporters to do just that.

It's not just dyed-in-the-wool Democrats voting early, either. This next factoid is probably terrifying the Republicans:

"Republicans argue that these signs of enthusiasm are meaningless — Democratic early voters are people who would have voted anyway, they say. But an AP analysis of the early vote shows eight per cent of early voters had never cast a ballot before, and 13.8 per cent had voted in half or fewer of previous elections for which they were eligible."

I'm guessing that Trump's manchild style of governing has angered many into voting who wouldn't normally give a damn. Trump's abrasive simple-minded attack-style didn't drain the swamp but it looks like it will remove the stink.
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline buster

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I've put in again the link to the game that lets you play the battleground states any which way you want. You get a bit of history, the polls, and your own common sense. I've played it 20 or 30 times.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/us/2020/battlegrounds/

As far as this astute political pundit can reckon, there are only a few ways Mr Trump can win. Here's how I see it. He has Texas, Ohio and Iowa. He also has to get all the closest ones - Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. But this leaves him two electoral votes short.

Now here's his problem. He has to steal at least one of Biden's favoured states - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota or New Hampshire.

I am so looking forward to this election on television as the results come in. I was in our camper in Alabama when Trump was elected in the early a.m. Tense to the last minute.

I'm much more versed now in their odd system. And I'll watch to see what happens in

FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA.

Those should tell the tale if it's going to be over early.



"With all due respect John I am head of IT and I have it on good authority if you type 'Google' into Google you can break the internet, so please no one try it, even for a joke." ( Jen on 'The IT Crowd' )

Offline Jason Wallwork

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As far as this astute political pundit can reckon, there are only a few ways Mr Trump can win. Here's how I see it. He has Texas, Ohio and Iowa. He also has to get all the closest ones - Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. But this leaves him two electoral votes short.

Now here's his problem. He has to steal at least one of Biden's favoured states - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota or New Hampshire.

I pretty much said that already early in the thread. But I'm glad you agree. After that, I'm afraid we have to politely disagree.

Assuming that Biden wins the solid and softer Democratic states, Pennsylvania is all he needs to take him over the top. And the "soft" states aren't even that soft. We're talking about between six and 10 points. And he's ahead there by six points, so it's the one he's most likely to win.

North Carolina and Georgia are too close to expect either to carry him over first (the latter is <1% difference) and even Florida is only three points. He might take Florida and that would put him over but he doesn't need it if he gets Pennsylvania. So that's the one to watch. The others you mention I'll be watching so his win is solid and Trump can't bitch about the mail-in ballots. I'd pick Arizona over Georgia though.
Georgia is just too close to count on.

Now you see why the path for Trump to victory is going to be tough. But two weeks so something could happen. Trump and Republicans keep trying to make hay with the Hunter Biden story now with a mysterious laptop with a "damning email" which really isn't. Guliana is at best being used by the Russians as they feed him false information and at worse an agent. Not a secret agent, just a man that is working for the Russians, not Trump. The Russians don't care about Trump; they just want the US to descend into chaos and Trump is the best way to do that in 2016 and now. Either way, switch voters or moderates aren't going to be swayed by this scandal which isn't a scandal to anyone but hardcore Republicans.
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata

Offline Jason Wallwork

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At 538's prediction page, scroll down the graphical "snake" titled "The winding path to victory". Hover over any state to see the aggregate polling numbers and electoral votes. That's why I'll be watching Pennsylvania closely. Honestly, I expect it to be a bloodbath for the Republicans and a good lesson for them about what happens when you back a sociopath ignoramus.
"With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world." - Max Ehrmann, Desiderata