The Fallout from Covid 19

[BusterE]

Because of my great age, I have seen a number of shocks in the markets and society in general. However, and this includes Sars, I cannot recall one shock that involved the need not to gather. This makes it unique.

I think it would be interesting to discuss personal experiences and predictions for the next six months.

Here are some experiences: our friends aren't gathering for socials, we don't enter neighbour's houses but talk outside, we probably wont have family gatherings, we're not going to the cinema, our final concert of the season (mostly jazz) has been cancelled, we're not going to  restaurants, our grandchildren are trying to finish their university courses via the Internet.

Here are some predictions: Canada will go on lock-down as has Italy, Poland and Spain, which means almost everything will be shut down except pharmacies and grocery stores, and finacial markets will plummet.

I think this will be the most profound and interesting event of my life.

[Jason]

Personally, I'm mainly just washing my hands more. I'm trying not to go out more than I need to, but to be honest, that's not so different from normal.

As for predictions, I'm not sure about everything going into lockdown. If I'm not mistaken, they've taken those drastic steps because they didn't make enough effort to contain it in the first place resulting in many more cases.

Totally agree that the financial markets will plummet. They're plummeting now.

The long term effect will be that more people will do stuff from home resulting in more online ordering, deliveries, and remote working. Cinemas are pretty much just young people now, it's pretty uncommon to see anybody there over the age of 30. Cineplex is still open, they're just cutting capacity by half so the risk is lessened.

Even if the virus goes beyond a few months, most people will get sick of being at home and will go out again so I believe the financial shock will be short and will recover. You can look up the number of cases at Health Canada and it has fallen since the first time we kept count. It may have peaked an be on the decline but it may be premature to say that.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals.html#epi

[buster]

First confirmed case in Peterborough news released today, though it was pretty well known a few days ago.

[ssfc72]

I think they need to shut down the drive test centres in Lindsay and Peterborough, to help stop the spread of the virus.  Every weekday the Lindsay mall is full of young people that are obviously from the Toronto region, taking their driver test here, because the streets here are not crazy busy like they are in Toronto.

[fox]

The biggest effect on us so far is on hygiene (especially frequent and intensive hand washing) and not going out much. We go outside a lot, but don't go to stores or people's houses any more than we have to. I do expect ultimately that most Canadians will be exposed to the virus, but hopefully the rate of serious illness won't be as taxing on our health care facilities as it has in Italy and other European countries. We're trying to do our part in minimizing the rate of spread. We are fairly well prepared for a two week quarantine should one or both of us get the virus.

We had a trip to the U.S. Southwest planned for early April that we're going to cancel as soon as the panicked airline phone calls slow down. I'm hoping that we'll be able to take that trip in the fall.

I'm worried about the effect on Canadian businesses, but not the stock market. Markets go up and down and will ultimately recover. Related to the former, I'm concerned that unemployment rates are going to rise sharply, and people (especially young people) are going to be hurt by this.

[buster]

Well, if markets go down and stay down for 7 months, that increases Trump's chances of losing the election.

And the Canadian economy has taken a double whammy with the drop in oil prices. The tars sands 'oil' sells not at the prices you hear, but at the WCS Crude prices, which are at the moment under $20 a barrel. Alberta sells regular crude as well, but doesn't have unlimited supplies of that.

Alberta is really suffering, though over the prosperous years they never really prepared for this inevitable change. Diversification would have been a good idea.

[Jason]

I do expect ultimately that most Canadians will be exposed to the virus, but hopefully the rate of serious illness won't be as taxing on our health care facilities as it has in Italy and other European countries.

If most Canadians were to be exposed to the virus, that would be terrible. Unless the death rate turns out to be vastly inflated (2% now), that would mean extreme pressure on hospitals and clinics. Let's say by most, you mean 25 million. That'd be about 500,000 deaths which would be roughly tripling the current death rate. And I would assume that most people that are hospitalized won't die, so we're talking about admissions in the millions. So I hope it doesn't work out that way. Of course, maybe the higher level of exposure will lead to herd immunity thus protecting others from getting it.

[Jason]

Well, if markets go down and stay down for 7 months, that increases Trump's chances of losing the election.

Yep, having a good economy makes it easier for leaders and the governing party to maintain power. Hard to say at this point if it's going to stay down for that long.

[buster]

Our Albanian neighbour runs a high end hairdressing business in his house. Everyone has cancelled until the summer. That's his only source of income.

There is some speculation that schools will be closed until summer.

The ambulance arrived 20 minutes ago for a neighbour and friend who is coughing and having trouble breathing. He has been home from the States for about a week.

The Dow had its biggest point drop in history today. (Though probably not %)

In our area the grocery stores are having trouble keeping things on the shelf, like spaghetti sauce - a neighbour said not one can or bottle on the empty shelf.

Interesting tiimes.

[buster]

Update: The neighbour who was taken away in the ambulance was diagnosed with pneumonia and is on antibiotics. Odd to hear things like, 'Fortunately he has pneumonia.'

[ssfc72]

Thanks for the update, Buster.

[buster]

I wrote earlier "The tars sands 'oil' sells not at the prices you hear, but at the WCS Crude prices, which are at the moment under $20 a barrel."

At the moment, WCS is selling for $15.05 per barrel on futures markets. The wine I buy costs close to this, and I certainly don't get a barrel of it.

Buster @ Information Central

[Jason]

I hope your friend recovers, Buster. But it is odd that pneumonia would be considered better than COVID-19. From what I understand, and I may be wrong, COVID-19 can quickly lead to pneumonia and that's what kills people.

Anyway, as far as changing my daily life, I'm trying to cut back to going out only one day a week and then just to get groceries for ourselves and my brother, Rob, who can't get out because of a bad leg and broken ribs. I wasn't worried about transit until I saw the recommendation not to take it. The city added extra buses on the busiest routes to separate people as many of the busy routes fill up the buses. But still, I'm concerned so just avoiding taking it altogether. Luckily, I have a friend who insists that if I need to get groceries or run necessary errands that I contact her for a ride. I plan to do so next week for groceries. I'm lucky to have her.

I just remembered that I have two refills of meds to pick up. I guess I'll be out again tomorrow or the next day. Not sure my drugstore is delivering. I've heard of at least one that stopped.

Also, while we have toilet paper until the end of the month, people are definitely hoarding it and the two grocery stores I've been to the last few days have been sold out. I'm kind of worried about what to do at the end of the month if we can't find any. Hoping that the manufacturers will be stepping up production very soon and the government will go after the hoarders. My guess is that the hoarders are going to sell it online for vastly inflated prices. Sanitizer is gone, too, and cheap canned food like beans, pasta and soup are rapidly diminishing which people with low incomes like us need to get through each month. I expect we'll get by but it's terribly stressful worrying about getting the food you can afford and basic hygiene products you need.

Unlike some of my friends, we have enough income to get by with ODSP. People who aren't sick aren't going to get sick pay even when they're sent home for a few weeks and many workplaces don't even offer that but at least there's EI. One of my friends was sent home, no sick pay and another friend was "laid off" presumably so he could apply for EI, but he's not sure he has enough hours.

It looks like the government will be stepping up to offer benefits for those employees forced to go home, childcare at home, money for businesses for lost income and increased GST credit payments for people like us. So much for balancing the budget for the next couple of years until we have a vaccine. If they don't want the economy to completely collapse, they're going to have to step up in a big way.

Evidently, SARS killed more people as a percentage (about 10%) but it didn't spread that fast. COVID-19 spreads like wildfire. One medical officer said the province isn't doing enough with the ban on meetings larger than 50 people saying that one person in that room with COVID-19 could infect 15-35 others.

Regarding oil prices, I can't help but ask, Buster, do you have oil stocks?

[Jason]

Looks like SARS lasted about four months before it was contained, but six from the first case reported.

And they've been saying that SARS is the closest coronavirus that resembles COVID-19. But back then, especially in Canada, we basically didn't know what we were doing, it wasn't clear who was in charge, lack of communication between governments, lack of knowledge for healthcare workers of how to isolate patients or even recognize the illness before it became widespread. We should have been practising social distancing back then, but do you remember anything about that being recommended by the government? I don't.

So I'm thinking the worse result is that it could be four months before it's contained. But who knows? SARS mutated and became more severe but less able to spread. We still had it around for another two years globally before it was reported that there were no new cases.

Some news articles say we're getting ahead of COVID-19, some say we're too late and still unprepared. I guess we'll see.

[buster]

Jason asked, "Regarding oil prices, I can't help but ask, Buster, do you have oil stocks? "

Probably, but that's not my concern. Alberta is already struggling, and oil is a huge part of the Canadian economy. My 2 million dollar loss wont hurt me much.