Election Night Live posts

[Jason]

I'm off to bed. Too depressing

I'm with you. Ultimately, Biden could win in enough states with the uncounted votes but Fromm on the CBC is saying that tomorrow Trump will go to the courts tomorrow to try to prevent those votes from being count. And most of the judges that will decide whether to do that were Trump appointees. Ick. He may end up stealing the election and we'll never know.

[Jason]

Okay, my last post just because I found this so interesting. Some of the results we've seen aren't actually counted votes, they're estimated using some new-fangled algorithm. Many of the actual votes aren't counted for day(s) until after election night. See attached graphic. That includes several swing states. The graphic is from this article at the Washington Post. I'm just doing a 30-day trial subscription which cost me a US dollar.

I have no idea whether there are enough mail-in ballots to switch wins but even 1 or two could cost Trump the presidency. Here's hoping. I need something, anything to grip onto. Otherwise, I will have to avoid reading anything but Canadian news for the next 4 years lest my face turns the colour of Trump's on a regular basis.

[buster]

Welcome back fans to this exciting playoff game.

Depending on which side you are on, you should not cry or cheer yet. It ain't over 'til it's over. It's almost noon Wednesday as I write this, and here's how the universe will unfold. Maybe, sort of.

Present moment, already declared wins and losses for electoral votes: Biden 238 Trump 213

Undeclared States - Trump will take all except maybe these three where Biden just barely leads.

Wisconsin Biden lead 0.7% - 10 electoral votes

Michigan Biden lead 0.6% -  16 electoral votes

Nevada Biden lead 0.6% - lead 6 electoral votes

If Trump loses all of these, Biden gathers 32 electoral votes, to go with his already declared 238 votes, and that gives him the magic number of 270, which wins by a hair.

And of course, if the count tilts the other way in any of these three, Trump wins. My guess is, since there are many votes not yet counted in Nevada, this is where the decision will be made.

[fox]

I wouldn't rule out Pennsylvania or Georgia yet, despite Trump leading. PA has a lot of city votes outstanding, plus the early ballots. For Georgia, my understanding is that a lot of the uncounted votes are in the Atlanta suburbs. Georgia will probably go to Trump, but PA is a toss-up at worst, based on what has yet to be counted.

[buster]

"I wouldn't rule out Pennsylvania or Georgia yet, despite Trump leading."

You are a true optimist. Pessimism is embedded in my nature. The good thing about this is that often I'm pleasantly surprised.

[fox]

Wisconsin has been called by the AP for Biden. Biden leading in Michigan by 60,000 with 99% of votes counted. Biden leading in Nevada with 75% of votes counted. Trump's margin in PA down to 5.5% with lots of votes to be counted in Biden-rich areas. Washington Post probability estimates, based on existing tally and status of votes to be counted gives Biden a better chance of winning than Trump in PA. So I am cautiously optimistic.

[buster]

I am leery of Pa and Ga. But a road to victory exists without them. As Fox mentioned, at the present moment, Biden leads in Nevada by a smidgen above one-half of one percent. If Trump wins, he is the president again. If Biden wins, he replaces the incumbent. Approximately 80% of the votes have been counted. Nevada has said they will release results Thursday morning.

And of course we will have overtime with the recounts. A tough, tough battle for either to lose, and one half of the USA is going to be sad.

Until tomorrow then.

[fox]

Trump margin in PA continues to decline; down to 3.7% now with 89% of the vote counted. No change in Nevada, and not expecting more results there until tomorrow.

[Jason]

Nevada and Arizona aren't called yet. If Biden can both of those, he'll be President, even without Pennsylvania

Biden is leading in Arizona by 3 points with 83% of the vote counted. He may have clinched it as most of the counties now have 82-84% of the vote counted but it hasn't been called. It looks like Arizona has some mixed constituencies and rural counties where Biden is ahead. WaPo says there are 400,000 votes to count, but the vast majority favour Biden. On, and in case you wondered, citizens voted 60/40 for legalizing marijuana (they might need it after this is over) and 52/48 for increasing income tax. This has to be the only state anywhere that voted for higher taxes.

Nevada hasn't been called either with between 85-90% of the votes counted. Biden leads in Nevada and as Fox mentioned, the uncounted votes are already in Las Vegas which favours Democrats. The next largest area is Reno which is also a Democratic area.

So Biden could very well still win this if Trump doesn't get the results annulled. I would any conscientious judge to not allow this but judges down there seem to be so political, it's hard to say.

[Jason]

Sadly, I think that Trump will win Pennsylvania based on WaPo's analysis. More than 200 K votes remain in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh where Biden has a large margin on Trump so they'll likely break Democratic there. There are still votes in strongly Republican areas (and where Trump is outpacing his numbers from 2016) so unless the uncounted ballots go dramatically Democratic, Trump will probably win Penn's Woods. I think the anti-fracking stance of Biden probably hurt him there but not as much as you'd think.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/vote-count/

[Jason]

Btw, the quote in my signature line is particularly apropos. Trudeau used it when he lost the election to Joe Clark in '79.

[buster]

Breaking News!!! See picture.

[fox]

Sadly, I think that Trump will win Pennsylvania based on WaPo's analysis. More than 200 K votes remain in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh where Biden has a large margin on Trump so they'll likely break Democratic there. There are still votes in strongly Republican areas (and where Trump is outpacing his numbers from 2016) so unless the uncounted ballots go dramatically Democratic, .....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/vote-count/

I beg to differ with you on this prediction. The difference between the two is now down to 2.1%, from 3.7% yesterday evening. If you look at the same Washington Post site, but this part of it, you'll see the projections ("estimates of final vote tally"). The darkest line in those estimates is what the Post thinks is the most likely outcome. It clearly shows the blue line (Biden) well ahead of the the red line (Trump).

Update: Difference is now down to 1.9% (120,000 votes), with an estimated 9% left to count. Given that some 6,300,000 votes have already been counted, there must be some 600,000 votes left to count. Biden would have to win some 60% of them to win the state.

[Jason]

Fox, you're comparing a prediction I made 12 hours before yours when less of the remaining vote was counted. So you're saying in effect, I beg to differ now with your prediction 12 hours before when much less of the vote was counted. Looking at it now, I beg to differ with myself, too. I'm pretty sure that dark line was in a different place late last night. I believe WaPo was saying a likely win for Trump then. I was trying to figure out why Pennsylvania's vote was so important to you and then I remembered it's where you're from. I get it now.

[Jason]

Evan Siegfried, a Republican Strategist, had this to say about the eventual outcome on CTV News:

"I have to believe there is more of a chance of a unicorn flying over the White House than of Donald Trump getting a second term."