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#11

Politics, Society and News. / Is World War III coming?

Last post by Jason - August 26, 2026, 04:51:32 PM

There are a number of similarities between the time before WWII and our present situation. Perhaps I'm too alarmist, but I would suggest that they could set the stage for, at the very least, a regional conflict. Whether we would call that a world war is a matter of semantics, since it would involve multiple countries and/or NATO.

• An aggressive authoritarian power bent on territorial expansion and restoring the glory of a former state
• Continual peace overtures to end or prevent war to a non-cooperative nation
• Complacency - While NATO countries are individually providing support for Ukraine, they haven't addressed multiple incursions into those of member countries
• Europe is beginning to increase military spending
• Potential Isolationism of the US - Trump has suggested the US might not honour its NATO commitments if Russia invades Europe
• Putin and oligarchs in his inner circle want to regain former territories they lost after the Soviet Union fell
• Alliances - NATO must respond if a nation in the pact is attacked; in WWII, the UK and France had a pact to defend Poland
• China is increasingly flexing its muscles toward Taiwan, and buying Russian oil when others won't in violation of international treaty
• North Korea has been supplying weapons and personnel to fight and to take over jobs left vacant by Russian draftees

There are differences, too, in that NATO countries did step up to defend Ukraine materially, even if it was a delayed response (Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, and Ukraine has been fighting Russia-supplied insurgents in Ukraine since). And NATO is a stronger alliance than the mutual defence pacts pre-WWII, especially if the US stays on board. And that's the biggest issue: whether the US will support Europe in full-scale action. Putin may take advantage of the apparent weakness of the relationship between the US and the rest of NATO.

In conclusion, I don't think a world war is a foregone conclusion or highly likely, but I don't think it's unlikely, either. If Putin feels he's pressed into a corner, he may feel a war is the best way to arouse the Russian people.

What do you guys think? Do you think there are similarities, or do you think I'm nuts?

#12

General Discussion / Re: A Peterborough Walking Tou...

Last post by fox - August 26, 2026, 04:34:14 PM

I don't know how I could have missed this fine adventure, until now. Way to go, Harry! I have walked and cycled along most of this route at different times, but you made this a noteworthy adventure, and a good story!

At the end of September I will be doing a little adventure of my own, with two old friends. This one will be on bicycle; a slight modification of the Simcoe County Trail. It will be 200 km in four days; overnighting a B&Bs and motels. So an average of 50 km/day for a guy that hasn't done more than 25 all season! I'm not quite as old as you, Harry, but I'm no spring chicken either. I expect this to be quite a challenge and like you, I look forward to enjoying the mostly natural scenery.

#13

Politics, Society and News. / Re: Simple Known Dangers with ...

Last post by Jason - August 26, 2026, 03:52:21 PM

I did a quick search, and it appears the national debt-to-GDP ratio was highest after WWII, at 127.5%. But that's the entire federal debt, including domestic and foreign debt. I think the number you gave was just domestic debt. Either way, that ratio has exceeded that at the end of WWII. That's a real problem. Not because the US might default on its debt anytime soon, but because the higher interest rates to attract investors will make it increasingly difficult to balance the budget. And of course, that means higher deficits unless they start making mammoth cuts now. For now, the stability of the American economy and dollar keeps investors happy, but that won't last forever. They've already had their credit rating decreased at least once.

That's the situation Canada was in during the mid-90s, when interest on the debt was the largest single expense. I don't think we were anywhere near this ratio, though. Interest rates were ridiculously high because of an overheated economy and the central bank's focus on stopping inflation, and of course, that led to huge cuts, mostly in transfer payments to the provinces. And we still suffer as a result of those cuts. The federal government used to cover 50% of healthcare. Last I heard it was around 20%.

[look]

#14

General Discussion / Re: A Peterborough Walking Tou...

Last post by Jason - August 26, 2026, 01:59:57 PM

Thanks for sharing your adventures, Harry. I enjoyed them.

If you ever do this again- and I know you said you probably won't- I would love to join you guys. Contrary to popular belief, I can walk. I walk several times a week to and from Lansdowne Place, which takes 45 minutes both ways at my brisk walking pace. I do get tired from it, but I've also walked downtown sometimes or from the hospital, which are one-hour walks from my place. I only look out of shape. Okay, I'm still out of shape, but I can do walks if the heat isn't too bad.

[Linking to the start. The final five kilometres]

#15

General Discussion / Re: A Peterborough Walking Tou...

Last post by buster - August 26, 2026, 09:55:36 AM

Linking to the start. The final five kilometres

We started our walk today wearing jackets because of slightly cooler weather. And at least for me, there was a sense of melancholy that matched the partially cloudy sky, and the clouds weren't the puffy white ones we watched as kids as they changed shape. We would reach our forty kilometre mark, link up with the beginning, and be quite certain our circle route was done. This would be not an accomplishment, but an end.

Our long lives are littered with endings, especially when you're ancient like me, and it's good to walk with Bill who has a much more optimistic view. He always sees beginnings.

So we began our final day with smiles, heading north on the bike path that goes from Nicholls Oval Park to Trent University. And we did meet others on the trail, and we saw friendliness and smiles, a product I think of being outdoors in a sort of natural environment.

All the drama, surprises, and ponds were used up on the first five days, but it was, while quiet, pleasant to be strolling along with talk of other times, enjoying the end of the summer. And the river was beside the trail as were the gulls and the geese.

There is a bridge that crosses the river, and this route joins with Hilliard, and it goes up steep inclines to the area where Marilyn and I live. This bridge I have crossed many times, but the most dramatic crossing occurred about half a century ago. At that time the police used to auction bicycles for really good prices that they had accumulated, and so a bid of maybe $20 would get you a usable bike, and that's what our children had for years.

Back in those days we simply left our bikes leaning against the house, not worried about theft. But one time our daughter's bike disappeared, a cheap full sized racer, and we never saw it again until one day as I walked across this bridge I saw it at the bottom of the river, resplendent with its ugly brown frame. Retrieving it seemed dangerous and decidedly not worth it. But I saw on later trips that it had gone somewhere, but not back to our house.

Anyway, Bill and I spent some time on the bridge, admiring the river and trees.  The weather edged itself to pleasant, and then we resumed our northern walk.

About where the path goes by Thomas A Stewart we found we could spend some time to the left of the path, and we kidded ourselves this route was a little less civilized, ignoring that the grass had been cut. Jackson Park it was not, but we were at least away from people for a bit and that's usually refreshing.

We stopped at a friendly bench that had been paid for by some acquaintances of ours and ate the two plumbs Bill had brought. When you're covering ground, in a canoe, biking, or hiking, eating takes on an aura of ritual, so we were a bit quieter. We were outside, there was a tall Spruce and an even taller Red Pine, and our falling apart world felt almost sane.

And if you know the trail, you know it crosses a road, and we decided to leave the path and stay on the road because it hugs the river, and a river is often more interesting than trees and grass, which it proved to be.

On the first day of our hike on the other side of we river, we had gone out onto the island at the zoo. We had that human-less green world to ourselves, and enjoyed the almost natural conditions of trees and water, but with a civilizing touch of a bench. We sat and I don't think we talked much in the silence. And at that point we had still about thirty-five kilometres to go, most of it uphill if I remember correctly.

From where we stopped on today's walk, we could see the same island on the river's other side. I measured it on a computer map when we finished today. At that point of today's hike we had only one and a quarter kilometres to go to the car. (I wished we had ten more days of hiking left.) But the island I suppose will always be a symbol of beginnings now in my mind, whatever that means at my age.

It was lucky that the conversation was good for the final 1.25 k, because the trail has left nothing stuck in my mind. But the coffee was good at Tims, as was the chat. And we agree that this didn't match our canoeing of the Trent Severn system, or later the canoeing of the Rideau canal, but it was pretty good for old guys.

Summing Up

It's worth noting that millions of people travel thousands of expensive miles to visit quite amazing places. And that is completely understandable. But none of this circle route that the two of us enjoyed was ever more than 9 kilometres from my house, and many of the things we experienced were new to me, especially some of the things that fellow traveller Bill found for day 4.

We met someone from Poland, and someone from England, and a variety of people from Peterborough, each seeming to be unique. Smiling faces were the norm, and I attribute this to being outside in greenery, and walking. The mother duck, the frog, the osprey, and the people looking the other way may very well have been smiling too, but of this I can't be sure. I do know the little ones pulling their parents towards the train at the zoo were on the edge of laughing.

And finally, I am certain that being outside and walking in the trees is something I'll continue doing until my legs fold under me.

#16

Politics, Society and News. / Re: Simple Known Dangers with ...

Last post by buster - August 21, 2026, 10:46:23 AM

There are quotes from the Internet:

"The U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 123%, following national debt figures surpassing the $40 trillion milestone. This metric illustrates that total public debt slightly exceeds one and a quarter times the entire annual economic output of the United States."

" Historically, the ratio peaked around 106% following World War II in 1946, dropped to a modern low near 31.8% in 1974, and surged past historical records to cross 130% during the COVID-19 pandemic."

The bump during the pandemic is understandable, but that is past and yet the debt is growing at an amazing rate.

#17

Politics, Society and News. / Re: Simple Known Dangers with ...

Last post by Jason - August 20, 2026, 10:50:34 PM

It'd be interesting to compare the level of US debt relative to GDP now to what it was at its highest since they started measuring it, probably during WW2.

#18

Politics, Society and News. / Re: Simple Known Dangers with ...

Last post by Jason - August 20, 2026, 10:43:51 PM

I expect the bubble in AI companies to burst any day. At least RAM and graphics card prices will come back down.

[Debt]

#19

Politics, Society and News. / Re: Simple Known Dangers with ...

Last post by buster - August 20, 2026, 03:08:11 PM

I found an unexpected danger from AI which I hadn't noticed, and it ties together AI, Trump, bond rates, taxes, and USA debt. I'm not saying this will all play out negatively, but if we were watching a movie we'd say, "I know where this is going!"
a) Debt. The USA has reached the unbelievable level of $40 trillion dollars in debt. This is generally speaking borrowed money that is owed, and as with credit cards, payment has to be paid to the lenders, some of whom live in foreign countries. To clarify, the interest on this debt amounts to 3 billion dollars per day, or $30,000 per second. So money has to be borrowed to pay the interest. Hmmm.
b) Taxes. Governments usually raise taxes to cover increased costs. Trump and the Republicans cut taxes. They think this will encourage more economic expansion which will help replace the cut taxes. However the growth is doing little to replace the money, and this is not unusual.
c) Trump has an odd war going on with friends and foes. Tariffs make the whole world's economy less certain, and this is directed at friends. The war with Iran needs little comment to understand its costs.
d) AI needs to borrow billions to develop, which drives bond rates even higher, which makes borrowing more expensive for everyone. What happened in 2007 might repeat. 30 year bonds are earning the highest rate since the collapse of 2007.

#20

General Discussion / Re: A Peterborough Walking Tou...

Last post by buster - August 19, 2026, 08:18:58 PM

Still one section to go Bill. Maybe Monday or Tuesday.