There are a number of similarities between the time before WWII and our present situation. Perhaps I'm too alarmist, but I would suggest that they could set the stage for, at the very least, a regional conflict. Whether we would call that a world war is a matter of semantics, since it would involve multiple countries and/or NATO.
- An aggressive authoritarian power bent on territorial expansion and restoring the glory of a former state
- Continual peace overtures to end or prevent war to a non-cooperative nation
- Complacency - While NATO countries are individually providing support for Ukraine, they haven't addressed multiple incursions into those of member countries
- Europe is beginning to increase military spending
- Potential Isolationism of the US - Trump has suggested the US might not honour its NATO commitments if Russia invades Europe
- Putin and oligarchs in his inner circle want to regain former territories they lost after the Soviet Union fell
- Alliances - NATO must respond if a nation in the pact is attacked; in WWII, the UK and France had a pact to defend Poland
- China is increasingly flexing its muscles toward Taiwan, and buying Russian oil when others won't in violation of international treaty
- North Korea has been supplying weapons and personnel to fight and to take over jobs left vacant by Russian draftees
There are differences, too, in that NATO countries did step up to defend Ukraine materially, even if it was a delayed response (Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, and Ukraine has been fighting Russia-supplied insurgents in Ukraine since). And NATO is a stronger alliance than the mutual defence pacts pre-WWII, especially if the US stays on board. And that's the biggest issue: whether the US will support Europe in full-scale action. Putin may take advantage of the apparent weakness of the relationship between the US and the rest of NATO.
In conclusion, I don't think a world war is a foregone conclusion or highly likely, but I don't think it's unlikely, either. If Putin feels he's pressed into a corner, he may feel a war is the best way to arouse the Russian people.
What do you guys think? Do you think there are similarities, or do you think I'm nuts?
1. I'm surprised you've shed your optimistic persona.
2. There are so many lunkhead bullies leading countries now that war is totally possible.
3. You didn't suggest the USA would start a war. Oh, I'm sorry, they already did. I forgot.
4. I doubt China will risk one. They are the world's second largest economy, and seem more clever than some as they continue prospering.
5. Russia-Ukraine is the most touchy in my opinion, as I'd guess your opinion too.
6. War seems so silly considering problems with water, heat, fires, fuel and debt in the world. As a group though, I'm not sure if humans are very smart. Almost anyone reading this can note mind-boggling examples of group stupidity taking place every day.