You can find reports on the Internet of Musk musing that in 10 to 20 years people may not have to save for retirement because the world will have unbelievable machine intelligence and robots to do whatever and we'll all be wealthy beyond our wildest dreams. As someone who was born in the 30's, I've seen and heard of many predictions over the years, and I have to start with an oft quoted funny line, attributed to more than one person:
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future,"
I would love to see other predictions from others that never quite made it into reality. Here are a couple:
a) The office will be paperless.
b) We will learn without teachers.
c) There will be food for all the world.
d) WW1: the war to end all wars.
e) In the 50's many thought we'd fly small planes rather than drive cars in the future. I read this in magazines.
So here are Musk's predicting weaknesses:
1. History is crowded with 'black swans', totally unexpected events that changed the world, at least for awhile. Covid is an example, as well as cities running out of water, such as Tehran approaching a taps off date, or heat and drought not seen in the US west since the 1600s.
2. We share this planet with many species that we depend upon, like algae for oxygen, bees for many crops. If they come to harm, humans will come to harm.
3. Most technological changes cannot be done quickly in any culture. Ontario is commencing a project to build near Port Hope a nuclear generating system. It's to come on line in 2040.
4. The development of androids, their manufacturing and training, is not a simple process. 10 to 20 years to get to a world where they are everywhere doing the work seems a bit optimistic.
5. However, in my opinion, the stumbling block will be, and has always been, that when the technological problems are overcome, we live in a hierarchical society. I doubt Musk intends to give up some of his 600 billion dollars to spread the wealth. We might not need to use money, but we will find ways to hoard power and influence.
There is no natural system to distribute this possible new wealth that has traditionally used getting paid for work. And money does not naturally 'trickle down' to the poor. Read almost any historical description of an era. Presently money is being concentrated more and more in the hands of a few. These people will not give up their position on a whim.
And the aggressive nature of humans can lead to cataclysmic events, or the natural world might decide it's had enough and get rid of us. Accurate prediction is a difficult task. We hardly understand the world as it is, and it's right in front of us.
And there is the simple practical consideration that the redistribution of wealth will require some form of legislation in most countries. Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen.
I don't deny Musk is bright in certain areas. But don't apply a 'halo effect' to his understanding of psychology, sociology, history, or politics.
I think he's talking through his hat. And start saving now for old age. You'll need the money.