The assassination attempt on Trump, the mispeaking of Biden, and the presidential voting system in the USA guarantee Trump will win if Biden stays in the race. If the Democrats replace Biden they have a fighting chance.
This BBC article lists the possible replacements in a simple, clear manner. I hope it's Gretchen because she's the prettiest, as well as being a good politician.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c80ekdwk9zro
It amazes me that a convicted criminal, such as Trump, can run for President of the US.
Quote from: ssfc72 on July 19, 2024, 08:33:04 AMIt amazes me that a convicted criminal, such as Trump, can run for President of the US.
Ah, but it's all fixed by the Sleepy Joe and his corrupt administration! It's a witchhunt, I say, a witchhunt. No President has EVER been treated the way I, I mean "he", has (lost myself there). If he takes off his shirt, you can see his scars. UNFAIR!!!! :D
I entirely agree with you, Bill. And now they're making it so future presidents are immune from any crimes as long as they can argue it was an "official" act, an overly broad and useless term. He's the military leader there so does that mean anything he does with it (an official act) is fine?
But seriously, all the other charges against him will likely be dropped with the SCOTUS decision on presidential immunity. The other charges won't be tried until after the election. And presidents can't be prosecuted while in office (before this SCOTUS decision, even) so he'll pardon himself at the end of the term or step down weeks before he has to and have his VP do it. That's assuming there will be another fair US election ever again.
Buster, you're right. I wouldn't say
guaranteed, though. There's something in the US known as the
October surprise. Generally, something happens just before the election and tosses it all in the air. Hilary Clinton might have won if it wasn't for her October surprise (i.e. deleted emails). Maybe somebody will attempt a hit on Biden. Maybe, it will come out that Trump had sex with an underage girl (or even worse for MAGA Republicans, a non-white boy). The MAGA cultists will believe it's fixed but real Republicans might not. And swing voters aren't likely to fall for the "fix" schtick.
There's hope, but it's rapidly diminishing. I estimate a 5% chance that Biden can still pull it off. He will have to get every Democrat in America out to vote and have Republicans (the non-MAGA) crew sit it out because they won't vote for Democrats but can't stomach Trump anymore.
But if the Democrats replace Biden with someone good, they could have a 40% chance. Every day counts. The longer it takes, the harder it will be to win. Playing dirty might help, too. MAGA Republicans and Trump aren't nice, the Democrats can't play nice to beat them. They can't afford to.
Looks as if Harris will be the candidate. If you don't know much about her, here's an easy summary. BBC again.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2501n5rvvno
She won't stand a chance. No criminal record. :-)
Quote from: ssfc72 on July 22, 2024, 08:15:41 AMShe won't stand a chance. No criminal record. :-)
LOL. I hope that doesn't become a necessary job requirement for the office. Trump has certainly shown it's not a dealbreaker.
Quote from: buster on July 16, 2024, 12:04:36 PMThis BBC article lists the possible replacements in a simple, clear manner. I hope it's Gretchen because she's the prettiest, as well as being a good politician.
Even before reading the article, I knew she couldn't choose a woman. It's bad enough for a certain segment of the population that she's a woman, more so because she's a racialized one. She has to pick a boring white dude from one of the swing states, maybe even a Christian, as hard as they are to find among Democrats. If age didn't matter Andy Beshear (Kentucky governor) would fill the bill.
Tim Walz, Minnesota Governor, formerly worked 20 years for the National Guard, has religious convictions and a plain-spoken manner. Senator Mark Kelly looks good, too, former astronaut and from Arizona, a swing state that could open up the midwest. Husband to Democratic Gabby Giffords who was seriously injured in a mass shooting. And he has occasionally criticized the Biden Administration. While that could cause some tension with Harris, it's sure to make him more presentable to Republicrats (Red-leaning Democrats) and Independents.
Which one of the MEN would you choose, Buster? "Pretty" might deliver the men's vote but often has the opposite effect on women.
"Which one of the MEN would you choose, Buster?"
Not familiar with any of them enough to make a choice. No idea.
Sorry I put this thread in the wrong section Jason. But anyway picked this up today.
"Bloomberg reported on Saturday that Harris is considering a wide range of vice presidential candidates from the Democratic Party's bench. However, sources familiar with the process indicate that a short list has emerged, featuring three elected officials with nationwide appeal: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz."
Quote from: buster on July 27, 2024, 05:51:47 PMSorry I put this thread in the wrong section Jason. But anyway picked this up today.
No biggie. I never noticed. But I'll move it now.
I noticed in several polls that Harris is gaining on Trump in some swing states and ahead in others. But most are within the error rate so statistically tied. It should make for an interesting election.
The Harris and the Dems seem to be using "weird" more to describe Trump. Good choice. The Democrats need to play a little bit dirtier and use some names since Trump is getting way so much of it. But "weird" fits the bill without being nasty.
The Trump campaign or maybe just Trump appears to be flailing suggesting that Harris isn't Black. And Trump even said she failed the bar. Sheesh. Are they going to appeal to their voters and the white supremacists or try to reach the moderates? They're going to need to if they want to win. And moderates aren't going to put up with that kind of foolishness.
The Republicans keep saying that the Dems are unfairly saying Trump is a fascist and a threat to democracy. Meanwhile, Trump is telling Christian groups they only need to vote him for once and never have to vote again. Scary.
Looks like Kamala Harris made a good choice as a running mate. He's as energetic. And he complements her perfectly filling out the areas where she isn't the strongest, like appealing to Mid-Western and rural voters. I watched Harris speaking in Pennsylvania before a huge crowd followed by Walz. They both inspired me despite me not being (or wanting to be) an American. While they're still the underdogs, they have the momentum. Even if Trump still wins, It won't be a cakewalk. Some in the news are talking about what happens in the case of a tie. It goes to Congress like this:
1. The House of Representatives chooses the President. If they can't agree, then...
2. The Senate decides. If they can't agree...
3. The next person in succession becomes the President, the Speaker of the House.
One fascinating feature (bug?) is that the House of Representatives isn't limited to those two. If a candidate receives some electoral votes, they can be chosen. So RFK Jr. could technically become the President although that'd be very unlikely.
Until recently, the House was likely to go Republican with the Democrats losing some seats unlike in the mid-terms. So they'd probably pick Trump but it's not clear. There are Republicans who are more moderate and would have reservations. Certainly, all the Demos would vote against that. The Senate could go either way but if tied, the VP decides. But can a VP vote on whether she can become President? I suspect so, but it'd be unusual! So we might not have a winner until January if the House has to decide. Potentially longer if it has to go to the Senate.
I guess this topic is dead. :D
Not quite dead. It is worth looking at the consequences to the Republian party because the Harris is the opponent. To many of us Trump's speeches have always seemed erratic and disconnected. But some analysis apparently shows this has developed beyond that to confusion and repetition lately. His comments about her are silly. (She has a low IQ was one) He is, I suspect, unnerved by having a real opponent.
Try a Google search with the two words 'Trump dementia'.
Even more so now. I don't know if it's dementia so much as he's so used to fighting Biden that he's like a stuck record. Even without dementia, the older you are the more inflexible you can think. Neuroplasticity increases. He's talking about Harris more now but still was thinking that Biden would go into the convention and take back the nomination. He wishes. The whole Republican campaign is stuck. He was supposed to speak about the economy and did some stupid thing with different sizes of Tic Tacs. He might have cracked under the pressure.
Watch. He might not care because they plan to steal the election. Not that it'll succeed but he's so used to getting away with crime, he thinks he's untouchable.
Is Harris really the underdog? Several recent polls show her ahead in the overall vote, and ahead in most of the swing states. Still early days, though.
She no longer is but her campaign still uses that as a talking point. That's understandable.
From what I've read, of the 7 swing states, she's ahead in 5, tied in 1 and behind in 1. However, 4 of the states she's ahead in are small enough to be within the margin of error. So they could be tied or Trump even ahead in a couple. But as the news points out, she has a lot of paths to victory, Trump doesn't have many.
Good to have you back Mike.
"Is Harris really the underdog?"
I sat in our camper in Alabama and watched Trump defeat Clinton when the poles suggested a clear victory for her. A few things contributed to this loss, even though in the whole country she got more votes.
It's the electoral college that matters, not the popular vote. And the 'swing states' can be won with a slight shift in votes, so all state votes can be won or lost by minuscule margins.
The Republicans have supporters who always show up to vote, like the evangelical whites, the elderly, and the wealthy. The Democrats have many supporters but some of them don't show up at the voting booths, like the young, and the non whites. When the Democrats get all their supporters out, they tend to win.
The USA is the land of the free, and everyone is valued equally, though in practise 'some are less valued than others'. I heard tales in our time in the south that indicated what in polite terms would be called 'bias'. Harris lacks two qualities that some voters will not tolerate: she is not a man, and she is not white. (I was asked by a neighbour here within the last year, "Don't you think a business should be run by a man?")
People tend to get their news and views from social media and YouTube, so they can easily retain their in some cases idiotic beliefs. Those who believe the election was stolen is a surprising 1/3 of the population (NBC) when it should be approximately 0%.
I think you'll find this time around that abortion will get the Democrats out to vote. That awful 2025 plan calls for a federal ban on abortions. Trump can pretend to distance himself from it all he wants but it's his former advisors and chief staff (including his Chief of Staff) that wrote it. And unless I heard wrongly, J.D. Vance wrote the forward to it.
Hilary Clinton had that whole private email server issue land in her lap, rightfully or wrongfully and that's what did her in. Trump also ran a good campaign if I recall correctly. Nasty, but well-run.
If you look at the approval ratings, Trump isn't getting the fanfare he got first time around. And his campaign is terrible. All character attacks, no policy. But what's worse is that Trump seems less energetic, almost lethargic, this time around. I think the smaller rallies are really getting to him.
And remember he was defeated last time around. If the same people who voted for Biden in 2020 vote for Harris, she should get a comfortable win in the electoral college. But the wild card here is RFK, Jr. Now that's endorsed Trump, will his (even more wacko) supporters take their 5% to him, split some with the Democrats, or just not bother voting? Anti-vaccine nonsense used to be a left-wing conspiracy, now it's a right-wing conspiracy. And Trump's worshippers align with that view perfectly.
Regardless, the popular vote doesn't matter; it's the states, as you point out, Buster. I don't recall if Clinton was ahead in the swing states back then. Also remember that Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, played spoiler in that election. There's no doubt she sucked votes away from the Democrats.
But as Mike says, it's early.
I still stand by what I wrote. I don't think if Harris wins it will be easy:
" It's the electoral college that matters, not the popular vote. And the 'swing states' can be won with a slight shift in votes, many state votes can be won or lost by minuscule shifts.
The Republicans have supporters who always show up to vote, like the evangelical whites, the elderly, and the wealthy. The Democrats have many supporters but some of them don't show up at the voting booths, like the young, and the non whites. When the Democrats get all their supporters out, they tend to win.
I heard tales in our time in the south that indicated what in polite terms would be called 'bias'. Harris lacks two qualities that some voters will not tolerate: she is not a man, and she is not white.
People tend to get their news and views from social media and YouTube, so they can easily retain their in some cases idiotic beliefs."
I will add the Angus Reid poles
https://angusreid.org/us-election-polling-harris-trump-democratic-national-convention/
and note that they agree Trump is behind. They also note the white voters favour Trump by a lot. Go to the site and scroll and poke about. Lots of interesting stuff from a very reputable site. Clear and simple graphs. Democrats still have to get the vote out.
Let's not forget abortion, though. That gives Democrats a strong reason to vote, especially the youth vote or at least the female youth vote. Trump is the reason for Roe v. Wade being overturned and he wears it with pride. Plan 2025 has a goal of a federal ban on abortions although to be fair, he hasn't said he supports that. He wants to leave it to the states. But, he believes that the abortion pill shouldn't be sold. In states where abortion is practically banned, that may be the only way of getting one.
I'm not saying it will be easy for her. But I am saying that Democrats have a strong reason for showing up at the polls, not just for this reason but all the scary stuff in Plan 2025 and what many Democrats fear could be the end of democracy in the US.
Those are strong motivators if that information gets out there. And the Democrats have done a lot of fundraising since Harris took over the nomination. On the first day, Biden dropped out, she raised more money that day than Trump had for the entire month. And that was with Trump ahead.
You can be the pessimist. I'm going to play the role of optimist.
However, I'm worried about how much time is left until the election giving lots of opportunities for crap to happen. I find it amusing that when Biden stepped down, the US media wondered if there was enough time to switch gears. Meanwhile, our federal election campaigns are only a month long. I think that's too short but most Canadians likely think it's too long. :'(
Thanks for the link. I love charts!
Quote from: busterI still stand by what I wrote. I don't think if Harris wins it will be easy:
" It's the electoral college that matters, not the popular vote. And the 'swing states' can be won with a slight shift in votes, many state votes can be won or lost by minuscule shifts.
Nobody said it'd be easy. After having previously worked on campaigns for almost 20 years, I can say elections aren't easy. And nobody knows that like the NDP. :) I'm just pointing out that you haven't considered some other factors at play in the 2016 election and at play now.
Usually when someone says, "I stand by what I wrote", they're noting that they disagree with someone. Did you notice I said:
Quote from: JasonRegardless, the popular vote doesn't matter; it's the states, as you point out, Buster.
I even gave you credit. No good deed goes unpunished! :)
Some looks at polls by state here:
https://www.270towin.com/states/
I believe that Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan are swing states. Florida used to be one but seems to have gone Republican the last few cycles. I might be missing one. If you look up these states, the site suggests they're "too close to call". That's unsettling.
" the site suggests they're "too close to call". That's unsettling. "
'Unsettling' is a very moderate word. I'm as close to ninety as I am to eighty, so I wont be around to watch the conflagration. You youngsters will live in the new world. But 'unsettling' doesn't seem to suit.
A close friend said to me about half a century ago. "You'd be surprised, Harry, how many people are just plain stupid." I don't have trouble really with a Republican being elected, though I tend to lean left. I have trouble with having Trump as the leader of the most powerful nation on the planet.
It's going to be close.
We have an American friend who is packed and ready to come to live with us. He is beyond upset.
Popular vote doesn't matter. It's their election procedure, designed to protect the powers of the individual states.
Quote from: buster on September 01, 2024, 07:29:50 PMPopular vote doesn't matter. It's their election procedure, designed to protect the powers of the individual states.
It was designed because the constitutional framers didn't think ordinary people should be able to choose the President. The electoral vote system was created as an alternative to that (I took American history). The result is the same, but the impetus is different. The Senate, however, was to give smaller states more power than their population would suggest. So little Rhode Island has as much power in the Senate as mighty California.
Here's an enlightening video (11 minutes) about how Harris is increasing the margin with certain groups of voters and taking Republican support. She was behind in Latino votes by double digits and now she's ahead by double digits. She had a ~40 advantage with Black voters, now it's almost 80%! And she's gaining ground with young voters. Yes, I know you'll say they don't vote much. 50% of young voters
do vote. They also discuss with some pollsters what it all means.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8yp0bQNL3E