Because of my great age, I have seen a number of shocks in the markets and society in general. However, and this includes Sars, I cannot recall one shock that involved the need not to gather. This makes it unique.
I think it would be interesting to discuss personal experiences and predictions for the next six months.
Here are some experiences: our friends aren't gathering for socials, we don't enter neighbour's houses but talk outside, we probably wont have family gatherings, we're not going to the cinema, our final concert of the season (mostly jazz) has been cancelled, we're not going to restaurants, our grandchildren are trying to finish their university courses via the Internet.
Here are some predictions: Canada will go on lock-down as has Italy, Poland and Spain, which means almost everything will be shut down except pharmacies and grocery stores, and finacial markets will plummet.
I think this will be the most profound and interesting event of my life.
Personally, I'm mainly just washing my hands more. I'm trying not to go out more than I need to, but to be honest, that's not so different from normal.
As for predictions, I'm not sure about everything going into lockdown. If I'm not mistaken, they've taken those drastic steps because they didn't make enough effort to contain it in the first place resulting in many more cases.
Totally agree that the financial markets will plummet. They're plummeting now.
The long term effect will be that more people will do stuff from home resulting in more online ordering, deliveries, and remote working. Cinemas are pretty much just young people now, it's pretty uncommon to see anybody there over the age of 30. Cineplex is still open, they're just cutting capacity by half so the risk is lessened.
Even if the virus goes beyond a few months, most people will get sick of being at home and will go out again so I believe the financial shock will be short and will recover. You can look up the number of cases at Health Canada and it has fallen since the first time we kept count. It may have peaked an be on the decline but it may be premature to say that.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals.html#epi (https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals.html#epi)
First confirmed case in Peterborough news released today, though it was pretty well known a few days ago.
I think they need to shut down the drive test centres in Lindsay and Peterborough, to help stop the spread of the virus. Every weekday the Lindsay mall is full of young people that are obviously from the Toronto region, taking their driver test here, because the streets here are not crazy busy like they are in Toronto.
The biggest effect on us so far is on hygiene (especially frequent and intensive hand washing) and not going out much. We go outside a lot, but don't go to stores or people's houses any more than we have to. I do expect ultimately that most Canadians will be exposed to the virus, but hopefully the rate of serious illness won't be as taxing on our health care facilities as it has in Italy and other European countries. We're trying to do our part in minimizing the rate of spread. We are fairly well prepared for a two week quarantine should one or both of us get the virus.
We had a trip to the U.S. Southwest planned for early April that we're going to cancel as soon as the panicked airline phone calls slow down. I'm hoping that we'll be able to take that trip in the fall.
I'm worried about the effect on Canadian businesses, but not the stock market. Markets go up and down and will ultimately recover. Related to the former, I'm concerned that unemployment rates are going to rise sharply, and people (especially young people) are going to be hurt by this.
Well, if markets go down and stay down for 7 months, that increases Trump's chances of losing the election.
And the Canadian economy has taken a double whammy with the drop in oil prices. The tars sands 'oil' sells not at the prices you hear, but at the WCS Crude prices, which are at the moment under $20 a barrel. Alberta sells regular crude as well, but doesn't have unlimited supplies of that.
Alberta is really suffering, though over the prosperous years they never really prepared for this inevitable change. Diversification would have been a good idea.
Quote from: fox on March 16, 2020, 08:42:52 AM
I do expect ultimately that most Canadians will be exposed to the virus, but hopefully the rate of serious illness won't be as taxing on our health care facilities as it has in Italy and other European countries.
If most Canadians were to be exposed to the virus, that would be terrible. Unless the death rate turns out to be vastly inflated (2% now), that would mean extreme pressure on hospitals and clinics. Let's say by most, you mean 25 million. That'd be about 500,000 deaths which would be roughly tripling the current death rate. And I would assume that most people that are hospitalized won't die, so we're talking about admissions in the millions. So I hope it doesn't work out that way. Of course, maybe the higher level of exposure will lead to herd immunity thus protecting others from getting it.
Quote from: buster on March 16, 2020, 09:14:14 AM
Well, if markets go down and stay down for 7 months, that increases Trump's chances of losing the election.
Yep, having a good economy makes it easier for leaders and the governing party to maintain power. Hard to say at this point if it's going to stay down for that long.
Our Albanian neighbour runs a high end hairdressing business in his house. Everyone has cancelled until the summer. That's his only source of income.
There is some speculation that schools will be closed until summer.
The ambulance arrived 20 minutes ago for a neighbour and friend who is coughing and having trouble breathing. He has been home from the States for about a week.
The Dow had its biggest point drop in history today. (Though probably not %)
In our area the grocery stores are having trouble keeping things on the shelf, like spaghetti sauce - a neighbour said not one can or bottle on the empty shelf.
Interesting tiimes.
Update: The neighbour who was taken away in the ambulance was diagnosed with pneumonia and is on antibiotics. Odd to hear things like, 'Fortunately he has pneumonia.'
Thanks for the update, Buster.
I wrote earlier "The tars sands 'oil' sells not at the prices you hear, but at the WCS Crude prices, which are at the moment under $20 a barrel."
At the moment, WCS is selling for $15.05 per barrel on futures markets. The wine I buy costs close to this, and I certainly don't get a barrel of it.
Buster @ Information Central
I hope your friend recovers, Buster. But it is odd that pneumonia would be considered better than COVID-19. From what I understand, and I may be wrong, COVID-19 can quickly lead to pneumonia and that's what kills people.
Anyway, as far as changing my daily life, I'm trying to cut back to going out only one day a week and then just to get groceries for ourselves and my brother, Rob, who can't get out because of a bad leg and broken ribs. I wasn't worried about transit until I saw the recommendation not to take it. The city added extra buses on the busiest routes to separate people as many of the busy routes fill up the buses. But still, I'm concerned so just avoiding taking it altogether. Luckily, I have a friend who insists that if I need to get groceries or run necessary errands that I contact her for a ride. I plan to do so next week for groceries. I'm lucky to have her.
I just remembered that I have two refills of meds to pick up. I guess I'll be out again tomorrow or the next day. Not sure my drugstore is delivering. I've heard of at least one that stopped.
Also, while we have toilet paper until the end of the month, people are definitely hoarding it and the two grocery stores I've been to the last few days have been sold out. I'm kind of worried about what to do at the end of the month if we can't find any. Hoping that the manufacturers will be stepping up production very soon and the government will go after the hoarders. My guess is that the hoarders are going to sell it online for vastly inflated prices. Sanitizer is gone, too, and cheap canned food like beans, pasta and soup are rapidly diminishing which people with low incomes like us need to get through each month. I expect we'll get by but it's terribly stressful worrying about getting the food you can afford and basic hygiene products you need.
Unlike some of my friends, we have enough income to get by with ODSP. People who aren't sick aren't going to get sick pay even when they're sent home for a few weeks and many workplaces don't even offer that but at least there's EI. One of my friends was sent home, no sick pay and another friend was "laid off" presumably so he could apply for EI, but he's not sure he has enough hours.
It looks like the government will be stepping up to offer benefits for those employees forced to go home, childcare at home, money for businesses for lost income and increased GST credit payments for people like us. So much for balancing the budget for the next couple of years until we have a vaccine. If they don't want the economy to completely collapse, they're going to have to step up in a big way.
Evidently, SARS killed more people as a percentage (about 10%) but it didn't spread that fast. COVID-19 spreads like wildfire. One medical officer said the province isn't doing enough with the ban on meetings larger than 50 people saying that one person in that room with COVID-19 could infect 15-35 others.
Regarding oil prices, I can't help but ask, Buster, do you have oil stocks? :)
Looks like SARS lasted about four months (https://www.cdc.gov/about/history/sars/timeline.htm) before it was contained, but six from the first case reported.
And they've been saying that SARS is the closest coronavirus that resembles COVID-19. But back then, especially in Canada, we basically didn't know what we were doing, it wasn't clear who was in charge, lack of communication between governments, lack of knowledge for healthcare workers of how to isolate patients or even recognize the illness before it became widespread. We should have been practising social distancing back then, but do you remember anything about that being recommended by the government? I don't.
So I'm thinking the worse result is that it could be four months before it's contained. But who knows? SARS mutated and became more severe but less able to spread. We still had it around for another two years globally before it was reported that there were no new cases.
Some news articles say we're getting ahead of COVID-19, some say we're too late and still unprepared. I guess we'll see.
Jason asked, "Regarding oil prices, I can't help but ask, Buster, do you have oil stocks? :)"
Probably, but that's not my concern. Alberta is already struggling, and oil is a huge part of the Canadian economy. My 2 million dollar loss wont hurt me much.
You know, Kimchi and Vodka solve most of our problems here. :) Panic buying is happening in Mississauga, too. Spaghetti, sauce, sugar, flour, spam, water, and toilet paper were all gone in local supermarket. I got 5 years supply of toilet paper, so no worry for me.
Any bids for some of Williams toilet paper? :-)
Just out of interest - WCI oil is selling for $9.19 a barrel! Astonishing. Same as 4 cans of British Ale.
And we have 2 friends who don't seem to be able to get out of Portugal, and are living in an almost empty resort.
Quote from: William on March 17, 2020, 10:20:17 PM
You know, Kimchi and Vodka solve most of our problems here. :) Panic buying is happening in Mississauga, too. Spaghetti, sauce, sugar, flour, spam, water, and toilet paper were all gone in local supermarket. I got 5 years supply of toilet paper, so no worry for me.
5 years supply? How? Have you been squirreling it away over the years? And where do you store it?
Quote from: buster on March 18, 2020, 11:31:25 AM
And we have 2 friends who don't seem to be able to get out of Portugal, and are living in an almost empty resort.
I thought I saw the government offering Canadians abroad up to $5000 to come home. But I guess the number of available flights has probably dropped sharply. Saw at least one airline that has cancelled all of their flights.
I think that the offer is just in the form of a loan, but I'm not sure.
Some pretty good news today. The number of infected people in Peterborough, the county and the two closest reserves is only 2. Number tested negative is 68, and 41 additional cases are under investigation. Locally, no one has died or has been hospitalized for Covid-19 - yet. An article in the Examiner suggested that we are still going to see an exponential rise in cases locally.
Quote from: fox on March 18, 2020, 04:17:37 PM
I think that the offer is just in the form of a loan, but I'm not sure.
You're likely correct in that summation.
QuoteSome pretty good news today. The number of infected people in Peterborough, the county and the two closest reserves is only 2. Number tested negative is 68, and 41 additional cases are under investigation. Locally, no one has died or has been hospitalized for Covid-19 - yet. An article in the Examiner suggested that we are still going to see an exponential rise in cases locally.
I'm not sure that's good news. It depends on how many others those 2 people came into contact with. But from what I'm reading the second person was a close contact of the first. Weren't you in the US recently, Fox? ;-)
If anybody was hospitalized or died on the basis of only two cases, we'd be in big trouble. It looks like the death rate based on a sample of 260 cases is between 3 and 4 percent and 11% were hospitalized. So we'd have to have 10 people with the illness before we saw a hospitalization and 25 people before we saw a death if we're the average. I think we have a higher than average senior population though so it's likely we'll see both occurring before reaching those numbers.
The provincial government recommended not to use transit unless absolutely necessary so I'm avoiding it either getting a ride with a friend who offered for necessary trips or I'm walking. On the bright side, it will make me exercise more. :)
Here's some good news. For the first time since COVID-19 surfaced, China is reporting no new cases in Wuhan and the surrounding province. The 34 cases they did have the day before were imported form abroad. Looks like China is an importer of it now. Of course, China took even more drastic measures than the West has taken, basically putting the city in lock down.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/wuhan-reports-no-new-virus-cases-offering-hope-to-world-1.4859202 (https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/wuhan-reports-no-new-virus-cases-offering-hope-to-world-1.4859202)
My daughter received this from a friend:
"Started home-schooling today, 2 kids suspended for fighting and I may be fired for drinking on the job."
Quote from: buster on March 19, 2020, 09:21:08 AM
My daughter received this from a friend:
"Started home-schooling today, 2 kids suspended for fighting and I may be fired for drinking on the job."
I saw that on Facebook, except that it said at the end that the teacher may be fired for drinking on the job. :D
Reading BBC news and discovered that Vera Lynn is still alive and 103, and she spoke to the nation and asked them to find some joy somehow in these difficult times. For those who don't know who she is, she was British and performed during the Second World War. She had two songs that spread around the free world and were heard often on the radio. Every time these played on the radio, we all listened intently. The most famous came out in 1942, and the broadcasts continued until I was at least 7. My dad was away for 5 or 6 years, and we rented half of our little house to help pay costs. Tough times.
The songs were 'The White Cliffs of Dover' and 'We'll Meet Again'. No need to listen to all the way through, but the originals are on YouTube.
So far we have no popular songs to rally around during these times when, for example, an Italian is dying on average, every 2 and 1/2 minutes from the disease.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAaxkAgVkHQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsM_VmN6ytk
Another one for Vera Lynn, done in 1995:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zOpFyDy5CRo
Thanks Mike. In 1995 she would have been 78 years old. And she still had an amazing voice, and great stage presence.
I believe I mentioned our two neighbours who had returned from Carolina and developed unpleasant symptons. He went to emerg in an ambulance. It seemed it was 'only' pneumonia Their tests have been processed it has been confirmed that they do not have covid-19. Good news for Cabot St.
Still only 5 cases in Peterborough area, with no hospitalizations and no deaths. The two most recent additions travelled in. I know there will be plenty more, but either the social distancing is working or Peterborough is small enough to not get an influx from elsewhere.
One of the unforeseen problems with Trump's plan to start of the workforce again, and let the chips fall where they might, is the effect this will have on younger people. If the hospitals are overrun with patients, and the staff too small to handle everything, and little Billy falls off his bike and seriously injures himself, and someone has a bowel blockage, and there is a 3 way car crash, what do all the people do? Wait til a new hospital is built, and new nurses and doctors are trained?
I think economic pain and its problems is better than for sure problems with a pandemic.
Vs.
Companies with no income for 4 months. So, massive layoffs and bailouts. High taxes to pay for these costs. Declining GDP, so less tax. More costs. More high taxes. Round and round we go. Trump got the direction right. We have to keep the economic engine running, because we need the money that will generate. I don't see people who propose 4 months lockdown to voluntarily forgo their pays for 4 months.
The 'back to work' can be done, but not Trump's way. I understand completely what you're saying.
My daughter's Maid of Honour from years back has a husband who is working in Singapore until December. My daughter and her friend are in touch every day. However, Singapore has flattened the curve, anyone with the slightest symptoms is tested, and EVERY time he goes into a building, his temperature is taken.
The White House from the beginning should have been concentrating on test kits, recruiting hospital staff, respirators, new recovery rooms, and social distancing. The first battle is to protect the hospital system. Once that beachhead is secured, we move to limiting the movements of the enemy, and then finally to allowing limited and protected movement moving forward.
We should not send under equipped millions rushing into the gunfire with the battle yell 'Save Our Economy!' , when most know that this modern 'exchange of goods and services' is highly skewed in favour of a small percentage of us.
Edit; Just read this in the free Corona virus section of the Globe and Mail. Powell suggests we control the virus first, then get back to work. Interesting reading:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/us-business/article-feds-powell-says-us-may-be-in-recession-control-of-virus-to/
Quote from: buster on March 26, 2020, 09:44:23 AM
.... Just read this in the free Corona virus section of the Globe and Mail. Powell suggests we control the virus first, then get back to work. Interesting reading:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/international-business/us-business/article-feds-powell-says-us-may-be-in-recession-control-of-virus-to/
Interesting read and rational thinking from the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board. I hope that cooler heads like him will prevail in the U.S., where already more than 1,000 people have died from the virus.
Two bits of news.
-Our friends trapped in Portugal, where they were the only people in the resort, got home very late Saturday evening. They had been going to a local store and buying enough food to cooks meals themselves. All our friends are back now, some with 'interesting' adventures on the way.
-The price of western crude is getting ready to slide under $4 a barrel. Some exotic coffees cost more than than, for one cup.
By the way, I don't think I have heard a single person anywhere say that it will be a four month lock down. The government is just, smartly, preparing for that if necessary. It could be weeks or it could be months. But when the Chair of the US Federal Reserve is saying we need to take strong measures to fight this first, then worry about the economy, that should tell you something, William. He also said that the government can afford it and the Reserve is prepared to lend more to the government, much more than what is being spent.
The argument that it will cause higher taxes with less taxes coming in and a downward spiral is to ignore that doing the opposite will cause huge human strife and economic strife. The US is looking at 100-200K deaths, not just illness, but death. And millions more that will be infected, many of them very sick. What kind of economic damage will that cause? Trump is, as he usually is, out of his mind and beyond his depth. And even now, is finally recognizing, that they're not going to back to normal by Easter.
Turns out transit, or at least the buses I took today had so few people that social distancing was easy. When I arrived at the station, there couldn't have been more than a dozen people there and most buses were in. Normally it's packed and most times of the day other than the evening. I heard through my bus driver friend, who also heads up the local ATU, that most buses have very light loads other than George and Lansdowne because those go to the college and university and some students couldn't go home so they're still in the dorms.
No Frills had very few people in it earlier tonight and I got through the socially-distanced line (markers and all) quite quickly. And even managed to pick up a couple of packages of toilet paper. Score!
Btw, William, you never answered my question about how you came across so much toilet paper. If you were hoarding, the next time I see you, I'm going to bite your leg, even if I have COVID-19. ;-) I've had to beg, borrow and steal from friends to get it until now.
By the end of this week, it will have been at least 14 days since the social distancing/stay at home regime has been in effect and I would therefore expect to see a dramatic dropoff in the number of new Covid cases being reported daily, in Ontario.
From what I have read about the Covid virus, it takes about 14 days before anyone who has the virus, whether they exhibit symptoms or not, to stop shedding the virus.
If there is not a dropoff in new Covid cases reported, by the end of this week in Ontario, then I expect the large numbers of people getting this plaque, is going to last for months and not just weeks.
That drop off in new cases is starting to occur in Quebec. And the articles I've seen suggest that the next week will tell if the measures are working.
That doesn't mean the virus will be halted and we can we ease up on the measures we're taking. If we did so, the numbers could shoot back up again. We need to diminish not just the new cases but the total numbers and that will take time. I think you're looking at month before restrictions begin to be lifted and it will be a slow process so they can watch the numbers after each week.
And then we'll get it again in the Fall, likely early Fall and in the Spring again before we have a vaccine. Even the experts are divided on whether the next wave will ease up or be worse.
But as the Royal Canadian Air Farce once said on a best of audio collection, "We're finally beginning to see a light at the end of the mind shaft."
We'll certainly see an end to it before the US does thanks to Trump's dilly-dallying and many Americans in general, just not taking it seriously. The US is the new epicenter for the virus globally.
" I would therefore expect to see a dramatic drop-off in the number of new Covid cases being reported in Ontario."
I suspect it will he marginal if at all. As we improve testing, we will find more cases than we did before. As well, two weeks may not be enough. If we can have it and not be aware for a number of days, there was some spread during the first part of the 2 weeks. People are still working to keep the country going and could have spread it at work before the symptoms showed. We have an older woman who lives on our street, and her son lives with her. He is still going out to work. Pizzas are being made. Police are out and about and so on.
But I tend to be pessimistic. I suspect it is going to be awhile before the curve bends much. Hope I'm not correct.
I'm guessing a week at least from now to see measurable change. Hope you're right Bill and I'm wrong.
Well, apparently there is about a 5 day backlog/wait for test results to be processed in Ontario, right now. So I would therefore modify my estimate to about 19 days from now and then there should be a noticeable drop off in reported covid cases. :-)
I think that is one of the reasons they are giving for the current daily jump in reported cases, is due to the backlog in testing is gradually being reduced and therefore it appears that the reported cases of virus look to be increasing daily, but they probably are not.
Just to note, Buster, I believe it was the Chief medical officer for Canada (not sure if that's her position) that said we will know in about a week's time if social distancing is working by the number of new cases. My guess is that researchers can account for confounding variables like new cases springing up just because of increased testing.
I don't think that means the measures will be eased up for some time to come since doing so would risk losing the progress we've made. And when the total numbers do eventually start to come down, the entire pandemic will actually last longer as a result of social distancing and self-isolation. A by-product of flattening the curve means the cases, while lesser, are going to be spread out. From what I understand, the point of these measures is to slow the number of new cases so they're not all occurring at the same time like what happened in Italy.
One thing I have noticed is that the death rate seems to be much less here than in other places around the world. It looks to be hovering about 1% when comparing present cases with deaths. Of course, that's not a perfect yardstick since the total cases includes new and old cases and deaths are more likely due to older detected cases. By older, I mean, even days ago.
It's strange to see how empty the streets of Toronto look from pics I've seen on the CBC. The look reminds me of apocalypse movies, coincidentally, because most of the population has died off due to some illness, usually having to do with zombies.
I was walking to the grocery store this morning and passed a house where the young woman was on the porch outside, screaming at her spouse/whatever about something she apparently didn't like that he was doing.
I think the divorce courts are going to get backed up with cases, with this stay at home policy, in effect. :-(
Quote from: ssfc72 on April 01, 2020, 01:32:23 PM
I was walking to the grocery store this morning and passed a house where the young woman was on the porch outside, screaming at her spouse/whatever about something she apparently didn't like that he was doing.
I think the divorce courts are going to get backed up with cases, with this stay at home policy, in effect. :-(
I shouldn't laugh but I did at this. I think you're right. But people who get divorced because they can't handle being around each other for extended periods probably shouldn't be married to each other. Although I guess anyone can drive you crazy if you see them too much. :D
Things are getting a bit testy at our house.
Marilyn said I was being immature. I told her to get out of my fort!
Quote from: buster on April 02, 2020, 12:06:46 PM
Things are getting a bit testy at our house.
Marilyn said I was being immature. I told her to get out of my fort!
Tree fort or the kind you make from blankets and furniture? Now I want to make a fort.
Here is a YouTube video from the "Itchy Boots" Dutch motorcycle girl, stuck in Peru and getting nervous about being a foreigner in Peru, during a Covid-19 lockdown. The locals in the small community are starting to look at the lone European in their town and feeling she might be bringing the virus to their town.
Now she is trying to find a way to get back to Holland, with the motorbike.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5a76O_uAQ4
I don't really blame them. I understand that Europe was a lot further along than they were. How long has she been there?
She started out from Britain in Oct 2019.
She couldn't have foreseen the pandemic. It's like Monty Python's sketch where you hear, "Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!"
But our normally unprepared societies have trouble enough with natural disasters each year traditionally. This year should be no different except we have a pandemic to contend with at the same time.
So what happens when we have the usual hurricanes, floods, fires, earthquakes, and tornadoes? Which hospitals do we send the injured to? How do we get help from other countries?
Like, do I sound pessimistic? How about some optimistic input to make me feel better?
Quote from: buster on April 04, 2020, 09:14:15 AM
Like, do I sound pessimistic? How about some optimistic input to make me feel better?
How about this: we've gotten through far worst events lasting much longer and taking a greater toll in life and property? Sure, we limp along for a bit and I'm not making light of the lives that will be lost, but we will come out of it. The greatest threat to our extinction isn't this. It's the one we've been pretty much ignoring for four decades.
" but we will come out of it"
Yea, but what about 80 year old Buster? Surprisingly, I am not a selfless individual, willing to sacrifice myself for the human race. Turtles and forests maybe, but not humans. They have been a pain in the ass for the rest of the natural world for eons.
One human I do like though is Buster. We should do our best to keep him going so he can enjoy each day, settling into the couch after dinner, turning on the TV, and seeing the fresh disasters that have just occurred over the last 24 hours.
You haven't lost your way with words, Buster. I hope you're staying home and getting other people to do porch drops. Then you'll be fine. I'm forced to do that right now so no whining, at least not. You can whine in 11 days when I'm free again.
Quote from: Jason Wallwork on April 04, 2020, 11:57:35 AM
....I'm forced to do that right now so no whining, at least not. You can whine in 11 days when I'm free again.
Are you on quarantine?
Quote from: fox on April 04, 2020, 03:14:52 PM
Are you on quarantine?
The official term is self-isolation but yes, that's pretty much it. Have to stay home for the next 11 days because the symptoms of a cold, which is likely what I have, are very similar to COVID. If anybody shows those symptoms, stay home. Not just stay home and still get groceries. Stay home. Period.
I have seen in Lindsay, a number of people wearing those automotive painting type masks, with the 2 round filters, one on each side of the mask. Looks very weird and reminds me of the old 50's & 60's science fiction movies.
That is weird. And I doubt that those masks provide much protection against the virus but they do fit better, I think.
I"m working on perceiving those that wear non-medical grade masks as willing to sacrifice their own wellbeing on my behalf, whether by risking social aversion or self contamination . Puts a light on it that works for my desired worldview especially if it's prevalence increases .
here's a link to an TVO Agenda show that talks about the public's responses to different messaging styles delivered by public figures about COV-19 . It's by an AI service, that has a good track record for predicting election results.
https://www.tvo.org/video/erin-kelly-polly-and-the-pandemic (https://www.tvo.org/video/erin-kelly-polly-and-the-pandemic)
Admin message: I just fixed the link for you so it works.
If you wear a mask that isn't an N95 type (i.e. surgical mask), it's not very effective at preventing you from getting COVID-19, but it can be very effective to prevent you from giving it to someone else if you have it or suspect you have it. It doesn't increase your risk unless you have contaminated your hands and touch your face more because you're trying to adjust it. I guess in that way, it might not be a good idea to wear them which is why they're haven't be recommended and they might give people a false sense of security.
For example, I'm self-isolating because of a cold, or quarantining myself as Fox put it, for 8 more days. When I go outside, briefly, to either pick up the mail or a porch drop, I wear a mask when I go out. So that way if I have COVID-19, I won't give it to a neighbour should I run into them in the hallway or they're coming in at the same time. At all times I try to maintain the 2 m distance but the mask will at leave prevent them from getting sick if we get closer. I also have worn them around my wife but she got annoyed by it and wanted me to take it off. I might start wearing them in public because I have some that a friend dropped off and it offers a little protection, i.e. better than zero. I wouldn't buy any myself because I don't know if healthcare workers have enough. They definitely don't have enough N95 masks and they need them when treating COVID patients in the ICU.
There is at least one animal at the Bronx Zoo who got covid 19 - a tiger. If it spreads too much to the natural world, and it can jump back to humans, we'll have some interesting speculation on TV each night.
Sweden is using an entirely different approach to handling the Pandemic, and it mirrors some things that William espoused early on in the thread. Sweden only isolates the elderly and frail, and lets many social activities continue, especial for youngsters. A very interesting article arguing on behalf of Sweden. Of course at the end (?) of this we can tally up the wins and losses and declare a winner.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/
Quote from: buster on April 08, 2020, 03:27:59 PM
There is at least one animal at the Bronx Zoo who got covid 19 - a tiger. If it spreads too much to the natural world, and it can jump back to humans, we'll have some interesting speculation on TV each night.
The CVMA (Canadian Veterinary Medical Association) is recommending people with COVID symptoms who are self-isolating not to touch their animals, keep a distance if they can and let others take care of them. There is evidence that pets can get it. But not the other way, at least not yet.
Sooo, the US has enough covid testing kits to test a tiger, but not enough test kits to test all their citizens?? Hmmm.
Quote from: buster on April 08, 2020, 03:27:59 PM
There is at least one animal at the Bronx Zoo who got covid 19 - a tiger. If it spreads too much to the natural world, and it can jump back to humans, we'll have some interesting speculation on TV each night.
We should keep in mind that humans are a dime a dozen. Tigers are rare. The planet has been turned into a human farm. I suspect this quote from 2015 will surprise most:
"Well if you’re like me, then you would probably be pretty blown away by the idea that humans alone outweigh all the remaining terrestrial mammals on the planet by about seven times!"
And that includes elephants. Here's an article that is an easy read, and can even be skimmed to get the full impact.
http://www.kalaharilionresearch.org/2015/01/16/human-vs-livestock-vs-wild-mammal-biomass-earth/
Quote from: ssfc72 on April 09, 2020, 02:31:05 AM
Sooo, the US has enough covid testing kits to test a tiger, but not enough test kits to test all their citizens?? Hmmm.
They had enough test kits do test Trump and Pence. Personally, I prefer the tiger.
"South Korean officials on Friday reported that 91 patients thought cleared of the new coronavirus had tested positive again."
Not necessarily a game changer, but it may make the end game a little more complex than we thought it would be.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066
And as if this isn't enough, we get this - "New Ebola case confirmed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo". Suspect this wont amount to too much, but nature seems to be going all out to get us.
https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/10-04-2020-new-ebola-case-confirmed-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo
God, if people can be re-infected with COVID-19, we're fucked. But the article raises more questions than answers.
QuoteFalse test results could also be at fault, other experts said, or remnants of the virus could still be in patients' systems but not be infectious or of danger to the host or others.
Um, maybe triple-check the test results *before* reporting it? It's kind of important.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52196815
A New York, paramedics diary. A very good article about a paramedic's day during the start of the Covid emergency in New York city.
Thanks Bill. Not a happy tale, but interesting. Think I saw it was a BBC article,which was a surprise.
I find that the BBC has the best unbiased (i.e. non-hysterical) coverage of US news. Their tech articles need some help, though.
We have to find things to do while in isolation, so just want to say I'm not wasting my time. Buster is now a -
Spider Solitaire 2 Suits Hard GRANDMASTER 4, LEVEL 141 !!!
So China may have to take some blame. If they did make it more difficult, this should be pointed out to them. But blaming everything on them avoids the issues, and it lets people hide our own flaws and get angry at others.
Getting angry at the Chinese ignores many things - we should have been prepared for this long, long ago; Trump's delay, and our own have increased the damage; our old folks' care facilities have been in trouble for years and we just avoided the problem; the hospital system in the States is not designed for this kind of fight and coordination; some of our citizens ignored social distancing far too long..... add some more if you think about some.
Maybe the Chinese just wanted to "Make China Great Again!" and used a "China First!" policy. :) None of that matters at the moment. We have a battle to win.
But the blame is going to fill the media soon, as if this does anything to help us fight covid-19.
Scanning the news briefly today and I read little about China so I guess we'll see. But if the media does start on this course, it'll be just because their 'greatest hits' album is running out of songs. I did see that the US is trying to find out if it came from a Wuhan lab. I didn't know it was the government's job to investigate conspiracy theories. But of course, it's led by Donald Trump who can never find a problem he can't blame on somebody else. If you watch, Trump takes his lead from Fox News. They say it, Trump parrots it. I'm not sure if he put the idea to him the night before and they're just coordinating or he's just too much of an idiot to come up with his own ideas. A 'stable genius' who isn't stable and certainly not a genius.
But I agree, there's no point in casting blame now. There'll be plenty of time to do that later.
Btw, the bit about old age homes. I totally agree that there have been problems in them for years. But I just have to mention that the Ontario NDP was railing about the state of our LTC homes for years and nobody seemed to care much. Look at a single regulation they have and you know there's a problem - residents must be bathed a minimum of once a week. Once a week! Sure, I can get by with bathing only once a week but seniors should get better than that. I imagine that governments will make the usual noise about how important it is to up the standards and once this settles down go back to what they've always done, turn a blind eye to the conditions in LTC homes. Private homes are just warehousing people and non-profit homes don't get enough money. Along with Pharmacare, LTCs should be a included under Medicare.
I has got to be tough for the nurses and support workers at the hospitals and nursing homes, to do their normal work duties and have to wear all the protective PPE gear. Wearing this extra gear would be making their physical chores, very hot for them to do.
I think the provincial government needs spend some money, right now, to bring in additional temporary support staff, during this COVID event, to help ease the work load of the care givers, who are having to wear this hot PPE gear.
It's interesting that a lot of staff in LTC homes are part-time or temporary workers. You can tell this because the government had to make an order to require staff to work at only one home at a time for the length of the crisis. These workers deserve full-time if they want it and higher income. There are some nurses but most of the LTCs are staffed by personal support workers (PSWs).
My wife was a PSW and she had similar duties except that she went to people's homes to keep them from having to go to an LTC. She had no job security and barely made better than minimum wage. The organization she worked for was private. They are paid very little for what they do while nurses are paid very well for doing similar jobs. Nurses have more training especially in diagnosis and triage but they both have to do duties that nobody wants to do like bathing, changing diapers, cleaning up accidents, rotating patients, managing and bandaging bed sores, emptying commodes, stuff that would make most of us vomit. Then add seasonal flu and pandemics like this and they reach the breaking point. What has scared a lot of staff at these homes is that they don't even have PPE gear or they have to constantly reuse the gear that is meant to be tossed. It's little wonder that COVID-19 has spread in these homes. They weren't equipped. The hospitals weren't originally either with rationing of gear but they had next to nothing.
You're right that it's hot, even the most basic of gear, the face masks. When I was able to go out a few days ago for the first time in a couple of weeks, I wore a mask, not for myself but to protect other people, just in case. I was only out a couple of hours but I couldn't wear a mask the whole time and that was just a surgical mask and not a very good one at that. I definitely wouldn't argue against the province spending more to hire temporary staff and they need to supplement their existing pay. I believe that Quebec has mandated $2 more per hour in pay. They're also losing a lot of staff who have either contracted COVID-19 themselves or going home because they're afraid of getting it because there isn't enough protective gear.
Quote from: Jason Wallwork on April 18, 2020, 04:49:54 AM
....
They are paid very little for what they do while nurses are paid very well for doing similar jobs. Nurses have more training especially in diagnosis and triage but they both have to do duties that nobody wants to do like bathing, changing diapers, cleaning up accidents, rotating patients, managing and bandaging bed sores, emptying commodes, stuff that would make most of us vomit.
....
Actually, not all PSWs do these "nasty" things. My sister is a part-time PSW in a home in the Minneapolis area. She didn't do any of these things. She took seniors on walks, helped them with meals and did some shopping with them. More like a companion; no bathing, diapers, etc. I don't know if there are equivalent PSWs in Canada; maybe they are not called PSWs. My sister isn't doing that right now. Her job was suspended who Covid-19 hit. She thinks that the seniors she looked after are suffering as a result. They were rarely visited by family members, who often didn't live in the area, so the PSW was as much of a friend as a helper.
I am also impressed at the way the stores that are open, are implementing procedures to minimise the spread of the COVID virus, while in the store.
Someone has been very clever to come up with the idea to mark the floor surface at 6 ft intervals to help people keep 6 ft apart, the use of arrows on the floor to help create on way traffic in the aisle and the rigorous cleaning with disinfectant of the store doors and the checkout conveyor belt and credit card terminal numbered buttons, the limiting of the number of people in the store that are shopping, etc.
I find them quite inventive, too. But I think the procedures were suggestions from the Ministry. There are guidelines posed on their webpages for COVID-19. Posters, too. Even ones that residents can put on their doors or windows to show support to healthcare workers. That's why multiple stores have almost identical procedures. Some have just been slow to bring them in so it hasn't happened altogether, at least not in Peterborough. Have you just been in stores in Lindsay or Peterborough, too? I've only been in a couple so far but seen those same things.
What do you mean by credit card terminal numbered buttons? The debit pads I've seen look the same to me. So glad we have tap, btw.
The Main Ingredient does not allow anyone into the store. This is where I get flour and yeast for breadmaking. You simply email in your order, and wait for them to call. You are met outside the front door. You pay (or you could have prepaid on line) with a credit card or debit card, and walk away with your goodies.
Very nice system.
The terminal that you stick your credit card into, and enter your PIN, to pay for your purchase.
Quote from: Jason Wallwork on April 18, 2020, 08:41:07 AM
What do you mean by credit card terminal numbered buttons? The debit pads I've seen look the same to me. So glad we have tap, btw.
Quote from: ssfc72 on April 18, 2020, 05:48:42 PM
The terminal that you stick your credit card into, and enter your PIN, to pay for your purchase.
I know what you were referring to but didn't understand how it had changed.
Quote from: buster on April 18, 2020, 11:00:43 AM
The Main Ingredient does not allow anyone into the store. This is where I get flour and yeast for breadmaking. You simply email in your order, and wait for them to call. You are met outside the front door. You pay (or you could have prepaid on line) with a credit card or debit card, and walk away with your goodies.
My friend Pauline works there. She was telling me about the system. The Bulk Barn near where I live has a system where they only have one person in the store at a time and a staff member goes around putting whatever you want into bags but stays six feet away. Not sure if you can pay in advance.
Do you know that you can get your groceries online, Buster? You can order them, pay for them and then pick them up or have them delivered. Superstore does it and No Frills too although they might just be pickups. You have to do it well in advance, about 10 days lately.
If you're ever in urgent need of something, let me know, too. I don't mind grabbing any essentials you need between regular shops. I've had people help me while I was in self-isolation and even outside it so I like to pay it forward. And I like you - I'd hate for you to get it.
"You have to do it well in advance, about 10 days lately."
Apparently you can get same day or next with Sobeys in the north end. $15.
We still shop. The worst that can happen is that it will kill me.
Quote from: buster on April 18, 2020, 10:09:14 PM
"You have to do it well in advance, about 10 days lately."
Apparently you can get same day or next with Sobeys in the north end. $15.
We still shop. The worst that can happen is that it will kill me.
Have you checked it recently though? I started getting my groceries via pickup right when the recommendations to avoid crowds and social distancing kicked in, before the state of emergency was declared. Then, I only had to do it a couple of days in advance. Now all the slots fill up fast. But charging $15 might put a lot of people off of ordering.
I'd rather not you die from it. And there are many ways to die, gasping for breath while our lungs fill with mucus is not one of them I'd entertain. It'd be like drowning. I've contemplated suicide many times over the years, but never that way.
Stay safe. Get grandchildren, friends or youngish neighbours to get you stuff. It's not just you. If you get sick with it, you'll be putting other people at risk before you end up in the hospital. I don't want to tell you how to live your life but I wouldn't like to see you gone. So as a friend, I urge you to self-isolate. Now I'll shut up about it. :)
Quote from: fox on April 18, 2020, 07:34:10 AM
Actually, not all PSWs do these "nasty" things. My sister is a part-time PSW in a home in the Minneapolis area. She didn't do any of these things. She took seniors on walks, helped them with meals and did some shopping with them. More like a companion; no bathing, diapers, etc. I don't know if there are equivalent PSWs in Canada; maybe they are not called PSWs. My sister isn't doing that right now. Her job was suspended who Covid-19 hit. She thinks that the seniors she looked after are suffering as a result. They were rarely visited by family members, who often didn't live in the area, so the PSW was as much of a friend as a helper.
Well, whether they do those things or not depends, I believe, on the homes they go to or the type of firm they work for that is sending them out (i.e. some might specialize in specific services). My wife also took them shopping, made meals, watched tv with them and so on. Are you sure it's a PSW, and yes, it's a Canadian term. Personal Support Worker. Their duties can vary widely and they might be called different things. There are college certificates for becoming a PSW but it's not required. There' also called health care aides, long term care aides, nurse aides personal care aides and so on. Let me just say she's one of the lucky ones that she doesn't have to do that. Or maybe she just has chosen not to do those duties and somebody else does. It all depends on the clients you serve. My wife served the ones that had the most needs, they didn't go out shopping.
http://www.onip.ca/personal-support-worker/ (http://www.onip.ca/personal-support-worker/)
My wife started helping to take care of her mom from a very young age who was diagnosed with rapid onset MS, which is possibly not the exact term. But she started getting it very young (about 24) and it progressed very quickly to the point she couldn't talk intelligibly. At the age of 8, the family doctor told Nora that she was going 'to have to grow up now' to help her mom. Her mom ended up in a wheelchair and she had to take care of everything for her, and then her grandfather. By 18, she couldn't do it anymore and her mom went into a hospital for LTC and her grandmother who was quite sick when into the hospital where she died. My wife had to 'pull the plug', as it were. Because of her experiences, she found it easy to become a PSW and do the job because she had done it most of her life for them. They called her a health care aide but it was the same thing as a PSW generally.
Quote from: ssfc72 on April 18, 2020, 01:45:52 AM
I has got to be tough for the nurses and support workers at the hospitals and nursing homes, to do their normal work duties and have to wear all the protective PPE gear. Wearing this extra gear would be making their physical chores, very hot for them to do.
I think the provincial government needs spend some money, right now, to bring in additional temporary support staff, during this COVID event, to help ease the work load of the care givers, who are having to wear this hot PPE gear.
They must have read your post, ssfc. :)
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/04/18/team-of-toronto-doctors-and-nurses-fill-in-for-personal-support-staff-at-nursing-homes-hit-by-covid-19-outbreak.html (https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/04/18/team-of-toronto-doctors-and-nurses-fill-in-for-personal-support-staff-at-nursing-homes-hit-by-covid-19-outbreak.html)
The 'last cruise ship on Earth' finally comes home
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52350262
A nice article on the MSC Magnifica's sailing, before and during the evolving COVID virus.
Quote from: ssfc72 on April 20, 2020, 09:03:46 AM
The 'last cruise ship on Earth' finally comes home
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52350262 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52350262)
A nice article on the MSC Magnifica's sailing, before and during the evolving COVID virus.
Great read! Thanks for sharing. The last part was a bit ominous and was something I've been thinking about for awhile. With this wave still doing and likely 3-4 waves before the vaccine, cruise ships will likely be put on hiatus for a more than a year. Will the industry recover when it's over? And not just because many cruise companies will likely go out of business but because of all the bad press and the from what we now know, the elevated risk. If you didn't have any passengers with COVID originally embark the ship and they didn't pick up while going ashore, the being on a cruise ship would be the safest place for you. But just one case with the close quarters on cruise ships and it can spread quickly before they know what's hit them, as we've seen. Passengers that were quarantined on-board with those those sick will not refer friends to cruises and those seeing the stories in the media may never come back.
It's one thing we really haven't given a large amount of thought to here. It's not just businesses closing their doors or going bankrupt. It's that it will take months to years for those types of businesses to start up again and people will get used to doing without them. And they'll be wary of going to them. I believe that 2020-21 will be a turning point in how people spend their recreational time.
You'll see a lot more people being like Fox and Buster and going on hikes or other more solitary adventures than going on trips on airplanes and cruises and even conventions, cinema, opera, plays and so on. Anywhere that people would be grouping, long after the restrictions have eased, will decline. This virus will change the psyche of people that went through it. It's certainly not anywhere near as tough but it may take until the next generation before 'normality' as the PM put it, returns. Parents will be telling their kids too young to remember or yet unborn about the pandemic that took the world by storm and how they couldn't go out to the show, to the bar for a drink, or even just visit a group of friends because of it.
I know that, personally, and maybe I'm just different than most, will never look at washing my hands or touching things or getting in groups of people ever the same way again. I was never one for going out but I did go out to the movies once or twice a year and used to go to computer conventions. I may not do those things again or if I do, there will be a tiny part of me thinking about the potential hidden enemy on surfaces or in the cough or sneezes of people around me. Our society just got a lot more precarious.
On the plus side, maybe people will finally release that we're not invincible that lives are important and we will build a global and local community in ways different than before, online mainly. And we will recognize, perhaps, the dangers of climate change and that we need to do something about it because we're not invincible and neither are our children or grandchildren or the friends with children or our nephews or nieces. We may just solve climate change but less people boarding planes, cruise ships and travelling even by car to other countries or just outside our counties. And whole industries will change as a result. We may not need oil as much anymore and industries providing it will no longer exist or be on the decline. Alternative energy sources could become viable and even sought after. Call me an optimist but with every crisis, there is opportunity. And I hope it's an opportunity to change. Because pandemics won't go away, there will be more of them as the planet gets warmer and as populations increase.
Texas is a weird place. Once we've settled this, the article about Texas opening for business wont seem so strange. And the quote that there are some things more important than living might not surprise you.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/texas-dan-patrick-coronavirus-economy-170723539.html