Anybody else following the Democratic primaries at all? I'm not following it closely and until recently, not at all, but then Bernie Sanders starting doing well. Now it looks like the Democrats are going to end up with a middle-of-the-road candidate in Biden and lose again.
I'm following these primaries. Having all the other candidates drop out (except Elizabeth Warren and Tuitsi Gabbard) will change the complexion. Bernie Sanders appears to have the most devoted followers, but the word, "socialism" is deadly in the U.S. In that regard, I think that Sanders could have pitched himself somewhat differently while advocating the same policies. Biden looks to be the beneficiary of the drop outs, but Warren may yet be a factor. The big issue for the Democrats, as it was last time, is whether they will unite behind whomever the eventual candidate is.
I don't really see Warren as important. I believe she failed to win a single state so far including her own state. And I think the people that follow her will flock to Sanders after she drops out which I expect will be soon.
But with everybody else supporting Biden, not just the candidates but most of the states, Bernie really has little chance now, sadly. And it's not just because of his policies, it's that Biden really doesn't have any. Bernie is the most consistent candidate, not just now but over the decades. He may not be a great politician because he won't play the game of telling people what they want to hear which is probably his greatest weakness. But I admire his steadfastness.
I'm not sure socialism is a bad word in the US except among Republicans who would never vote Democrat anyway. It might effect the moderate support in the general election. I expect the real problem among Democrats is that Sanders isn't part of their establishment and they don't trust him and they think he can't win against Trump because he might not have the support of moderates. Ironically, I think he's the only candidate who can beat Trump. Having a candidate with such bold ideas will energize a lot of Democrats would otherwise not vote in the general election or volunteer. And he's already shown that he has out fund-raised Biden and most of the other candidates.
But I know how it's going to go. Democrats will pick a boring safe candidate and lose again like they did with Hillary Clinton because Republicans are already energized and ready to go.
I agree with Mike. Words are different in the US. I was told we were almost communists in Canada because we had elected a Liberal party. The word 'liberal' is often a pejorative term there. As Mike says, 'socialist' is not a useful term for a campaigning politician there. 'Progressive' is seen much more favourably. I have also been told that our health system must be terrible for Canadian to have to put up with.
While I like many of Bernie's ideas, I think he attacks too harshly the system's faults, instead of saying we can improve this and that, and maybe gradually we can introduce changes to solve the problems of health, education, wealth disparity and hint at what he wants, but give no indication he is going to force through things while many citizens are uncertain. Slow and steady towards these goals would please more voters I suspect.
I watched until midnight as the California vote established itself. Stats were interesting - while Bernie consistently in most states got the under 40 vote, and Joe got the over 40 vote, the older voters showed up in mass. The younger voters that Sanders needs, didn't. He can't count on the young voters showing up.
It's also worth noting that Biden spent almost nothing, and still won, beating for example, Bloomberg, who spent $500,000,000!
Biden is not a great candidate, but he is perceived as a moderate who can gather in some disenchanted Republicans, suburban women, African Americans, and Wall Street. All for the purpose of defeating Donald.
I doubt Sanders could defeat Trump.
Quote from: Jason Wallwork on March 04, 2020, 01:42:27 PM
But I know how it's going to go. Democrats will pick a boring safe candidate and lose again like they did with Hillary Clinton because Republicans are already energized and ready to go.
Neither side has enough committed voters to win the election. To win you have to get out the voters on your side and get the voters who are not ideologically committed to a particular party or candidate. I do think that Sanders would do a better job at getting his voters out on election night. But I also think that Biden is more likely to get votes from people who are not ideologically committed to a particular party or candidate. I don't know which of these assets is more important, but I think we'll get some idea of that from the remainder of the primaries.
It's a bit disturbing that the market pundits are saying that the Dow and S&P skyrocketed up today because Biden is in the lead for the Democrats. Understandably the elite doesn't like Sanders.
However, if the markets keep going up, that will be an endorsement of Trump's handling of the economy, and so increase his chances of being re-elected.
Great TV! More primaries next week. All to be decided November 3rd.
It's like a very thick novel with three threads - displacing the dictator, hanging on to your retirement funds, and avoiding a spreading disease, that takes 8 months to read. A best seller for sure.
Well, Elizabeth Warren just dropped out, and to my surprise, she didn't endorse anyone. That leaves a field of three, but it's now effectively Sanders vs Biden. I suspect that most of Warren's supporters will move over to Sanders.
While Sanders may pick up Warren's supporters, he is heading into some primaries that are unlikely to support him. If it is a two person race, this will be decided by the primary vote, not by the convention. It will be all over after the final primary delegate count. (Not sure how the super-delegates fit into all this, but normally they support the more centrist candidate.)
Quote from: buster on March 05, 2020, 02:26:21 PM
It will be all over after the final primary delegate count. (Not sure how the super-delegates fit into all this, but normally they support the more centrist candidate.)
Only true if one of the candidates has more than 50% of the delegates. Otherwise it's decided at the convention, and the super-delegates get to vote if there is a convention. Sanders rightfully complained last time that it was a fix because he lost because of the super-delegates. I hope that doesn't happen here. A clean result would be best, whether one candidate gets a majority or the one with the highest number of delegates (not counting super-delegates) wins at the convention. But even if that happens and Sanders loses, there is no guarantee that a lot of his supporters won't take their marbles and walk away without voting for the Democratic candidate.
"there is no guarantee that a lot of his supporters won't take their marbles and walk away without voting for the Democratic candidate"
Apparently that happened 3 1/2 years ago, and a small percent of Sander's supporters voted Trump, enough to turn the tide in close presidential primaries. It's possible they may have learned their lesson and seen that some evils are worse than others.
Quote from: fox on March 05, 2020, 01:13:43 PM
Well, Elizabeth Warren just dropped out, and to my surprise, she didn't endorse anyone. That leaves a field of three, but it's now effectively Sanders vs Biden. I suspect that most of Warren's supporters will move over to Sanders.
I called it. :) I said she'd drop out soon.
"Only true if one of the candidates has more than 50% of the delegates."
If there are only 2 left getting seats, it's unlikely one wont have more than 50%, unless there is something I'm not taking into account.
ST2!!!
Super Tuesday Two now in progress, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the race will be basically over for the Democats by 3:00 a.m. tomorrow. Not that Biden will be locked in, but say 3 touchdowns up in the Grey Cup, entering the 4th quarter.
My crystal ball has been in for repairs, and maybe it's fixed this time. It looks fairly clear. It shows an alphabet with a giant B and a quite small S.
You're right, Buster. But I won't rub it in that I said that almost a week ago. And then Biden will go on to lose the election because pablum doesn't work for the Democrats, especially up against Trump. They need an exciting candidate who can pull people to rallies and raise money. Look at the last Democratic Presidents and then look at the Democratic candidates who failed to win. There's a pattern.
Of course, 2000 was about two boring candidates and Goring lost because of a poorly designed ballot and the court. That could have gone either way.
Interesting comment on the business channel that the young fear the corona virus much less than the elderly. So Sanders may have a better turn out than Biden today at the polls.
The USA markets officially reached bear territory today. This may have some effect on the primaries and the November election. We live in interesting times! And at my house, it's time for a beer.
Sanders 'conceded' in the presidential race today, but is leaving his name on the ballot. However his politicking over the last 5 years has made a mark on the Democratic party. After spending time in the States, especially the deep south, I am forced to assume that Trump would win in a showdown between Sanders - Trump. (Check with Fox, who has family down there.) Nevertheless Covid will also make more people look more favorably at a full country public health system.
I suspect his presence will have an effect for years to come.
They did polling that showed that Sanders would win over Trump by a further margin than Biden but it was early on. I figured that Trump would beat Biden because having worked on political campaigns, I know how important it is to get volunteers and I'm not sure Democrats are that thrilled with Biden as a candidate. But the point is moot now.
And with COVID-19, it's hard to predict what will happen. If it goes away before the election and stays away, Trump can claim victory. But if enough voters lose someone to the virus or they become very sick, it could sway the vote the other way. At this point, it's a toss-up.