I may be one of the few, but I'll probably be up most of the night as results come in and then, maybe, I can go to bed calmly.
I would really like to have this thread active so some of us can post comments, observations, predictions - not to be the first to nail the winner, but to notice trends and, for me, continue hoping that this will turn out well for now and for the future. There are things like Texas, which will probably go Trump, but maybe future results will show in the patterns of votes. And will Florida emerge from the dark side? Will the Senate be manageable? And will North Carolina or Georgia actually, really shift to the Blue side?
So as a neighbour of mine suggested, will the States slide into the hands of the left wing radicals and communists and end up like Venezuela , or as I suggested, will it re-elect a narcissistic psychopath who enhances the wealth only of the very, very few? (We are not close friends at the moment.)
I will be here if anyone else feels lonely.
Thank you Buster, for my chuckle for this evening. :-)
Quote from: buster on November 01, 2020, 07:13:55 PM
So as a neighbour of mine suggested, will the States slide into the hands of the left wing radicals and communists and end up like Venezuela , or as I suggested, will it re-elect a narcissistic psychopath who enhances the wealth only of the very, very few? (We are not close friends at the moment.)
I will be here if anyone else feels lonely.
Of course I will be watching it, and following the results with baited breath.
So for republicans to win they need to hold Iowa, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina and Ohio, and all of these are quite doable. Then the big challenge would be to win Florida and Pennsylvania. Arizona might come into play.
Florida will be known by midnight probably, Pennsylvania will be known whenever.
A loss in any of Pennsylvania, Florida or even maybe Georgia would probably do Trump in.
I'll again refer everyone to this great educational and enjoyable game which lets you play with pretty accurate statistics as you see the weird electoral system in action and choose the possibilities. And it will make the election night viewing much clearer. And much more fun.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/us/2020/battlegrounds/
Harry, who will probably be up all night
FiveThirtyEight has a bit of a different take. They use aggregated polls with more recent polling given more weight (it's the same technique that Eric Grenier of the CBC uses) Biden has a clear advantage in Pennsylvania and of the closest states, that's all he needs.
Trump needs to win all the states he's ahead in, a few of which he has precarious leads in:
Ohio (+0.6%)
Iowa (+1.5%)
Texas (+1.5%)
And he has to win the states that Biden is ahead in, some of which are possible, but if he loses even one, he's out. I could see Trump getting half of those states, maybe 1 more. But all of them? No way. I don't think all of the polling margins of error are going to fall in his favour and without Pennsylvania, he's pretty much toast.
Georgia (+0.9%)
Main 2nd District (+1.6%)
North Carolina (+1.7%)
Florida (+2.5%)
Arizona (+1.6%)
Pennsylvania (+4.7%)
Nebraska 2nd District
Should he lose any of those, then he'd have to get one or more Biden states to make up for the lost electoral votes. If he wins all of the leaning Biden states, but loses Pennsylvania he'd have to make up 10-12 of electoral votes and as you can see below, that gets harder and harder to do. Nevada is the easiest but not enough so he'd need Michigan too.
Nevada (+6.1%) - 6 electoral votes
Michigan (+8%) - 16 votes
Wisconsin (+8.3%) - 10 votes
Minnesota (+9.1%) - 10 electoral votes
So, to recap, everything has to go in Trump's favour in the close states and he has to win a state where Biden is ahead by almost 5 points or one or more states where Biden is ahead by 6-9 points). It would take a polling error of catastrophic proportions for the polling to be this far off. As I saw one person put it, the polling companies should admit they don't know what they're doing and just quit.
Sadly, I don't it will be decided tomorrow. With so many states that are close and the high proportion of mail-in ballots and early voting which won't be counted election night. And most of those voting via mail or early are Democrats.
So it's completely possible that on election night, Trump could be over 270 on election night based on counted ballots but 1-2 weeks later lose massively as they count the rest.
I fear that he will declare himself the victor tomorrow night if that happens and then try to annul the main-in ballots. He'll lose but it will paralyze the nation and may very well lead to violence since he's poisoned the mind of his supporter so much that they will fall for the propaganda of voting fraud.
My only hope and it's a huge long shot is that Biden is so far ahead that based on the votes counted he goes over 270. Not that it won't cause Trump and his supporters to cry foul. But if the win is really significant, like 350 then it will be obvious who has won.
Quote from: buster on November 01, 2020, 07:13:55 PM
And will North Carolina or Georgia actually, really shift to the Blue side?
They're both so close it's hard to say. I think that Trump will win one but probably not both. If he loses both it'd be a very bad sign for him as would losing Florida or Ohio.
When Trump is only ahead in Texas by 1.5% you know things are going very bad in the Republican campaign. That should be an easy state for them and with 38 electoral votes, second only to California, they're toast if that happens. They'd have to win all the other states that Biden is slightly favoured in
plus4 states where Biden is ahead by >5%.
What do you think the final outcome of electoral votes will be? I'm looking at a Biden win of between 280 and 407 and Trump a loss between 131 and 270 votes.
I would love to see Biden take 407 but that's pretty unlikely.
I can see 335 to 203 for Biden. And I think that's going to be my prediction but we likely won't know for a week. Something like 56% of Texans (who did vote) voted via early voting or mail-in ballots. That's crazy. So Texas is most likely to switch sides as that vote is counted.
It's not as easy as the CBC interactive but I think FiveThirtyEight's interactive game is more interesting but it takes a bit more work. I also think it's more accurate because it takes into account how one state affects another state with similar demographics or positioning. It can be a bit slow as you pick each state because of these calculations. If you make several changes at a time, longer.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
This is a very good summary fo how the election results will come in during the evening, considering closing times for polls and methods of counting and what we know already:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-election-guide-1.5786629
It sounds similar to your link, Buster, but there's how networks project a winner. I didn't realize that they use state projections that are based on exit polling and polls as well as counted votes.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-us-election-calls-1.5783995
This video that someone cooked up says it all.
https://twitter.com/UTMBColorado/status/1323768157358706688?s=20
(You don't need a Twitter account to watch it)
Washington Post says that Florida has 80% of the votes counted and Biden is leading, but only by 0.3%!
WaPO has called Oklahoma (7 electoral votes), Indiana (11) for Trump and Vermont (3), Mass. (11), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Maryland (10).
Swing states like Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Florida (29), Ohio (18), South Carolina, Georgia (16) have no clear leader but some of those have only 1% counted.
And looks like Florida has switched to Trump with a 0.2% lead. The counties that haven't been counted are traditionally Republican though so so Trump will likely take Florida.
There are still voters in lines in many places and Nevada GOP seeks to extend voting for 1 hour in Clark County, not sure where that is. Biden and, Obama and Trump Jr. are urging voters to stay in line. And just in, hand sanitizer in Iowa has jammed some voting machines (giggle).
Btw, WaPo is showing different electoral vote decisions than the CBC but the CBC is being more conservative in their calls. WaPo says Biden has 207 electoral votes locked up while Trump has only 125. 206 electoral votes are up in the air. That means Trump has to win 75% of those to get re-elected.
Not sure if you guys can view this (might have to register) but this page shows Biden's or Trump's paths to victory. It's fascinating.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/11/03/paths-to-victory-trump-biden/
I'm surprised that Biden is leading substantially in Ohio. I hadn't expected that at all. On the other hand, Florida going the opposite.
Ohio was a toss-up state so doesn't surprise me that much. They were also supposed to get all these magical manufacturing jobs that Trump promised that never emerged.
But Michigan is weird as it was a state that Biden was should be winning but only 16% of the vote has counted so it depends on whether that's rural or urban voting, I guess.
What really shocks me is that Biden is ahead 1% in TEXAS with 65% of the vote counted. That really bodes badly for Trump.
Trump seems to be winning in Florida because of the Latinx vote which still surprises me that they'd vote for him of all people.
I still don't see a path for Trump to win even with Florida. He has to win all of the swing states to take it but if he loses Texas, even that won't be enough with its 38 electoral votes. CBC mentions that Texas is a lot more of an urban state with a more diverse population. That's bad news for the GOP in the future because they'll be losing their solid voters.
It looks like the Democrats could take North Carolina although it doesn't matter that much except that Trump needs to win all the swing states plus one or two Democrat-leaning states to win.
Oh boy, just saw that Democrats are ahead in Kansas with 39% of the vote counted. That also bodes badly for Trump. Kansas and the mid-west generally votes GOP.
Trump winning in Florida. Big Hispanic support. Biden leading in Texas, but rural vote comes in later than rural. Trump at the moment ahead in Michigan - that shouldn't hold but...
Much narrow than expected so far.
The blue wall doesn't look too much of a wall at the moment in the midwest.
Quote from: buster on November 03, 2020, 09:22:41 PM
The blue wall doesn't look too much of a wall at the moment in the midwest.
The midwest always goes Republican from what I understand. I thought the "wall" referred to a bunch of states adjacent to each other. For example, all those blue states in the northeast and if possible down the eastern seaboard although that's a bit of a difficult haul.
They're painting this as a close election because it wouldn't be as interesting if the media showed it as otherwise. but Trump needs a lot more than Florida. He needs all the swing states, none of which other than Florida, have enough of a difference between blue and red to show anything. If Trump loses any of the swing states, he'd toast. And if Trump loses Texas, something I wouldn't have predicted, it's over for Trump but it's so close!
Early results, but Trump way ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania?
Far as I can see, Biden is losing in Wisconsin and Michigan. And Jason, these states are traditionally Dem until Trump took the blue wall.
Trump leading in Texas and Ohio at present moment.
This whole thing does not look good.
A win for Trump is increasingly likely.
Americans are stupid. The present company accepted. :)
I still think that Biden will take it but it's going to be a lot closer than I thought. Remember, Trump has to win all the swing states. If he even loses one and doesn't take a traditionally democratic state or two to make it up for it, he'll still lose.
I'm really surprised about Pennsylvania. I'm starting to worry that the polling might have gone really poorly. A lot worse than Hillary Clinton. Maybe I'll go to bed before it gets worse. :D
Biden is still ahead by 80 electoral votes now. Biden needs 78 more. A lot of mail-in ballots and early voting won't be counted for days and they're (according to polls, though) learning democrat.
I have trouble seeing a way for Biden to win. Losses in Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Texas, and Wisconsin Probably sends him home.
Biden MUST win Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
I'm really worried that the rest of the states are traditionally Republican. So no question I'm worried but I think we knew that Trump was possibly going to be ahead tonight but early voting could switch several states after it's counted.
If Trump does win, it will prove anybody, absolutely anybody could be president. And Putin will be very happy and the world will collectively groan.
Maybe I'm just too optimistic. I didn't think America could elect such an uncouth, trailer trash sociopath twice who is probably singly responsible for potentially hundreds of thousands of American deaths.
I'm off to bed. Too depressing
Quote from: buster on November 03, 2020, 11:29:43 PM
I'm off to bed. Too depressing
I'm with you. Ultimately, Biden could win in enough states with the uncounted votes but Fromm on the CBC is saying that tomorrow Trump will go to the courts tomorrow to try to prevent those votes from being count. And most of the judges that will decide whether to do that were Trump appointees. Ick. He may end up stealing the election and we'll never know.
Okay, my last post just because I found this so interesting. Some of the results we've seen aren't actually counted votes, they're estimated using some new-fangled algorithm. Many of the actual votes aren't counted for day(s) until after election night. See attached graphic. That includes several swing states. The graphic is from this article at the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/26/timing-election-results/). I'm just doing a 30-day trial subscription which cost me a US dollar. :)
I have no idea whether there are enough mail-in ballots to switch wins but even 1 or two could cost Trump the presidency. Here's hoping. I need something, anything to grip onto. Otherwise, I will have to avoid reading anything but Canadian news for the next 4 years lest my face turns the colour of Trump's on a regular basis.
Welcome back fans to this exciting playoff game.
Depending on which side you are on, you should not cry or cheer yet. It ain't over 'til it's over. It's almost noon Wednesday as I write this, and here's how the universe will unfold. Maybe, sort of.
Present moment, already declared wins and losses for electoral votes: Biden 238 Trump 213
Undeclared States - Trump will take all except maybe these three where Biden just barely leads.
Wisconsin Biden lead 0.7% - 10 electoral votes
Michigan Biden lead 0.6% - 16 electoral votes
Nevada Biden lead 0.6% - lead 6 electoral votes
If Trump loses all of these, Biden gathers 32 electoral votes, to go with his already declared 238 votes, and that gives him the magic number of 270, which wins by a hair.
And of course, if the count tilts the other way in any of these three, Trump wins. My guess is, since there are many votes not yet counted in Nevada, this is where the decision will be made.
I wouldn't rule out Pennsylvania or Georgia yet, despite Trump leading. PA has a lot of city votes outstanding, plus the early ballots. For Georgia, my understanding is that a lot of the uncounted votes are in the Atlanta suburbs. Georgia will probably go to Trump, but PA is a toss-up at worst, based on what has yet to be counted.
"I wouldn't rule out Pennsylvania or Georgia yet, despite Trump leading."
You are a true optimist. Pessimism is embedded in my nature. The good thing about this is that often I'm pleasantly surprised.
Wisconsin has been called by the AP for Biden. Biden leading in Michigan by 60,000 with 99% of votes counted. Biden leading in Nevada with 75% of votes counted. Trump's margin in PA down to 5.5% with lots of votes to be counted in Biden-rich areas. Washington Post probability estimates, based on existing tally and status of votes to be counted gives Biden a better chance of winning than Trump in PA. So I am cautiously optimistic.
I am leery of Pa and Ga. But a road to victory exists without them. As Fox mentioned, at the present moment, Biden leads in Nevada by a smidgen above one-half of one percent. If Trump wins, he is the president again. If Biden wins, he replaces the incumbent. Approximately 80% of the votes have been counted. Nevada has said they will release results Thursday morning.
And of course we will have overtime with the recounts. A tough, tough battle for either to lose, and one half of the USA is going to be sad.
Until tomorrow then.
Trump margin in PA continues to decline; down to 3.7% now with 89% of the vote counted. No change in Nevada, and not expecting more results there until tomorrow.
Nevada and Arizona aren't called yet. If Biden can both of those, he'll be President, even without Pennsylvania
Biden is leading in Arizona by 3 points with 83% of the vote counted. He may have clinched it as most of the counties now have 82-84% of the vote counted but it hasn't been called. It looks like Arizona has some mixed constituencies and rural counties where Biden is ahead. WaPo says there are 400,000 votes to count, but the vast majority favour Biden. On, and in case you wondered, citizens voted 60/40 for legalizing marijuana (they might need it after this is over) and 52/48 for increasing income tax. This has to be the only state anywhere that voted for higher taxes.
Nevada hasn't been called either with between 85-90% of the votes counted. Biden leads in Nevada and as Fox mentioned, the uncounted votes are already in Las Vegas which favours Democrats. The next largest area is Reno which is also a Democratic area.
So Biden could very well still win this if Trump doesn't get the results annulled. I would any conscientious judge to not allow this but judges down there seem to be so political, it's hard to say.
Sadly, I think that Trump will win Pennsylvania based on WaPo's analysis. More than 200 K votes remain in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh where Biden has a large margin on Trump so they'll likely break Democratic there. There are still votes in strongly Republican areas (and where Trump is outpacing his numbers from 2016) so unless the uncounted ballots go dramatically Democratic, Trump will probably win Penn's Woods. I think the anti-fracking stance of Biden probably hurt him there but not as much as you'd think.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/vote-count/
Btw, the quote in my signature line is particularly apropos. Trudeau used it when he lost the election to Joe Clark in '79.
Breaking News!!! See picture.
Quote from: Jason Wallwork on November 05, 2020, 12:12:13 AM
Sadly, I think that Trump will win Pennsylvania based on WaPo's analysis. More than 200 K votes remain in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh where Biden has a large margin on Trump so they'll likely break Democratic there. There are still votes in strongly Republican areas (and where Trump is outpacing his numbers from 2016) so unless the uncounted ballots go dramatically Democratic, .....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/vote-count/
I beg to differ with you on this prediction. The difference between the two is now down to 2.1%, from 3.7% yesterday evening. If you look at the same Washington Post site, but this part of it (https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/pennsylvania-2020/), you'll see the projections ("estimates of final vote tally"). The darkest line in those estimates is what the Post thinks is the most likely outcome. It clearly shows the blue line (Biden) well ahead of the the red line (Trump).
Update: Difference is now down to 1.9% (120,000 votes), with an estimated 9% left to count. Given that some 6,300,000 votes have already been counted, there must be some 600,000 votes left to count. Biden would have to win some 60% of them to win the state.
Fox, you're comparing a prediction I made 12 hours before yours when less of the remaining vote was counted. So you're saying in effect, I beg to differ now with your prediction 12 hours before when much less of the vote was counted. Looking at it now, I beg to differ with myself, too. :D I'm pretty sure that dark line was in a different place late last night. I believe WaPo was saying a likely win for Trump then. I was trying to figure out why Pennsylvania's vote was so important to you and then I remembered it's where you're from. I get it now. :)
Evan Siegfried, a Republican Strategist, had this to say about the eventual outcome on CTV News (https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2070634):
"I have to believe there is more of a chance of a unicorn flying over the White House than of Donald Trump getting a second term."
:) :) :) :)
Just looked at the topic subject again. This is one hell of a long election night! ;D
We'd be remiss if we didn't mention Kanye West's faux campaign (https://www.vulture.com/2020/11/kanye-west-election-2020-vote-results.html) that managed to get 60,000 votes across 12 states! In Wyoming, his home state, he wrote himself in. Considering his fan base, you would have thought he'd have gotten a lot more votes but hey, 0.4% of the vote in three states is a good start for his next race. Kanye recognizing his defeat, said on Twitter:
QuoteWELP
According to Vulture, "he sadly later deleted this tweet, and reposted it with ââ,¬Å"KANYE 2024,ââ,¬Â but the sentiment prevails." The man clearly has a future on the political scene.
Btw, Republican strategists were working on his Presidential bid as an independent. It's likely that they thought they could split the Black vote among Democrats. They were a bit short.
Interesting - I just looked again on the WaPo site, and it appears that the only state they are making projections for is Pennsylvania. I was hoping for projections in Georgia, where Trump's lead is now under 10,000.
Regarding the Pennsylvania projection, what I see now on that site is no different from what I remember when I first looked at it last night.
No love for Kanye West? :o Also, I'm not sure where I saw it now but in one district, two Republicans were running against one Democrat. I didn't even know that was something that was still allowed. The Democratic candidate won. Historically, early on the US had multiple candidates for President from one party against one from the other party. Of course, the candidate with the second most votes became the VP so there was a lot of funny stuff going on back then. They had to change that with an amendment, quite understandably. Imagine today with Biden winning and Trump becoming VP. Jesus.
I shouldn't really depend on one source of news so much but WaPo seems to have fascinating analyses and some informative videos as well with various experts not just on politics, either. Anyway, this page (https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/11/05/trump-biden-election-live-updates/) is interesting showing that it's not just Arizona, Pennsylvania that are very close. Biden could end up winning one or more of these other states.
QuoteGeorgia: Trumpââ,¬â,,¢s lead in the vote count in Georgia slipped to under 2,000 votes as of 9:40 p.m. Eastern. The state has approximately 16,000 ballots left to count; 8,900 requested overseas and military ballots have till tomorrow to arrive.
QuoteNorth Carolina: Election officials said they will review about 41,000 provisional ballots from voters whose eligibility may be questioned, along with around 110,000 outstanding absentee ballots. They expect to finalize their count by Nov. 12. Biden is about 76,000 votes behind Trump.
And while the gap with Trump in the lead is narrowing in Penn's Woods (seriously, that was the original name of the colony), in Arizona, it's the other way. Biden should get Nevada. If he gets that and Arizona, he'll be exactly at 270. If he gets Penn., he won't need either. For Trump to win now, he has to take
all five states, hence all the lawsuits. That, and to convince his supporters the election was stolen from him because he can't bear to lose anything other than his dignity.
It looks less and less that Trump is going to be victorious.
The overwhelming majority of ballots in Penn. should be counted by tomorrow.
Even if Trump loses, he's sewn further distrust among the electorate of government and let to levels of irrationality that boggle the mind. There are demonstrations in the US of groups of Republicans who really do believe that there are millions of forged ballots out there.
And with the strong implacable stances of Republican supporters including a lot of racism, previously unimagined scenarios are being entertained. I believed and still believe that alarmist warnings of a civil war are far-fetched. But I no longer believe it'ss outside of the realm of possibility.
Both sides are becoming increasingly intractable and extremists on both sides (I mean non-moderates) are considering each other as monsters. These far-left and far-right sections of each party are becoming much more vocal. Combined with large-scale protests of Blacks and the rise of white supremacy, the conditions for large-scale violence to erupt across the nation. I don't really think it would be a war but I can see a lot of destruction happening with mass riots and chaos especially if Trump wins. He thrives on it and he's already shown to have a dictatorial approach.
In the lead up to the Civil War, similar animosity was growing between the southern slave states and the northern free states. When the balance between the two opposing views was maintained, that animosity was kept sedate. When it tipped to one direction (in this case, the election of Lincoln), secession began. Regardless of who wins, if the other side thinks they were cheated out of a win, terrible things could result. This isn't Bush v. Gore. Politics was much more civil then and I don't think the supporters of both parties had such vitriol for the other guys.
Maybe I'm just becoming worse of a pessimist than Buster.
Georgia is now flipped, but by less than a 1,000 vote difference. But I'm less confident that Biden will end up winning it than I am in Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, Trump is still up, but only by about 21,000 votes and the difference is only 0.3%. I expect that one to flip permanently some time today.
Numbers simplify most things
Either candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. If youââ,¬â,,¢ve spent time in North Carolina, you know that Republicans will win here, so Iââ,¬â,,¢ve decided this state for Trump. At this moment, hereââ,¬â,,¢s where each is:
Biden 253 (17 votes short ) Trump 229 (41 votes short )
Here is what is left:
Nevada(6): Biden up by 1,440 votes with 89% counted, a 0.9% lead.
Arizona(11): Biden up by 47,000 votes with 90% counted, a 1.6% lead
Georgia(16): Biden up by 1100 votes with 98% counted, a 0% lead so to speak
Pennsylvania(20): Trump leads this state by 18,049 votes with 95% counted, a 0.3 lead.
I think my numbers are correct for the next part (I took off my shoes and socks to make it easier counting).
Trump has to win at least three of these states to get 41 more votes.
Biden needs to win any two of these to win (unless by some miracle he wins Pennsylvania). That would give him at least 17.
So thatââ,¬â,,¢s the numbers. And those are the four states to watch.
Professor B. Ellis, MBs
Dr. Fox has just bluntly informed me :) that Pennsylvania has Biden leading at the moment, a much needed miracle after these dark and gloomy 4 years. So magic does exist.
Quote from: buster on November 06, 2020, 09:22:40 AM
Numbers simplify most things
Not this time around, apparently where people are arguing over adding (votes).
Btw, my comment about violence around the country? Eric Trump. spoke at a rally where he said, regarding the legal challenges, "... fight each and every one of these legal battles, to the death..." That's like lighting a match to the powder keg. Biden is calling for calm and letting the process finish while the Republicans are trying to stop voting from happening (Trump outright put it that way) and talking about fights to the death. I know Americans are known for making bombastic statements but this is disturbing just the same.
I hope that events like this one reported by the CBC (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-trump-us-election-friday-1.5792050) are isolated:
"In Philadelphia, two armed men were arrested Thursday near the convention centre where an ongoing vote count was happening, police said Friday.
"The men travelled to the city in a Hummer with Virginia plates and did not have permits to carry the weapons in Pennsylvania, police said. They were arrested after police received a tip about their plans.
"The car was adorned with an American flag and a window sticker for the right-wing conspiracy theory QAnon, which the FBI warned has occasionally led to violence perpetrated by its most fervent believers."
Update: I originally said that it was Donald Trump Jr. who made the call to arms but it was actually Eric Trump. Somebody really wants to be in daddy's will badly.
Biden is going to speak to the nation in prime time tonight. i doubt it's an acceptance speech. More of a 'let the universe unfold calmly' speech would be my guess.
No time available that I can find. When someone knows, would you post it please/
Quote from: buster on November 06, 2020, 05:58:11 PM
No time available that I can find. When someone knows, would you post it please/
9 PM according to here (https://decider.com/2020/11/06/how-to-watch-joe-bidens-election-speech-tonight/). Evidently, Harris will speak first and Biden will take over.
Can you stay awake until then, Buster? ;-)
And there's the big difference between the two camps. One calls for calm and letting the process goes as it should, the other makes incendiary comments that could cause violence but will certainly instill distrust. One side believes in democracy, the other site in authoritarianism. Think it's just Trump? How come elected Republican representatives aren't calling Trump's claim for what it is, nonsense? The best we've seen is Mitch McConnel saying to let the process continue and that Americans should trust the result. He and all Republicans need to say a lot more than that. They need to condemn Trump's poisoning of the well in no uncertain terms.
"All it takes for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing."
Stephen Colbert began his 'The Late Show' with a sombre talk and then the monologue (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeSiJmLoJd0), which is as amusing as always. It's no coincidence that he makes similar points.
Thanks Jason.
Now they're saying he's going to speak inside of the Chase Center but he hasn't yet (at least as of 9:40 pm) done so. I'm also not seeing news of what he said anywhere so I'm guessing he hasn't spoken yet. Is he waiting for final results in Pennsylvania to secure his presidency before he speaks?
I think he was holding off to see with the count just how likely his win is. To me, the speech looked a little of an acceptance as well as calling for calm, etc. He even suggested how many E.V. (304 or 307?) they'd likely end up with after winning 4 of the 5 states that are close. Along with Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona, he may yet take Georgia. And you never know, he might take Alaska, they have lots of votes to count there. ;) Along with 1 electoral vote in Nebraska, it looks like the Democratic "wall" will still be there. Now if they could build on that wall for next time.
It's still my contention that, had they picked Bernie, the election wouldn't have been as close. They did get more Democrats out there voting for Biden and Independents, which they believe, put Biden over the top. But Trump won four years ago because he was a populist that spoke directly to average Americans (even if it was mostly lying) and he pulled over voters that would have voted Democrat. I know that because I've talked to many of them. Once Sanders was out for 2016, they voted for the orange snake oil salesman. But we'll never know and I guess ultimately it doesn't matter how much you win by as long as you win.
On another subject, how many of you think that Trump will literally stay in office until they escort him off the premises? I think there's about a 2 to 1 chance he will claiming fraud all the way. He doesn't seem like the guy who will go quietly into the night. And, this sounds crazy, but it might be possible for him to pardon himself of any crimes before he leaves. My legal professor friend was telling me that constitutional experts are split on whether it's possible.
Joe just biden his time. Donald trumps up illegal ballot claims.
What? What............?
The Associated Press has given Biden Pennsylvania and Nebraska.
It seems to be over except for 2 1/2 more months of Mr Trump in charge. And covid, and the California fires, and maybe a tropical storm in Florida.
Because Biden reached a 0.5 % lead in Pennsylvania, anyone who asks for a recount has to pay for it I believe.
Next 3 weeks will be interesting. Maybe a meltdown city scenario. Maybe a calm acceptance. Maybe vitriol the like of which we have never seen before.
You mean Pennsylvania and Nevada.
Georgia hasn't been called yet, and that is one of the most important to me. It would not only be a flip (like Arizona), but also, there will be two senatorial races there in January that will make the difference as to who controls the senate.
Should read ....Pennsylvania and Nevada....
I'm just so exhausted from all my reporting. (Fox understands about my other lives.)
You must have a lot of hometown pride tonight, Fox. Your state put Biden over the top! There are a lot of Gritty memes going on out there for Hockey fans like this one.
The money gathering for legal battles may have nothing to do with fighting the results. I went to the fund raising site, scrolled down, and found this buried in the fine print:
"50% of each contribution, up to a maximum of $2,800 ($5,000), to be designated toward DJTFPââ,¬â,,¢s 2020 general election account for general election debt retirement until such debt is retired."
Go to https://www.donaldjtrump.com/ and click 'contribute'. Scroll down.
So he might have to fight for quite awhile 'til the debt is paid off.
I doubt that has anything to do with the reason. Spending money on thousands of lawyers to get donations isn't a wise strategy. Compared to Biden, he didn't get a lot of donations during the election, it's doubtful he's going to get a lot more after losing it. And it's not like Trump is personally responsible for the debt. He doesn't even care about the debt he and his personal companies rack up. It's unlikely he cares about this. Maybe the campaign fund administrators care but even that's doubtful. I don't think the debt becomes the party's concern. It's more about Trump's ego, and not even winning those states, just so he doesn't have to look like a "loser" something Trump can't even consider.
Presidential debt seems to be a common fixture of losers. According to this NPR article (https://www.npr.org/2011/07/05/137615746/presidential-campaign-debt-can-linger-for-decades), John Glenn took 23 years to pay off his debt and that's because he was trying to do the right thing. Most defeated candidates don't even bother.
The dishonesty bothers me. Many loyal Trumpsters are donating their mony to 'fight for justice', and when they look at the web page, there is no clear indication that half the money is being syphoned off.
It says up to half. In Canada, up to 100% can be used to pay off debts from party donations so they are getting a better deal although it looks like this is specific to the presidential campaign. I expect that some law just requires them to point out what should be obvious when you think about it. And it's not dishonest when you put it there, in the fine print when a donation is made. Our parties or candidate donations don't even tell you that much.
Oh, I think I see what you're getting at now. There is a donate button text at the top that says to donate to their defence fund. My eyes just shot to the contribute button not that text. And it doesn't outright say that you're donating to their general fund. But the print below is still there after you click on it. It also says below the buttons for the amount to donate "Your contribution will benefit Donald J. Trump for President, Inc and Trump Make America Great Again Committee." pretty clearly. It could be perceived as being dishonest or at least fuzzy but remember this is Donald Trump we're talking about. Most of his supporters already know he lies incessantly so how can they expect better from his campaign?