Simple Known Dangers with AI, and Possible Future Dangers Too.

[Jason]

I think the Citrini Research people probably used AI as a source for their article, so it probably is just AI hallucination

Okay, stupid question, where is Citrini Research mentioned? I couldn't find it in the article you quoted, Bill.

[ssfc72]

Jason
2nd paragraph in the Linked article,   "A feedback loop with no brake': how an AI doomsday report shook US markets"

Found an article that reads like sci-fi that is interesting because it caused some stock prices to fall a few days ago. Read most of the original article as well, but it's long. Some of the people who work in the coding business say the time line is too quick. The thesis is that if ai causes high unemployment, the whole economic system we have built is in danger.

Interesting ideas.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/24/feedback-loop-no-brake-how-ai-doomsday-report-rattled-markets

[Jason]

Jason
2nd paragraph in the Linked article,  "A feedback loop with no brake': how an AI doomsday report shook US markets

Thanks, Bill. Not sure how I missed it. I think maybe I was looking for it in the other article that you linked.

I ran the substack article through chatgpt asking it the probability it was written by AI. It gave a 75-80% chance for the reasons give here:

https://chatgpt.com/s/t_69bece473bb88191920c19c34463236a

It listed a number of reasons of how it came up with the conclusion. I'm listing them here but you'd have to read the link to get more details for each reason. The titles are obtuse.

• Extremely consistent rhetorical structure
• Repetitive conceptual loops (semantic recursion)
• Very broad domain fluency without friction
• Synthetic realism (plausible but unverifiable specifics)
• Length + coherence combination
• High density of polished, "quotable" lines

The irony of using AI to check if something is AI doesn't escape it. But takes one to know one.

I notice as the bottom of the article they also say that the other co-listed article came up with the idea for the post and it was partly written by them. They also list themselves as the author which isn't totally unusually but usually when you co-write an article, if you list one author, you list them both. So they're not claiming they or the co-author wrote an original piece. ChatGPT suggests that it shows the marks of having been written by AI and edited lightly by a human by replacing some common AI-constructed sentences with more humanized ones, and adding some anecodotes.

[buster]

I found an unexpected danger from AI which I hadn't noticed, and it ties together AI, Trump, bond rates, taxes, and USA debt. I'm not saying this will all play out negatively, but if we were watching a movie we'd say, "I know where this is going!"
a) Debt. The USA has reached the unbelievable level of $40 trillion dollars in debt. This is generally speaking borrowed money that is owed, and as with credit cards, payment has to be paid to the lenders, some of whom live in foreign countries. To clarify, the interest on this debt amounts to 3 billion dollars per day, or $30,000 per second. So money has to be borrowed to pay the interest. Hmmm.
b) Taxes. Governments usually raise taxes to cover increased costs. Trump and the Republicans cut taxes. They think this will encourage more economic expansion which will help replace the cut taxes. However the growth is doing little to replace the money, and this is not unusual.
c) Trump has an odd war going on with friends and foes. Tariffs make the whole world's economy less certain, and this is directed at friends. The war with Iran needs little comment to understand its costs.
d) AI needs to borrow billions to develop, which drives bond rates even higher, which makes borrowing more expensive for everyone. What happened in 2007 might repeat. 30 year bonds are earning the highest rate since the collapse of 2007.

[Jason]

I expect the bubble in AI companies to burst any day. At least RAM and graphics card prices will come back down.

[Jason]

It'd be interesting to compare the level of US debt relative to GDP now to what it was at its highest since they started measuring it, probably during WW2.

[buster]

There are quotes from the Internet:

"The U.S. federal debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 123%, following national debt figures surpassing the $40 trillion milestone. This metric illustrates that total public debt slightly exceeds one and a quarter times the entire annual economic output of the United States."

" Historically, the ratio peaked around 106% following World War II in 1946, dropped to a modern low near 31.8% in 1974, and surged past historical records to cross 130% during the COVID-19 pandemic."

The bump during the pandemic is understandable, but that is past and yet the debt is growing at an amazing rate.

[Jason]

I did a quick search, and it appears the national debt-to-GDP ratio was highest after WWII, at 127.5%. But that's the entire federal debt, including domestic and foreign debt. I think the number you gave was just domestic debt. Either way, that ratio has exceeded that at the end of WWII. That's a real problem. Not because the US might default on its debt anytime soon, but because the higher interest rates to attract investors will make it increasingly difficult to balance the budget. And of course, that means higher deficits unless they start making mammoth cuts now. For now, the stability of the American economy and dollar keeps investors happy, but that won't last forever. They've already had their credit rating decreased at least once.

That's the situation Canada was in during the mid-90s, when interest on the debt was the largest single expense. I don't think we were anywhere near this ratio, though. Interest rates were ridiculously high because of an overheated economy and the central bank's focus on stopping inflation, and of course, that led to huge cuts, mostly in transfer payments to the provinces. And we still suffer as a result of those cuts. The federal government used to cover 50% of healthcare. Last I heard it was around 20%.