Brexit hugely important, and a big plot development occurs Tusday

[buster]

The Brexit dream, for that's what it is, may start to unravel with Tuesday's vote in the British House of Commons. The problems with Brexit are immense -the Irish border, the voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland who voted against it, and especially the huge daily flow of trade between mainland Europe and Great Britain and N.Ireland. And London would probably forfeit it's role as one of the most important financial centres of the world.

And that ignores the fact that the worst way to win an emotional issue is to throw it out to public media and have the citizens decide with a vote that can pass with 50% + 1. (The best way is to elect wise people who can study the issue and come up with some kind of compromise that pretty well works, and is possible.)

This Gwynne Dyer article talks about Tuesday, and adds a bit of humour at the end:

https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-brexit-referendums-best-two-out-of-three

[buster]

Well, here are some new developments that I missed. The vote has been delayed, so a 'hard Brexit', with who knows what consequences, is now a possibility.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/10/uk/brexit-vote-delay-theresa-may-gbr-intl/index.html

[Jason]

Did you see the link to the CNN article? Apparently, the European Court of Justice ruled that the UK can unilaterally reverse the decision it gave the EU to leave the bloc. Just a little more stir to add to the pot

[Jason]

Honestly though, even a bad trade deal is better than no trade deal with your neighbours. Much like how the US dictates trade agreements to us because of their much larger population base so the EU can dictate terms to the UK. But it's even worse because divorces rarely ever go smoothly.

[fox]

....
This Gwynne Dyer article talks about Tuesday, and adds a bit of humour at the end:
https://lfpress.com/opinion/columnists/dyer-brexit-referendums-best-two-out-of-three

Quite interesting, as Gwynne Dyer always is. The bit about fighting in the streets is a no-show though. Brits don't do stuff like that unless it relates to their football teams.

[buster]

PM May is facing a vote of confidence only in her Conservative party. It appears she will win, though she wouldn't win the House of Commons as a whole. But as commentators say, 'It is a secret ballot.'

Results should be known later this afternoon.
https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/uk_leaves_the_eu

Since apparently most citizens want a new public vote on Brexit, and the government can't come up, after all this time, with anything that pleases most politicians, most citizens, and most Irish and Scots, then Buster suggests they say that for now they'll stay in the Union, or they put it to a citizen's vote - accept this deal, or stay in the Union. (There can be no other deal at this time in the proceedings! Europe made that clear.)

[Jason]

Was reading this on my phone this morning. She'll likely survive but where she goes from there is going to tough. I have this feeling they're going to end up with a hard Brexit because they can't agree on what to do. I don't think the sky will fall if that happens but their economy will take a hit. I noticed the PM has said she doesn't plan on leading the Conservatives in the next election although  maybe that's just to shore up support so she's not ousted today. Voting finishes at 3 pm our time so we'll know her fate shortly but I don't think it will change much honestly other than the UK asking for more time from the EU.

[buster]

Got this from the Guardian:

Theresa May could simply announce that under no circumstances will the UK leave the EU with no deal on 29 March. She could explain that if her own plan is not approved by parliament, then she will extend or rescind article 50 to give Britain more time.

I know. Sounds too reasonable. And it's doubtful it will happen.

There are all kinds of unforeseen consequences, such as the loss of Euro nurses, doctors, and tourist trade, and new rules for financial transactions. And of course the biggie is the Irish border.

We will see on the news in 100 days, I suspect, aerial pictures of the ferries near Dover. Interesting times. We have to hope it all works out gently and positively.

The Devil is in the details, whatever they turn out to be.   

[buster]

Some of the 'details', copied from Bloomberg:

The U.K. is the broadcasting hub of Europe, home to more channels than any other EU member state. International media companies collectively spend about 1 billion pounds ($1.26 billion) annually in the U.K. on things like content, production facilities and technology, according to research by media analysis firm Oliver & Ohlbaum commissioned by the Commercial Broadcasters Association lobby group.

Through its commercial arm BBC Studios, the BBC makes some channels available elsewhere in the EU, such as BBC Entertainment, which carries re-runs of shows such as sci-fi hit “Doctor Who,” “Bargain Hunt” and “Antiques Roadshow.” The BBC generates hundreds of millions of pounds of revenue from EU markets, according to the U.K.’s telecommunication regulator Ofcom.

EU rules say broadcasters need to have their head office, a significant part of their workforce or a satellite up-link in the country to qualify for a license there, a requirement which could see the BBC move some staff and operations into the EU.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-19/bbc-is-said-to-seek-new-eu-permits-as-no-deal-brexit-risk-grows?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

[Jason]

Interesting stuff, to be sure. Some don't realize that it isn't just a trade deal they're a part of.

The government's White Paper says there is "no single figure" for this, but that there are believed to be 12,000 EU regulations (one type of EU law) in force, while Parliament has passed 7,900 statutory instruments implementing EU legislation and 186 acts which incorporate a degree of EU influence.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39266723

That's probably what troubles Brits the most, not the trade but the fact that there are areas of the law where EU judges and EU legislators have a say over them.

[buster]

Sometime after January 14th begins, the British House of Commons will vote to accept or reject the Tory bill for a 'sort of Brexit'. So in less than a fortnight from today. Seems a bit, the whole thing, like painting the floor and ending up in a corner. Ah well.

[buster]

So the Tory Brexit Bill was defeated by a majority larger than any other in the democratic era - 230 votes!!!

What happens next is way, way up in the air. No ones knows, except they may have to exit anyway, and no one can predict what will happen minutes after that happens.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/15/theresa-may-loses-brexit-deal-vote-by-majority-of-230

[buster]

It's also worth noting that Britain has been in the European union for over 45 years! Just imagine all the connections and legislation and travel that has developed in pretty well any field you'd like to mention - medicine, education, construction, entertainment, sports, business, tourism, banking, ........

[Jason]

Well, the PM hung on to fight another day in that she survived the non-confidence vote. Where she goes from here is going to be hard to say. And time is running out.

[Jason]

Had to share this meme circulating on Facebook.