Ontario PC Leadership race

[Jason]

I don't know about you guys but I'm really enjoying watching the PC squabble. And now Patrick Brown is officially back in the race to get the job he resigned from. This is going to get nasty. And my best is that Premier Wynne is going to call a snap election as soon as they pick their leader at the end of March. Brand new leader, probably Ford, and the party's wounds from a divisive leadership race (and they're all divisive) still freshly exposed.

What's your thoughts? Who do you think will win the PC leadership? Did the PCs already lose the coming election? Will the party infighting lead to a collapse of their vote? Maybe the NDP will become the Official Opposition. Political fratricide can be so much fun.

[fox]

I would be surprised if Ford emerges as the PC leader; too many people don't like him. As for Patrick Brown, I don't care for him personally, but I'm not convinced that he is guilty of any sexual improprieties given the lack of corroboration and falsehoods in one of the accuser's stories. I don't want to make light of these accusations, but just making them doesn't make them true and people's careers are being destroyed. Having said that, there are other reasons for the PC's not supporting Brown's candidacy, so I wouldn't bet on him. I think it will end up as either Elliot or Mulroney. Either would stand a chance against Kathleen Wynne, if for no other reason that the Liberals have been in power for so long and a lot of people think it's time for a change. I don't think Ford could beat her. Ironically, I think John Tory could.

[buster]

Doubt Ford will win. No matter who gets the leadership, the die hard Right Wingers will vote PC. The disillusioned Libs will move towards PC's and NDP. No party is a shoo-in, but as we saw in the States, right wingers will accept any leader. So they have a strong core vote which gives them an advantage. Libs are seen as money wasters and not green energy developers. NDP faces the same problems as they had in the past without a charismatic leader.   Very uncertain election.

We could have a pool (no money involved). Used to run them for the whole school, staff included. I handed out a paper slip that stated the number of seats in the Ontario legislature, and each contestant had to fill in the spaces:
Your name ________
Lib_________
Con________
NDP________
Green_______
Independent________

The difference between the actual and your guess for each party was your score for that party. Total the numbers and that is you overall score. LOWEST score wins.

[Jason]

Though I won't go as far as charismatic, Andrea Horwath has consistenly ranked as the most popular of the three leaders when Patrick Brown was still leader of the PCs. The reason I think Ford could win is because he's a red meat Conservative and a straight-shooter. After Patrick Brown was trying to swing the party to the centre, I bet there are lot of annoyed Conservatives who want to swing the party back to pocketbook Conservativism and in-your-face politics. You have to remember, we're talking about not just Conservatives but Conservatives who bought a membership and every riding is weighted equally in the contest which means the rural areas are also over-represented, exactly the kind of core voters the Ford is likely to attract with his purported value politics.

I'm not saying he'd win the election - that would be a long shot even with the Lib support being tied with the PCs. But it's Brown that could really split the party with his supporters (many of them MPs who think he got a raw deal. I expect there will many more disillusioned Conservatives than Liberals this election around. Basically the supporters of the 2nd place candidate, and if they're the moderates, they will sit out voting or vote Liberal just out of spite. If it's the other way around and one of the other moderate candidates wins, and I think they're all moderates except for that woman who basically just hates the sex ed curriculum, then the hardcore Conservatives won't be volunteering to help in the campaign and possibly not voting. But a lot could depend on the platform and whether Wynne springs for an early election.

Btw, last time around the NDP stole a few (though not many) seats from PCs in South-Western Ontario probably because of vote splits. If that happens again, it is possible for the NDP to come up the middle like in 1990. Not likely, I agree, but it could happen. That's actually a scary outcome, honestly, because they NDP (like in 1990) doesn't have enough experienced people to fill a cabinet which means there will be newly-elected members in it and likely big screw ups.

But quite honestly, elections usually come down to this, the economy. If voters feel good about the economy and its direction, they will re-elect the incumbent government. If they don't, they will vote for a change in government. On that basis, I predict a Liberal minority though still possibly a majority if the election becomes about voting strategically. Andrea Horwath has to prepare for the Liberals to pull this out as they do every election.

Predicting seat totals at this stage of the game is much too early. I do think the Conservative vote will depend at least partly on the leader. But once they pick a leader, I might be ready to give it a shot.

[buster]

The predictions are sent in during the  last  few days before the election. And getting a good score is surprisingly difficult. Far too many variables. But it was always fun. Huge amount of luck getting close - too many contested ridings that depend on unknowable variables.

It added a little edge to watching the results come in.

[Jason]

Yeah, it'll be fun. I've participated in others before :-)

[Jason]

I'm not the only one saying that this leadership race, especially with Brown in it, could divide the Ontario PCs. And what if he wins? That could lead two the party literally splitting in two.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/with-browns-inclusion-in-ontario-pcs-race-partys-long-term-survival-is-now-on-the-line/article38061537/

[Jason]

This article was both entertaining and insightful. You know it's going to be when it starts off like this:

Patrick Brown reminds me of a really bad boyfriend. The more you find out about him, the worse it gets. There's something sneaky and sharp about the way he operates. His taste for age-inappropriate women is a little creepy. Everything is always all about him. Add it up and he's just too weird. So you break up with him. But he won't go away! He busts back into your apartment and demands another chance. You give in. You wonder if he's going to boil your bunny.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/ontario-voters-deserve-better-than-a-political-gong-show/article38072395/#_=_

[William Park]

I found it sanctimonious, superficial, and political posturing.  I didn't know Patrick Brown until this happened, which smells like insider coup, by the way.  I hope he gets his old job back.

[Jason]

Did you real the whole article, William? I believe the author is a Conservative herself. I think he's doing huge damage to his brand (the party) by trying to get back the leadership. Whatever you think of the guy, you don't resign from a party and a few weeks later run for the leadership. The leadership race is *because* he resigned. It wasn't a coup, now if they had actually tossed him out, it would have been. I don't know if what he is alleged to have done is true or not, but you don't come back from this in politics and that's why his top officials were urging him to resign. But he didn't have to.

[Jason]

So Patrick Brown has proved it's possible to resign for the same job twice. I'm loving the reality show that is the Ontario PC leadership race. Pity it will be over in a couple of weeks.

[Jason]

Some background on the candidates from the Conservative-friendly (but fair) Globe and Mail:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/list-of-ontario-progressive-conservative-candidates/article37851848/

[Jason]

Any final thoughts before the announcement of the winner tomorrow? And who do you think it going to win? My bet is still on Ford winning the leadership and (hopefully) losing the provincial election in June. There are so many Conservatives who like Trump here and Ford is about the closest they'd get to him. I think the hardcore Conservative supporters would vote for him (also likely those with memberships). It might be close though.

[dougal]

hey Jason , did you buy any lottery tickets?  here's hoping your second wish comes true.

[Jason]

hey Jason , did you buy any lottery tickets?  here's hoping your second wish comes true.

Lol. Nope. And yes, I hope so, too.