Ontario Election Prediction

[ssfc72]

Thanks Jason!
Seems very stupid to me, to have some advanced voting days where you don't need to fill out a long form and then other advance voting days where you have to fill out a long form, in order to vote??

[Jason]

Thanks Jason!
Seems very stupid to me, to have some advanced voting days where you don't need to fill out a long form and then other advance voting days where you have to fill out a long form, in order to vote??

That's because actual advanced polls are set up just like on voting days with poll clerks, deputy returning officers, information officers, and so on. Special ballots aren't technically other advance voting days. They are literally, a special way of voting, hence the form. You don't even need to be in your home riding to cast a special ballot there which is why there is extra paperwork. Special ballots aren't advanced polls, and can only be done at the returning office either in person or by mail. They put extra work on staff which is why they setup advanced polls.

[Paul Kneeland]

Here is the prediction by Polly, the Artificial Intelligence:

Conservatives: 74 Seats
NDP:               49 Seats
Liberals:            1 Seat

https://www.facebook.com/TheAgenda/videos/10155272901215047/?t=46


If you are interested in "Polly", Erin Kelly and Advanced Symbolics:

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/psychographically-exposed

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/tracking-voters-during-election-2018

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/the-changing-minds-of-ontario-voters

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/the-final-leaders-debate

https://tvo.org/node/326272

[Jason]

Is this your prediction as well? Trying in vain apparently, to get anybody else, including Buster, to make a seat prediction. I don't think Polly will want my award of a free coffee and donut for the person closest to the correct seat count.

[Paul Kneeland]

OK, I'll take a crack at this. Pauly say:

Conservatives:   68
NDP:                 52
Liberal:               3
Green:                1

[fox]

The CBC Ontario poll tracker has seen the NDP drop slowly but consistently against the PCs. Their percentages are now: PC 38.0, NDP 36.5, Liberals 19.1, Greens 5.0. Projected seats are: PC 73, NDP 50, Lib 1. I'm going to suggest that the young people are going to come out in greater than expected numbers and push the NDP and Liberals up a bit. My projection:

PC:    66
NDP:  52
Lib:     5
Green: 1

[buster]

So finally I have gathered up enough courage to make my prediction at one of the most politically depressing moments of my life. After the marginal shift in voters' preferences and second thoughts by the small percentage who actually think about the consequences of their votes, I predict that after all the votes are tallied, and the results are known, there will be 13.6 million losers in the Province of Ontario.

[Paul Kneeland]

Holy Crap! I've never seen such consistent Poll numbers. Look at the PC column; 39,39,39... It will be interesting to see the actual results.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls

[Jason]

I bet the provincial Liberals are going be in support of changing the voting system again after being virtually annihilated.

But if we had a proportional representation system, the PCs would not get a majority government with those numbers. The seat results using the CBC tracking poll with PR would be:


48 PC
45 NDP
25 LIB
6   GRN

The PCs wouldn't be over-represented by winning 65-75 seats, the Liberals wouldn't be risking losing official party status in the legislature and there would be more than a single Green MPP. That's how it *should* be.

[buster]

"I bet the provincial Liberals are going be in support of changing the voting system again after being virtually annihilated."

Doubtful. Easier to get back into power with the present system. And Liberals learned their lesson when they investigated it at the federal level and learned how absolutely complex it is as a voting system.

I voted a person today, not a party.  Dividing everything into parties is not always a good idea, especially when platforms presented are so tentative, or maybe not even produced.

(I am expecting a very long reply to this Jason. But not with enthusiasm.  )

[William Park]

I voted a person today, not a party.  Dividing everything into parties is not always a good idea, especially when platforms presented are so tentative, or maybe not even produced.

Party is more important than individual, I think.  Probably, more important than the detailed platform (only Liberal can run on their records) is how they view tax payers and tax recipients.

Green party is communist.  They should go back to Russia.  NDP views only tax recipients as good and honest citizens, and views tax payers as evil and greedy people for wanting to make money and spend the money they earned for themselves.  Liberal is way to liberal with my tax money.  You know, I can fix eHealth for $1.4Billion, and save the government and Ontario tax payers $600Million.

[buster]

"Green party is communist."

Do you know any Green Party members? One of my friends in Ottawa ran for the green Party. He is, if anything, a capitalistic who runs quite a prosperous business and dislikes unions.

He also spends a great deal of time and money working on saving the natural environment.

In this case William, I'm afraid you are totally wrong.

[Paul Kneeland]

Good Grief, William.

[Paul Kneeland]

I believe Jason won the Contest.

[fox]

I'm sure Jason would have been happy to lose this one.

In Peterborough, the vote was close, about 10% difference between the PC and NDP candidates. And, interesting when you look at the results broken down by precinct. In urban Peterborough, Sean Conway (NDP) won hugely over Dave Smith (PC), but outside of the city, the vote was strongly PC.

I was happy to see Jeff Leal go down. I've never forgiven him for not doing anything to save our downtown high school (PCVS).