Harris-Trump post-debate roundup

[Jason]

Did anyone else see the debate? Thoughts?

To say Trump embarrassed himself and Harris gave him a royal spanking would be understatements.

She baited him several times and he just couldn't resist. I loved her comment about Trump rallies being small and people leaving because they were so bored. His response was gold. Can we say triggered? Yes, yes we can. And that power move with her pushing Trump into shaking her hand. OMG. I think it threw him off his game.

Unless you're a conservative, I highly recommend watching it. My wife couldn't watch outtakes because she felt so bad for Trump.

I'm not saying it will move the dial enough but she will have solidified Democrat support and the donations should be pouring in like gangbusters. She's already far ahead of him in funds. And donations are a good indicator of how committed your supporters are. His supporters aren't going to vote for Harris but some of them might stay home.

[fox]

I thought she creamed him too, but as more neutral commentators mentioned, she has to get her policies out there to convince more fence sitters to vote for her. She was able to do less of that because of the air time she used to bait Trump. I listened to some post-debate interviews with undecided voters, and I was amazed at how many can let Trump go for all of his impropieties and dictatorial tendencies, just because they perceived that they were better off economically when Trump was president.

[buster]

Debate seems the wrong word. But our world has lost it's way. It's become memes and arguments for candidates to win politically, not plans and policies.

It's not much above NFL football forums, where comments range from 'Miami sucks' to 'you know FA about football.' I used to read the forums sometimes, but there is no real information. The writers are miniTrumps.

I did read one beautiful comment about four years ago. 'I wish I had a lower IQ so I could enjoy this forum.'

[Jason]

I appreciate hearing other opinions.

Reuters has this article about a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted right after the debate and it had some interesting numbers. This one caught my attention:

Some 53% of Republican voters in the poll said Trump won the debate, compared to 91% of Democrats who said she was the victor. Among Republicans, 31% said no one won and 14% said Harris got the better of Trump.

And Harris leads Trump by 47%-42% nationally. I know it's the battleground states that decide it and it's still a narrow fight, most narrow in your old stomping grounds, Fox. The article notes that national polls "give important signals on the views of the electorate". I don't know what the signals are but I'll chew on that for a bit.

[fox]

I think we'll have a better idea of the impact of that debate in polls that come out this week. I have no doubt that it helped Harris, even in the battleground states, but I doubt if it was enough to put any one of those states past a virtual tie. Still, it put her more firmly one the map, and she can now better explain her proposed policies in campaign speeches in those states. Her performance also raised the level of enthusiasm of Democrats that can translate into more votes with more door knocking. Let's see where we are in a few weeks.

[Jason]

I agree, Fox.

I was looking at the 2020 numbers and interestingly, there is the same gap between Harris and Trump now as there was on election day between Trump and Biden. But there are fewer of what they considered battleground states now. So the effect of that this time (assuming it holds), I don't know. I don't get why the US seems to do so few polls in the battleground states since that's where it's all decided.

But then again, you could say the same about Canada, maybe worse. We don't do provincial polling in federal elections. However, the election is usually decided by a minority of provinces, the biggest and the most swing provinces: Ontario, Quebec, and BC. And to a worse extent, you don't even have to get 50% to get a province, unlike the US. Well, at least close to 50%. You can win a majority government with only 40% of the vote even if that's only in Ontario Quebec (200 of 343 seats).

[fox]

Did anyone watch the debate yesterday? I did, with a bunch of like-minded people at the 180 Hunter pub. It was actually quite civilized, and I thought both debaters did well at making their points and not taking a big hit on account of their presidential running mates. I knew Vance would do well; he is smart, a good orator, and unlike Trump, he did a lot of preparation. Walz was very good too and got in a lot of good points, especially on abortion and the 2020 election. But he spoke very quickly to get in all of his points, making him look more nervous than Vance. Trying to be objective, I thought it was a tie. If any party benefitted, it would be the Republicans because their candidate actually looked reasonable; something that Walz didn't have to prove. Funny enough, these guys actually seemed to like each other. In many cases, one agreed partly with the other (and partly not), and they shook hands amiably and spoke to one another at the end.

[Jason]

I agree with you on most points although I think Walz could have pressed Vance a little more, especially on the fact that he dodged the question about whether he accepted the result of the 2020 election. Of course, Vance would have dodged it but still should have pushed back against it. The debate was very cordial but maybe a little too cordial. They were too nice to each other but that's probably because they both are generally good people, something I can't say about Trump (nor can anybody be reasonable). But Vance has flip-flopped on so many issues including his calling Trump 'Hitler' to making excuses for his behaviour. Ah, well. I'd rather see more debates like this than the one with Trump and Harris although Trump will make any debate toxic.

I'm still shocked that almost half the US is fine with voting for a convicted felon, a serial liar, and a despicable human being. Why? Because he's a Republican and that's all that matters, apparently.

One clear thing, Harris has the advantage and I don't mean in polling numbers. She is raising by far the most donations (3x as much), the best ground teams and defections from the GOP camp. If Biden could beat Trump in 2020, I can't see how she can't do the same in 2024. She's at least as popular as he was back then. If she takes the states he took or even one or two less, she should pull it off. Fingers crossed.