Omicron will change things. What the early signals may mean... (Ptbo Examiner)

[Jason]

The Examiner shared an opinion piece by a Toronto Star columnist which contains some interesting information about what we know about new variants from the information out of South Africa. Dr. Peter Juni, who's the director of Ontarioââ,¬â,,¢s independent volunteer science table (I previously mentioned them), has been going over some data. This snippet is a bit worrying though we should keep in mind we don't know virulent omicron may be:

"Because this is Covid, though, it is complicated. Even if vaccines remain protective against severe infection, Omicron appears to be extraordinarily transmissible. Cases in South Africa are doubling every two to three days. Juni says if first-wave Covid had a basic reproduction number of 3 ââ,¬â€ meaning one case created three more, on average, in a fully non-immune population with no precautions ââ,¬â€ then Alpha was a 4.5, and Delta is a 7, Omicron appears to be in the 10-15 range, meaning one case can cause 10 to 15 cases with no safety measures. A Christmas party in Oslo resulted in half of a fully vaccinated room getting infected. Measles, for the record, is a 12-18, and is so infections that you could catch it standing in the same room."

But at the article points out even if it wasn't that virulent, the speed at which it could spread alone could be a problem:

There are anecdotal stories of milder symptoms from South Africa, which is worth hoping for. But unless Omicron is much less virulent than Delta ââ,¬â€ perhaps 10 times less in the unvaccinated, according to Juni ââ,¬â€ the increase in transmission rate would likely swamp Ontario hospitals, in the absence of other public health measures.

ââ,¬Å"Thereââ,¬â,,¢s some early indication (of reduced virulence), but it doesnââ,¬â,,¢t help,ââ,¬Â says Juni. ââ,¬Å"The problem is that itââ,¬â,,¢s so transmissible, the sheer fact that our roughly 14 per cent of the population that is unvaccinated could be infected within just a few weeks.ââ,¬Â

So, basically, we don't know but this could be the worst wave yet and could risk overwhelming out health care system. Hospital admissions and ICU admissions are up over the last couple of weeks. Or it might not. Fingers crossed.

[ssfc72]

I believe the Toronto Star, now owns the Peterborough Examiner paper and the KawarthaNow newspaper.

[Jason]

Yeah, I believe they're all owned by Torstar. I meant to include the link to the article but note it's behind a paywall. Although $1.25/week with no commitment is pretty decent even if it's pretty thin paper nowadays. Here's the link:

https://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/ts/opinion/star-columnists/2021/12/03/omicron-will-change-things-what-the-early-signals-may-mean-for-ontario.html