Omicron and more numbers

[Jason]

Here's an article that lists the variants of concern along with the variants of interest that we don't hear about. I was wrong about the one in South America. It was Lambda, not Theta.

[Jason]

I check the Ontario Dashboard almost every day. From the beginning of September to early November, the rate of transmission, or R(t), was below 1 meaning the virus was no longer spreading. The rate was going up sharply and then dropped but it's settled down although it's rising again. The R(t) is estimated to be 1.15 now. One wonders if omicron could have been causing the renewed spread. After all, we didn't know about it then so weren't testing for it.

Not sure if omicron mutated from delta so might have looked as if that's what it was. Active hospital cases have been going up a bit but ICU cases are down. So if Omicron is behind the increased spread, maybe it's less severe than delta.

So many questions. Thoughts?

[fox]

I follow the Covid 19 results posted on CBC for all provinces. While protective measures clearly have a positive effect, my impression is that Covid case numbers at the provincial level are cyclic - they go down and then they go up. Cycles are not synchronized across provinces. Case in point is numbers in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario. Case numbers bottomed in Ontario in early November and have been slowly rising since. The previous peak was in September, although it was nowhere near as high as that of the 3rd wave in April. In Alberta, you also have the 3rd wave peak in April, and it bottomed in July. From then, you get a steady growth curve, with a 4th wave peak at the October, a month after Ontario's peak, but much more severe (because Kenney removed all restrictions in the summer). But since, Alberta's case count has been steadily dropping, and it is now only about 25% higher than Ontario's. Saskatchewan is like Alberta; Manitoba's cycle is a month later than Alberta and Saskatchewan's. Vaccination rates seem to have, at least partly driven the recent drops in Saskatchewan and Alberta. When their cases last peaked, vaccination rates were way behind those of the other provinces, but now, probably as a result of vaccination requirements for admissions and work, their rate of full vaccination are only about 5% behind Ontario's; 2-3% for single vaccinations.

[Jason]

I follow the Covid 19 results posted on CBC for all provinces. While protective measures clearly have a positive effect, my impression is that Covid case numbers at the provincial level are cyclic - they go down and then they go up.

True enough. I expected increases as it got colder. But note that cases in Ontario peaked in early September and then dropped for 3 months but it was still getting colder. And most people had been vaccinated in the summer. The rate of vaccinations dropped precipitously and never really recovered even with the vaccine passports introduction. So why are they increasing now?

The Dashboard page has something I don't think you'll find on the CBC site, at least not regularly, mobility stats and they show that since early September more people have been at home at a steady increase. Nothing drastically changed at the beginning of November. Retail and Recreation mobility levels pretty much stayed the same, same with transit use. So what's driving the increase we've seen since November?

https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/#mobilityhighrisk

I'll add that the reduction associated with vaccination is dropping, too. I'm not alarmed or anything because let's face it, most of the new cases are those who have chosen not to get vaccinated but there is a rise in the vaccinated, too, with no apparent reason. There must be some other factor at play here. I don't think it's probably that omicron has already been here probably coupled with recent waning immunity from the shots that most got in the summer.

[Jason]

I like the CBC, too. I don't watch the across-provincial numbers as closely as you do. Hearing about how badly Alberta has handled the situation is depressing. They're only 25% higher in the number of cases but they only have 1/3rd the population of Ontario! I don't know if I mentioned it but the Dashboard isn't just some blog (in case anyone thought that). Their 'About Us' page says:

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table is a group of scientific experts and health system leaders who evaluate and report on emerging evidence relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic, to inform Ontarioââ,¬â,,¢s response.

The Science Tableââ,¬â,,¢s mandate is to provide weekly summaries of relevant scientific evidence for the COVID-19 Health Coordination Table of the Province of Ontario, integrating information from existing scientific tables, Ontarioââ,¬â,,¢s universities and agencies, and the best global evidence. The Science Table summarizes its findings for the Health Coordination Table and for the public in Science Briefs.

It also has data that I don't usually see on other websites about the relationship between stringency (government limits) and mobility as well as mobility indexes. I do worry about the Christmas season as staying home (if you don't get together with outside family) is low-risk but shopping is high or at least higher risk. I also hope transit use stays about the same. I rely on it and it's considered high risk, too, with no vaccine requirement. Masked but with lots of people who don't seem to understand their noses need to be covered, too (shudder) and young people who don't have as high rates of vaccination and are often too relaxed with social distancing. But not pick on them, others are, too.