Election prediction?

[Jason]

At this point, I won't ask you to estimate seat totals or final percentage but instead the final outcome in terms of who "wins". I'm only giving a week for the poll because further in it's not as much fun.

Incidentally, my wife and I are likely voting tonight or maybe tomorrow.

[buster]

Is this a prediction of who wins the most seats, or who forms the next gov't? If the seats are close, the Liberals might be able to have a coalition, whereas the Reform party probably can't.

[ssfc72]

I think people are going to punish Trudeau for calling an election during the ramping up of the fourth wave of COVID and the Conservatives are going to form the next government.

[Jason]

Is this a prediction of who wins the most seats, or who forms the next gov't? If the seats are close, the Liberals might be able to have a coalition, whereas the Reform party probably can't.

If I understand you correctly, it'd be who has the most seats. Coalitions come later (after the election). I doubt there'd be a coalition anyway between any of the parties. The NDP was already burned once by the Liberals.

[Jason]

I expect that you're right, Bill. I think it was a huge mistake for them to call an election mid-pandemic, especially when they've already had the support of the NDP and a virtual promise by NDP leader Singh that the NDP wouldn't have forced an election. Liberal hubris.

[fox]

My prediction is for a Liberal minority again, and I think that the NDP will support them once more. (Is the alternative better?) My reasoning - now that the Conservatives are in the lead and actually have a decent chance of winning, center and left of center people will be asking themselves whether it's better to punish the Liberals for calling the election, or have a Conservative government with their unpopular stances on Covid passports, gun control and climate change (not necessarily in that order).

[Jason]

Did you vote in the poll, Fox? Be cool to see the numbers reflected in it.

The centre (Queen's English in Canada ) and centre-left people coming together are basically New Democrats voting Liberal. If that happens, it'll be a Liberal majority which will be fine - for Liberals. I really hope it's a Liberal minority because the minorities we've had are usually productive and more progressive than they otherwise would have been.

the Lester B. Pearson minority governments of 1963ââ,¬â€œ65 and 1965ââ,¬â€œ68 won over the NDP with legislation that included a considerable expansion of social programs. The Pierre Trudeau minority government of 1972ââ,¬â€œ74 wooed the NDP by enacting, or by committing itself to enact, regulation of election expenses and the establishment of Petro-Canada and the Foreign Investment Review Agency. The minority government of Paul Martin (2004ââ,¬â€œ06) clung to power with the support of the NDP, in part by amending its proposed budget to increase spending on social programs and defer tax cuts for large corporations.

(Source: "Federal Minority Governments", "Minority Governments in Canada", The Canadian Encyclopedia)

and ...

Though politicians frequently claim that their parties need a majority in order to carry out their program, this has seldom been true. Though never holding a majority, the Lester B. Pearson governments were among the most productive in Canadian history, enacting universal health care, the Canada Pension Plan, the Canada Assistance Plan, and the Canada Student Loans Plan, as well as unifying the armed forces and creating a new national flag.

(Source: Source: "Significance", "Minority Governments in Canada", The Canadian Encyclopedia).

And yes, I am certain I don't know how to properly cite sources but hopefully it's clear enough.

My first choice would be a formal Liberal-NDP coalition in either case (Liberal or Conservative minority) but if there's a Conservative minority, especially so.

The problem is that most Canadians don't understand our parliamentary system well enough to know that even if you win the most seats, you don't automatically have the right to form the government. You just get the first shot at it. So if it was a Conservative minority, a Liberal-NDP coalition would be construed as an unethical coup, like the last time. So the Conservatives will govern and we can thank the Liberals for their usual arrogance.

Coalitions should be how parties govern. Since we moved to a 3+ party system, no party has received 50%+1 of the vote. Yet, even getting 40% of the vote gives a single party 100% of the power. I have a huge problem with that. I'm surprised that nobody else does. It only benefits the parties, not us.

[fox]

Yes I voted. I think I was the first.

[Jason]

Yes I voted. I think I was the first.

No, that was me. But I had the advantage since I made it. Btw, any member can create a poll if they like.

So we have two votes but four have commented.

[fox]

Debate was weird last night; format not great for making real points (as opposed to sound bites). It might have hurt Trudeau, but I can't help but think that although O'Toole didn't get in trouble for his answers, his demeanor might have hurt him. He had this funny smile on his face throughout. Looked very fake and might have turned some people off. It's a bit early to judge from the polls, but the CBC Poll Tracker, with two new polls that included responses yesterday (probably before the debate), saw the Liberals move up a bit and the Conservatives down slightly. But the biggest movement was the NDP losing 0.5%. What I think is going on is that left of center people are contemplating a possible Conservative victory and are now starting to move to the Liberals to prevent that from happening.

[Jason]

I don't find any of the debates we've had the last few years very good. You can't expect to get anything other than sound bites when they only have 2 minutes to reply. But at least this one had less chaos. But just like, with question period, nobody answered the questions that were asked of them except for the Blanchet even if he couldn't shut up about Quebec being a "nation". It's funny how almost every debate I've seen with the BQ, the leader has made the most sense and been the most straightforward. Maybe you can  be more sincere when you know you have no possibility of forming government.

I don't think 0.5% really shows any movement once you take into account the margin of error. It certainly won't matter in terms of seats unless it's happening in a lot of close ridings.  The other thing is that how many people have voted already by mail? And which party were they leading toward? My wife and I have already voted but we just mailed our ballots in.

I believe the worst outcome would be for any party to get a majority. with ANY party. I'm so sick of 40% of votes getting 100% of the power. Most MPs that are elected don't even have the majority of support in their own ridings, except for parts of the West like Alberta where Cons usually win over 60% of the riding vote. I hope the NDP also makes as a condition of their support for the Liberals (should they only get a minority) in changing the voting system to a proportionally-based one. If it's a Conservative minority, the Liberals won't try to bring it down with a coalition. The Red and the Blue care more about getting power, all the power, then doing what is best for Canada. And our voting system gives no reason to work with the other parties. You're just biding your time until you get into majority territory and then call another election.

Sure, it'd probably be worse to have the Conservatives although with this batch, it's hard to tell the difference between them. There really isn't much of a gulf in policy. And the Liberals are promising daycare for the umpteenth time (they've been doing that since 1988 for those of creating track). Oh, and they'll look into Pharmacare when they have a moment.

[buster]

"The Red and the Blue care more about getting power, all the power, then doing what is best for Canada."

This will do little to promote polite political discourse in this thread. And like most generalizations, is wrong because of it's too simple.

And most of us prefer to be persuaded gently, not hit over the head.

[Jason]

Hyperbole is a well-known method of getting points across. I exaggerated to draw attention to the point. Focusing on how someone says something isn't half as important as what they say. And "gentle" persuasion isn't always enough. Many people change views exactly when their beliefs are strongly challenged but they may get offended. Sometimes that's necessary.

[Jason]

It's a bit early to judge from the polls, but the CBC Poll Tracker, with two new polls that included responses yesterday (probably before the debate), saw the Liberals move up a bit and the Conservatives down slightly. But the biggest movement was the NDP losing 0.5%. What I think is going on is that left of center people are contemplating a possible Conservative victory and are now starting to move to the Liberals to prevent that from happening.

I just looked at the CBC Poll Tracker after your comment. 0.2 points between the Tories and Grits now. Could it get any closer? If it stays like this, I don't think the NDP will bleed any more support. I'm not sure if there was a new poll? The NDP drop is 0.3% as I see it now. I doubt they'll win any seats if the support is fairly even across the country but I find it concerning that the PPC's have over 6% support. They seem to be the alt-right in Canada. Their leader may try and hide it but their supporters, are aggressive and rude, not just in the protests but any contact I've had with them online.

But for all we know, the polls can be up to, 2.5% off, I believe. Previous polls have been off quite a bit in elections around the country so who knows? I doubt they'd be off enough to get a party to majority territory but it's likely either party could have a minority.

Interesting that the Conservatives may be denied their majority because of the PPC and the Liberals, because of the NDP. Maybe the Greens will come up through the middle.

[fox]

.... I doubt they'll win any seats if the support is fairly even across the country but I find it concerning that the PPC's have over 6% support. They seem to be the alt-right in Canada. ....

I have mixed feelings about this. On the one hand, this party's policies and tactics really concern me. On the other hand, the political situation without them was really imbalanced, with three parties left of center and one right of center, making it easy for the Conservatives to have a majority with 60% or more of the population opposed to their policies. Having the PPC Party also means that the PCs have to move more to the center of the political spectrum to attract middle-of-the-roaders. I believe they have done that, and it's why the polls show that they have a chance to win the election.