COVID-19 - How much of a risk is it?

[Jason]

I started a new topic because I find the numbers interesting even though there are many hypothetical ones and it merits its own discussion, at least hopefully. You will decide.

The topic is related to this article written by the Director of the Yale Prevention Research Center. Though this was written a month ago, I found at least the nature of the calculations to make sense but the numbers are 10x greater now than they were then. But the point I find most interesting is that we know the actual number of those infected is higher than the confirmed cases which means the fatality rate is actually a lower percentage than we think it is. They know this because they have had people test positive who showed no symptoms whatsoever or whose symptoms were so mild that they just thought it was a cold. The question is how much higher.

I do think the number he uses for the infection rate, how many people are infected as a result of close contact is too low but then we know more now than we did then. I also think his reference to the flu is interesting and I've used it in regards to total number of fatalities but as I've learned since, this virus is more contagious and has a higher fatality rate. At least we think it is, we just don't know without enough testing. South Korea, which had widespread testing, found that the fatality rate was much lower than the 2-4% talked about commonly in the media. Indeed, in Canada, it looks to be around 1%. With the flu, people often use the 0.1% number but we don't know that with great confidence either. I've seen fatality rates in medical literature as high as 2%. It's hard to decide what the number is because it's often conflated with pneumonia since most people don't die directly from the flu which is also similar to COVID.

But, again, unlike COVID-19 it's still not as infectious. The other difference from the flu is that flu sufferers are generally spread throughout the season, not bunched together like COVID-19 is, so we're taking much more tough measures because we don't want to have all the cases occurring at once. If this bunching happened with the flu, we'd probably have the the police going around knocking on doors to make sure they were staying home and likely no one would be allowed without a confirmed negative test.

If you've read this far, I applaud you. Unlike Buster, I don't have that writing artistry that pulls you in with every word. But I hope you still find some value here and I'd love to hear what people think about what he is saying, the numbers and such.