Montreal turns to coercion to stop the spread (National Post)

[Jason]

In Montreal, they're going to be really cracking down on gathering in groups with fines from $1,000 to $6,000. Police have been giving people warnings, some people the same warnings over and over. They've gotten 7,000 tips from people there about people flouting the law so far. So the local authorities have now told police that everyone knows the rules and that we're beyond awareness, now it's time to use the stick.

https://nationalpost.com/news/with-one-quarter-of-canadas-confirmed-covid-19-cases-montreal-turns-to-coercion-to-stop-the-spread

As the headline says, Montreal is home to 1/4 of the cases in Canada!

This bugs the hell out of me. While most of us are staying home and protecting other people and ourselves by doing so, we still have people who just don't get it. I heard recently about a children's birthday party being held in a park - I forget where. Don't they even care about their children if not themselves or anyone else?

[buster]

Many understand this but not all.

1. If the hospitals melt down from covid, many of the deaths resulting will not be from the disease, but because choices have to be made for facilities. A friend of mine has cancer of the bowel, and he has had his operation delayed until after the pandemic. It was supposed to be in early April.

2. Most people understand linear growth, but not exponential growth. With the spread of covid, the number of total cases is not that important - the important number is the 'doubling time'.

A Simple Math Lesson ( for those who may be uncertain what to watch for on the news)

Linear Growth - This occurs when you get the same number of new cases each day for a long time. All we have to do is take care of this increase (patients in), and fit them into the spaces from the discharged (patients out). We can live with this balanced intake/out-take for a long time.

Exponential Growth - This occurs when we have something like rabbits without foxes, or bacteria, or covid. What is the doubling time, or how long  does it take for the population of rabbits to be double from the original number of rabbits, assuming no predators? The key number with exponential growth is DOUBLING TIME.

The doubling time for covid in Canada has been approximately 5 days. At present we have 12,000 cases in Canada. If this stays consistent then in 5 days we will have 24,000 cases. Well, not terrible, except in 10 days we will have 48,000, and in 15 days we will have almost 100,000 cases.

Future Covid Cases = (Cases now) x (2x2x2x2x2....) where the number of 2's depends on your guess as to how many doubling periods there will be. If we cannot bend the curve, and it runs with with the same doubling period of 5 days, we will at the end of two months have more than 50 million cases, which would be tough for Canada  .

So what we are looking for is flattening the curve, which is easier to understand if we say Increase the doubling time.

Look for any news on changing the doubling time. Easiest way to make sense of the numbers.

[Jason]

So you're saying they weren't good at math? I hope one of them wasn't formerly a student of yours, Buster! 

But yes, I think people don't understand it, but they don't really need to understand it, just read a newspaper once in a while or read the news and they tell you what to do and why (the simple version). The problem, I think, is that they don't take it seriously, even when they're told how serious it is. Even when they see empty streets and parks, even when they see most of the small businesses closing and retirement homes in lockdown and restaurants forced to only deliver or allow pickup. I mean, if you don't get it after all that, you're either (1) an idiot, or (2) don't care about anyone else other than yourself. While I respect your math, people don't need to understand the math to do the right thing. But it helps.

[Jason]

There's a reference to doubling time in this article, Buster. Four days here and in the rest of the province. But I suspect we won't see much change in it until the virus either burns itself out by infecting everyone that it can infect or the province and/or federal government locks things down even more (or *everyone* actually does what they're told).

[buster]

Something we haven't seen much about so far is how our country, or any country, is going to play the endgame.
The exponential nature of the spreading makes it hard to imagine what happens when we 'get the outbreak under control'.

Once we have (?) an effective vaccine we should be fine, but that will be 1 or 2 years from now. So if it's sort of totally under control, do we send people back to work and resume previous activities?

100 cases of unknown infections starts the whole doubling process again.

We will probably see more articles on this soon appearing in the press and media. Lots of time to think about it.

[Jason]

I expect, that like most flu viruses, it will diminish in the summer and then come back again in the Fall, although that may just be in the northern hemisphere. I don't think warmer countries are going to get any respite. I think they will be looking for the flattening of the curve.

Regarding the exponential nature, keep in mind that as the pandemic progresses, there are fewer and fewer people to infect. I was watching a video some time ago with questions about the virus and this doctor was saying that eventually, the people who have been infected will reach 45% of the population and then the numbers will start falling off because herd immunity will kick in. So even if we did nothing, the growth rate will decline, so if we let up after the peak, the decline may be slower but it will still decline.

Some people might think all these measures are to stop the spread of the pandemic but it's really to slow down the spread so the system can cope. I know we probably get this but I don't think a lot of people do. While it'd be nice to avoid most people getting COVID, we know that's not achievable.

Btw, the doctor who assessed me said that I likely don't have COVID so they didn't recommend a test since their resources are stretched. And he said even if I did have it, he wouldn't tell me to do anything more than what I'm already doing, self-isolating. Not the way everyone uses it, but what is actually meant by it. Don't go out for 14 days, for anything except emergencies. Ask other people to do drop-offs, etc. 11 days to go.

[Jason]

Something we haven't seen much about so far is how our country, or any country, is going to play the endgame.
The exponential nature of the spreading makes it hard to imagine what happens when we 'get the outbreak under control'.

Once we have (?) an effective vaccine we should be fine, but that will be 1 or 2 years from now. So if it's sort of totally under control, do we send people back to work and resume previous activities?

100 cases of unknown infections starts the whole doubling process again.

We will probably see more articles on this soon appearing in the press and media. Lots of time to think about it.

Your question is addressed about 6 minutes into this video. Btw, this guy puts out great material and I highly recommend it. His regular videos go into the research on various topics he covers, not just one study but multiple studies with explanations of the medical terminology where necessary.