Coronavirus questions answered by Andre Picard (Globe & Mail)

[Jason]

Some great questions and answers in this article about this new coronavirus. I mentioned before to friends that the flu is much worse and more prevalent. Picard addresses this in one of the questions:

Isn’t the flu worse than coronavirus?

In sheer numbers, influenza has a much greater impact than coronavirus. Of the billions who contract the flu every year, about three to five million require hospitalization, and somewhere between 290,000 and 650,000 die â€" compared to roughly 100,000 cases and 3,500 deaths from COVID-19.

[buster]

Excellent point. If we can keep the number of infections low, we'll be fine. If it gets to the millions, there will be a lot of grief. If the spread gets too far out of hand it will be real life 'Wack a Mole'.

2% death rate is huge when the number of infections gets large, especially for people my age. (Most deaths seem to be among 'mature' people, the reverse of the Spanish Flu.)

[Jason]

True. The high death rate is mostly in China from what I've read elsewhere - they don't have enough hospital beds for those that need the care still and they didn't inform the public, even denied it, so many more people would have contracted it and not sought hospital attention.

I don't think in Canada there have been any deaths although a few have been hospitalized. But yeah, I know it's a small number here, actually lower than most Western nations. I think we learned a lot from SARS about how to contain it.

And the death rate where I quoted is actually higher for the flu even using the lowest rate. Although elsewhere in the article it says it's higher so it's a bit confusing.

If I were you, I'd stay from large groups. We're small so it doesn't count. ;-) And don't go on any cruises.

As far as how far it spreads, who knows? Borders are already being closed and travel advisories or outright restrictions are being enacted even here in Canada.

[buster]

Picked this up on a random science site:
--The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

And unfortunately for me:
-- The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69

So it does appear to be 10 to 15 times more lethal than the usual flu. Worth checking out Italy if you're interested enough, a Western nation that's been hit pretty hard.

[Jason]

I did say it was higher than the flu and mostly in China which you've confirmed.

But the flu is far more pervasive. You're more likely to get the flu and even with the reduced rate of death, you're still more likely to get the flu and therefore die from it. Millions of people get the flu and therefore even at 0.1% the absolute numbers are vastly higher. This flu season, which isn't over, in the US has resulted in a minimum of 34 million people getting it, 16 million medical visits, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths (Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm ).

The bottom line is in relative terms, you're far more likely to get the flu. Healthline lists the flu and pneumonia as #8 cause of deaths in the US. It'd be riskier if you got COVID-19 but you're far more likely to get the flu. And the flu also has an elevated risk to the elderly. Just keep washing your hands and you'll likely be fine.

[buster]

It's interesting that the NBA, where billions of dollars are moved back and forth, has cancelled its season. One of the huge hits the economy is facing. Cinemas and hockey probably will be affected too. Washington DC shut down, a big tourist attraction. The DOW another steep downhill ski run.

Good television drama  . And soon we'll have the hurricane season. Wonder why humans like terrible things so much?

This market channel is on the Internet from about 9:00 to 4:00 Mon - Fri. Many knowledgeable guests. Lately they have had health specialists, political observers, and economic specialists. A common theme - Work on the disease: where are the test kits,how are the day to day workers going to be affected? And you can watch your portfolio shrink in real time.

https://finance.yahoo.com/

[Jason]

I saw the 20% dip in the stock market. Yikes. Although perception means more than anything in stocks. But still, you're right. People are going to want to avoid group environments which includes those events and so the prices are going to fall. But at least it's not 2008, at least not yet.