Ontario Provincial Election October 6th, 2011

[admin]

This is an interesting article showing that based on one riding projection model, the PCs can't win a majority with either of those poll results:

Perhaps most significant is that in neither poll do the PCs have enough support to win a majority government, according to ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat projection model.

The Angus-Reid numbers would result in a Tory minority with 52 seats, two short of the majority threshold. The Liberals would win 34 and the NDP 21. The only silver lining for Hudak is that this sort of spread would make it very difficult for Dalton McGuinty to hold on to power.

The Forum poll would result in a much more fractured legislature, with the PCs taking 44 seats to the Liberals’ 39. Hudak would be hard pressed to find enough support from either the Liberal or NDP caucuses (the latter numbering 24 MPPs) to govern. This sort of scenario would more likely result in an NDP-supported Liberal minority government.

( http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/09/02/ontario-election-tim-hudak-dalton-mcguinty-poll-majority_n_944845.html )

[HappyPaul]

Very good, but I think you meant to say, "Can't win a Majority".

[admin]

Very good, but I think you meant to say, "Can't win a Majority".

Oops. Yes, thanks. I've corrected it.

[harry]

Being a Conservative leader isn't always easy:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1049067--cohn-will-tory-trojan-horse-hurt-hudak-s-crusade

[admin]

The Landowners should form their own party or join the Libertarian one if it's still around.

[HappyPaul]

Our own Tea Party here in Ontario. Who knew?

[buster]

This group is a bit distressing to me because if the Conservatives win, they will apply policy pressure on the other members of the Tories who may not be so radical. And that will affect all of us in I think an unpleasant way.

[admin]

The Tories who aren't so radical have their own party, Paul. It's called the Liberal Party.

[HappyPaul]

If so, those are the kind of Tories I can live with. I'd prefer the NDP though.

[admin]

The Liberals should like the latest poll that has them 11 points ahead of the PCs. Yes, you read that right, ahead:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/on-the-hustings/why-dalton-mcguinty-is-smiling-poll-has-liberals-with-11-point-lead/article2159193/

I'm OK with the Libs winning another term but let's not be hasty and give them a majority. Actually, I'd like to never see a majority government again. It's not right that 40% of the voters choose the party that gets 100% of the power.

Of course, all these polls should be taken with a grain of salt at this point. I don't think most people are really paying that close attention yet.

[admin]

ThreeHundredEight.com is now predicting a bare Liberal majority:

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/09/slim-mcguinty-lead-means-slim-mcguinty.html

This should make Harry and Paul happy. I still don't trust Liberals with a majority. Too much focus on tax cuts, too little on job creation. But I'd be lying if I said I didn't like their energy policy (mostly).

[HappyPaul]

I would be happier with a Liberal Minority; that way the NDP will share in the Power.

[admin]

You may get your wish. Polls right now are showing the PCs still ahead overall but behind in Toronto which has probably a third of the seats. That means the government that wins the popular vote may not form the government. Not sure when that happened the last time.

Eric Grenier from the website ThreeHundredEight.com which has had many articles in both the Huffington Post and the Globe and Mail has some interesting information. As the election goes along, he uses all the polls but gives older ones less weighting and newer ones more. His projection as of today has:

Lib   50
PC   36
NDP 21

Note that 54 seats is required for a majority.

Read the Globe article here:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ontario-election/hudaks-toronto-stumble-weighs-down-ontario-tories-after-two-weeks/article2170802/

And ThreeHundredEight.com for updated info and analysis regularly:

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

I expect Tim Hudak and the PCs to really start getting nasty now, not that calling new Canadians "foreign workers" wasn't bad enough. He will probably warn of a Socialist alliance to scare right-wing Liberals into voting for the PCs. McGuinty will probably say that potential tough times are still ahead of Ontario with the situation in the US and Europe and people need to vote for experience and a steady hand on the economy.

I like elections like this. You never know that might happen.

[admin]

I called it.

Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Tim Hudak has ruled out “secret backroom deals” to govern in a coalition with the Liberals or New Democrats in the event of a minority government.

In his most pointed language yet on what he would do if no party wins a majority of seats, Hudak attacked Horwath and the Liberal leader.

“I have no idea if Dalton McGuinty has been in secret talks with Andrea Horwath,” Hudak said Thursday in Oakville. “Here’s my approach: I have none and I will not. I’m actually going to do something unique here, it sounds like — I’m going to let voters decide.

“If you’re looking for someone who’s going to do the backroom deal, who’s going to do the secret agreement, that’s Dalton McGuinty, that’s not me,” he charged.

( http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1058006--horwath-open-to-talks-in-minority-government?bn=1 )

Right from the Stephen Harper playbook. Scare people with the coalition word.

[HappyPaul]

Yeah, Hudak hasn't got an original bone in his body.  Let's hope the CONS drop a few more points so that he can become a footnote to History.